Largest County to vote for Trump

[Tekken_Guy]

What will be the largest county that Trump wins this year?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Miami Dade . I think Marciopa is super close though

[Mr. Smith]

Collin, TX...unless Denton is bigger.

[super6646]

I think at this point he flips Miami-Dade.

[Existing in the context]

Probably Dade and what a shame it would be. The Democrats where really on one way march to winning the core counties of America's 50 largest metroes. And here this county is voting more Republican than Oklahoma OK. Got skyscrapers and monorails and here Miami being more conservative than a place aint even got a Maggianos.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Most likely, Miami-Dade.

[It's Time.]

Dade county, EV numbers point to Trump approaching DeSantis numbers there

[William]

If Trump wins Arizona, which it looks like he will, he'll probably narrowly win Maricopa county.

If not, it'll likely be Dade or Tarrant.

[iceman]

most likely Maricopa

[William]

I also don't think there's any scenario where it could be Orange, CA... even if Trump wins Orange (possible but not likely). I just can't see a Red Orange and Blue Maricopa happening.

[The End of History]

Probably Dade and what a shame it would be. The Democrats where really on one way march to winning the core counties of America's 50 largest metroes. And here this county is voting more Republican than Oklahoma OK. Got skyscrapers and monorails and here Miami being more conservative than a place aint even got a Maggianos.

It’s not that surprising that Miami-Dade will vote for Trump this year considering that it’s full of Far-Right Anti-Communist Cuban emigres, and that it nearly voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, which combined with all of the Old White Republicans flooding into Florida and the fact that Non-Cuban Hispanics are swinging Republican as well, it never made any sense that Democrats thought Florida was going to become a Blue State just because it is diverse and voted narrowly for Obama, but that was obviously a result of the “Demographics are Destiny” era when it was assumed every Majority-minority State was guaranteed to vote like California, which in hindsight was extremely naive and historically illiterate as every historical wave of immigrants has eventually assimilated into “Whiteness”, and it is now obvious that Hispanics and Asians today are the Irish and Italians of the early/mid 20th century.

You can even see a parallel between the hysteria of “Mexican drug cartels” and the Italian mafia, alongside the more obvious parallels of the late 19th/early 20th century paranoia of Irish/Italians/Slavs taking over America with modern fears about the Mexican border/“illegal aliens”, and the late 19th/early 20th century Urban Democratic machines using these groups for ethnic bloc voting in big cities only for them to eventually move to the suburbs and vote Republican is obviously similar to the failed “Demographics are Destiny” approach.

[Northwesterner]

Miami-Dade seems like the obvious one.

[walleye26]

I said Miami Dade since I think Harris keeps Maricopa. Otherwise Hillsborough would be a decent contender since I think Harris also keeps Tarrant.

[Existing in the context]

I said Miami Dade since I think Harris keeps Maricopa. Otherwise Hillsborough would be a decent contender since I think Harris also keeps Tarrant.

I think that Miami Dade would flip before Hillsborough.

[HillGoose]

does alaska's census areas count? bcuz if so it's definitely one of them, that state is HUGE

[Del Tachi]

Tarrant. Harris will win Maricopa and Miami-Dade, even if she's losing both AZ/FL.

[....................]

I don't understand why Maricopa is even so close. I know they have alot of people that retire their, I know they have a large mormon population, but I don't get how a county of 4.5 million people can be so close. Think Harris narrowly wins it by like a point but that is super close for a large county.

It has almost 2.5 million more people than Miami dade, and no cubans.

I mean 45k last time win for Biden is nothing for a county that large. Probably a similar win for Harris.

[Tintrlvr]

I voted for Suffolk, NY. Don't understand the support for Miami-Dade; it's not 2022 in Florida. On this list, Kern is the only one that Trump obviously wins (I guess intentionally). I think Denton is more likely than Suffolk to vote for Trump, but Suffolk is larger and still more than 50% to vote for Trump so chose Suffolk. Pinellas is also more than 50% to vote for Trump.

[Bismarck]

I’m more confident he wins Suffolk than Maricopa or Miami Dade.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Trump is more likely to win Maricopa, AZ than Miami-Dade, Florida, and Maricopa, AZ is bigger. So I'm going with Maricopa.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I don't understand why Maricopa is even so close. I know they have alot of people that retire their, I know they have a large mormon population, but I don't get how a county of 4.5 million people can be so close. Think Harris narrowly wins it by like a point but that is super close for a large county.

It has almost 2.5 million more people than Miami dade, and no cubans.

I mean 45k last time win for Biden is nothing for a county that large. Probably a similar win for Harris.

Maricopa County is HUGE in terms of size. Thus, it includes a lot of conservative-leaning suburbs around Phoenix.

[GAinDC]

I'm gonna be bold and say Los Angeles County, CA

[....................]

I don't understand why Maricopa is even so close. I know they have alot of people that retire their, I know they have a large mormon population, but I don't get how a county of 4.5 million people can be so close. Think Harris narrowly wins it by like a point but that is super close for a large county.

It has almost 2.5 million more people than Miami dade, and no cubans.

I mean 45k last time win for Biden is nothing for a county that large. Probably a similar win for Harris.

Maricopa County is HUGE in terms of size. Thus, it includes a lot of conservative-leaning suburbs around Phoenix.

Yes. But it always blows my mind how a county so large could stay red for so long. You would think a county that large would start to get very blue the larger it gets. I know Miami is large and getting redder but I know because of the larger Cuban population. So it makes sense. She is going to win Maricopa by a point and that’s really shocking for a place of 4.5 million people. It seems like the suburbs of Dallas are going to get way bluer than Maricopa and they have way less people. Or Georgia. It seems like Maricopa should be more like Cobb or Gwinnett counties. I know they are whiter and older but seems like they should be voting dem by 10 rather than 1.

[TDAS04]

Orange County, CA would be safe D even with Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

[Tintrlvr]

I don't understand why Maricopa is even so close. I know they have alot of people that retire their, I know they have a large mormon population, but I don't get how a county of 4.5 million people can be so close. Think Harris narrowly wins it by like a point but that is super close for a large county.

It has almost 2.5 million more people than Miami dade, and no cubans.

I mean 45k last time win for Biden is nothing for a county that large. Probably a similar win for Harris.

Maricopa County is HUGE in terms of size. Thus, it includes a lot of conservative-leaning suburbs around Phoenix.

Yes. But it always blows my mind how a county so large could stay red for so long. You would think a county that large would start to get very blue the larger it gets. I know Miami is large and getting redder but I know because of the larger Cuban population. So it makes sense. She is going to win Maricopa by a point and that’s really shocking for a place of 4.5 million people. It seems like the suburbs of Dallas are going to get way bluer than Maricopa and they have way less people. Or Georgia. It seems like Maricopa should be more like Cobb or Gwinnett counties. I know they are whiter and older but seems like they should be voting dem by 10 rather than 1.

It has been a retirement destination. That trend is declining (the retirement communities aren't really growing so much in Phoenix at this point, although there is a constant supply of new retirees to replace the dead ones still; I do wonder if in a decade or so some of the retirement communities in the Phoenix area might struggle to fill spots to the point of having to get rid of or lower age limitations), but it kept the county Republican much longer than it might otherwise have been.

Which retirees also matters. Historically Miami got New York retirees who were pretty Democratic. But Phoenix has always gotten conservative retirees from around the West (even places like Orange County, CA that are still quite Republican in the upper age brackets and were rock-ribbed Republican a generation ago) and to a lesser extent the Midwest.