Closest state outside of the Big 7

[Roll Roons]

Which is it? Being intentionally generous with states I'm listing as options.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Texas.

[Mr. Smith]

NH

[vbfox]

Texas. Because the state's growth will make it a swing state in 2028 or 2032 and there may be a significant number of disaffected Rs not voting for Trump.

[Malikconcep]

Texas Trump is gonna win it by 5-4 points.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wow, this is actually a hard question.  I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say Virginia.

[Interlocutor]

If the night isn't going Trump's way, Texas.

If the night isn't going Harris' way, New Hampshire.

I voted Texas.

[Existing in the context]

Texas the only state I see on here voting below 5%

[Talk Elections Oracle]

Iowa or New Mexico.

[Don't Be A Carrot Vote For Garrett]

New Mexico, easily.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

New Mexico, easily.

New Mexico's ability to swing/trend R is quite overrated. The Albuquerque area isn't likely to shift massively R and if anything its relatively higher share of college educated types should make it more difficult for Rs.

[Kabam]

Texas seems to be the obvious answer, but I will go with a surprise and say Alaska.

[Accordion Hazard]

Reminder of actual closest outside Big 7 in 2020:

FL=3.36
TX=5.58
MN=7.11
NH=7.35
OH=8.03
IA=8.20
ME=9.07

Its not too surprising TX is the favorite. Both polling and EV strongly suggest that FL will move to the right enough to make TX closest by default, and TX itself is expected to trend leftward. Most of the others are expected to get further, not closer, and getting a lot closer would be a bit of an upset.

Meanwhile even if Selzer is correct, if IA is genuinely Harris+3 then TX might well be within 3 points itself and still be closest.

[Comrade Funk]

If the night isn't going Trump's way, Texas.

If the night isn't going Harris' way, New Hampshire.

I voted Texas.

[Steve from Lambeth]

On why I didn't put any states as Lean or Tilt R in the Final Prediction Thread, but instead had a lot of second-tier Republican battlegrounds at Likely R:

I'd love to put Florida here - Venezuelans, Puerto Ricans and Haitians live in larger numbers here than any other state; abortion is on the ballot; there's a Senate race - but the signs on the ground just do not point to the Democrats caring about this state.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Wow, this is actually a hard question.  I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say Virginia.

Yeah, it is a hard question because a couple options to choose from. Like you said, I could see either VA, but also NH, MN, and NM being super close. An upset can’t be ruled out.

[PeteB]

I voted OH, which almost no-one is considering, but which imho will be the surprise of the night.  With polls showing the midwestern states trending Harris' way, the Selzer poll giving IA to Harris by 3 points and a very close recent OH poll (Miami University - Trump + 3), I could see a very close result in OH.  In fact, it does not make any sense to think that OH will not follow the regional trend of MI, WI, PA, and even IA.  I could see a result, where OH will be within 2-3% (likely for Trump, but at this point, a Harris win would not surprise me either).

[SWE]

Texas or Ohio

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Texas

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Texas.

Scratch that, Texas, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio would be among the closest.

[iceman]

bump! most of the takes here didn’t aged up very well

[Roll Roons]

bump! most of the takes here didn’t aged up very well

I should have listed the good old Dirty Jerz as an option...

[iceman]

New Hampshire and Minnesota in the end were the correct answers

[Samof94]

NH was the state that voted for Bush the first time, but not the second. Trump NEARLY got it in 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

NH

Called it!