Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Calgacus]

Rosen still technically has a path to victory but so does Lake

[Tekken_Guy]

Rosen still technically has a path to victory but so does Lake

Lake needs Trump to pull out to a 7-point lead in AZ in order to win.

[Splash]

I disagree. Any kind of bulwark against Trump — preventing an ACA repeal bill from coming to the floor, chief among them — would be a welcome relief.

Outside of tax cuts, I'm not sure the House GOP will be able to pass anything of consequence unless they have 225+ seats, especially on health care. The fissures within the conference are still there.

Unfortunately, however, we can probably kiss the ACA enhanced premium tax credits that were previously extended until the end of 2025 goodbye. At least Republicans will get the blame for the premium hikes.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Does anybody have a good read on CO-08? Caraveo is clinging to a small lead with 78% in.

Based on what’s left, she should be okay

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

Good thread on the California counts.

https://x.com/CA_120/status/1854293477162664373

In the competitive CA Congressional election, many have the Dems behind, or ahead by a tiny margin.  But there are so many ballots still to count, probably about 40% in each district.

And here's the rub: these ballots come in three sets, and the composition of voters changes. 🧵

The first set is those mailed ballots, which in the old days were much more Republican, but now, since 2020, are a mix.  In these ballots, Democrats did much better - on average 7-points better.  And there were a lot of votes - on average 145k per district.

Then came the in-person ballots - these are cast at vote centers and largely Republicans who don't want to vote by mail.  The results in the races show it.  Republican advantages were, on average 22-points!  But, this was a smaller set of voters, on average about 50k in each.

The final set is the late mailed, late dropped off ballots, those postmarked by election day and received, processed and tabulated in the coming weeks.  This is a big group, like the first.  On average there should be about 120k in each district.  And more Democratic.

Where these races end up is unknown, but what we do know is they all start with good Democratic numbers, hit a wall of Republican same-day voters, and now they wait... and it looks like eight of the nine will likely swing left as the ballots are counted.

If you are media, take a moment to look back at 2022 and how these races shaped up.  I will be providing more data as we get it in from counties to help us understand the partisan, age, ethnic composition of outstanding ballots.

[Minnesota Mike]

AZ Sen has me a little nervous. Pima just dropped 40K and Gallego only won them by 1%.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1854312276976689351

[henster]

I disagree. Any kind of bulwark against Trump — preventing an ACA repeal bill from coming to the floor, chief among them — would be a welcome relief.

Outside of tax cuts, I'm not sure the House GOP will be able to pass anything of consequence unless they have 225+ seats, especially on health care. The fissures within the conference are still there.

Unfortunately, however, we can probably kiss the ACA enhanced premium tax credits that were previously extended until the end of 2025 goodbye. At least Republicans will get the blame for the premium hikes.

Thinking about things more I feel a little better in terms of how much the GOP can actually get done. I think full scale repeal of IRA is unlikely along with them messing with the CHIPS Act, stuff like abolishing the Department of Education is not happening. Only thing I worry about is given the size of their senate majority I think there's nothing stopping RFK Jr from  getting confirmed to like the HHS or FDA.

[LimoLiberal]

Caraveo's going to win:

https://twitter.com/dcwoodruff/status/1854316831818887514

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

AZ Sen has me a little nervous. Pima just dropped 40K and Gallego only won them by 1%.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1854312276976689351

Has me nervous as well.

Need to figure out what types of ballots Pima was reporting. If it's still ED that drop could be fine for Gallego.

But no one seems to actually know any specifics.

[Calgacus]

Rosen still technically has a path to victory but so does Lake

Lake needs Trump to pull out to a 7-point lead in AZ in order to win.

With the trend of the later drops this doesn't seem impossible, just unlikely

[Tekken_Guy]

AZ Sen has me a little nervous. Pima just dropped 40K and Gallego only won them by 1%.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1854312276976689351

Has me nervous as well.

Need to figure out what types of ballots Pima was reporting. If it's still ED that drop could be fine for Gallego.

But no one seems to actually know any specifics.

I think Gallego will be fine.

Trump will need to win Arizona by 7-8 to pull Lake across the finish line, and I can’t see that happening, and I struggle to see him get past 5-6 at best.

That being said a Lake win will catapult her to near the top of Vance’s Veepstakes in 2028.

[Banana Republican]

Best case scenario for Dems right now is 218-217 which is really just a majority on paper and not really a workable one especially against a Republican President & Senate. I'm hoping for a slim GOP majority they seem way more dysfunctional and its a better case for Dems that GOP had a trifecta and couldn't get anything done.

It's a bit too cute to hope for a narrow GOP majority. One thing you should keep in mind is that huge numbers of voters - especially lower-info voters who are more likely to be swing voters - do not know which party controls the House/Senate etc at any particular time.

So thinking that voters (or at least a lot of the persuadable ones) will care about the difference between a 1 seat D house majority or a 1 seat R house majority is based on an over-optimistic assessment of voters' civics knowledge.

Instead, lots of those voters just think in terms of who is President. If a Democrat is President, they blame Democrats for stuff, regardless of the composition of the legislative branch. And if a Republican is President, they blame Republicans for stuff, regardless of the composition of the legislative branch.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What would y'all say the chances in each of the last three races are?  Something like this?

PA- 90% McCormick
NV- 60% Brown
AZ- 75% Gallego

[Progressive Pessimist]

AZ Sen has me a little nervous. Pima just dropped 40K and Gallego only won them by 1%.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1854312276976689351

Has me nervous as well.

Need to figure out what types of ballots Pima was reporting. If it's still ED that drop could be fine for Gallego.

But no one seems to actually know any specifics.

I think Gallego will be fine.

Trump will need to win Arizona by 7-8 to pull Lake across the finish line, and I can’t see that happening, and I struggle to see him get past 5-6 at best.

That being said a Lake win will catapult her to near the top of Vance’s Veepstakes in 2028.

Thanks for making this election even worse now.

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

What would y'all say the chances in each of the last three races are?  Something like this?

PA- 90% McCormick
NV- 60% Brown
AZ- 75% Gallego

80% McCormick
60% Rosen
60% Gallego

[Tekken_Guy]

Around this time in the counting process in AZ in 2022 (65%), Hamadeh was in the lead, and he of course lost his race.

I’m pretty confident the final margin will settle around Gallego+3 for Senate and Trump+5 for President.

[Minnesota Mike]

NEW Washoe election results just dropped - including 15k additional mail ballots

Jacky Rosen picks up 2,110 additional votes on Brown, now leads him by 7,289 in Washoe.

Brown now leads by 1,757 votes statewide (.2%)

https://x.com/BenMargiott/status/1854323460941467792

[Spectator]

MGP looks like a likely winner in WA-03. She's solidly outpacing her 2022 performances in every county. Lewis County is nearly all in and she's very impressively outperforming both her own 2022 benchmark and Biden's 33% loss there. She's only down a little over 22 points there as it stands.

Very impressive overperformance.

[DaleCooper]

Unless the the remaining votes are not ticket-splitting for some reason, then Gallego will likely win. There doesn't seem to be a clear lean to it so unless Trump is winning by close to 10 points, I don't see how Gallego loses.

I think Rosen will win too, just if it's actually true that there were over 100k ballots left coming out of Clark and Washoe compared to something like 15k for the rest.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

NEW Washoe election results just dropped - including 15k additional mail ballots

Jacky Rosen picks up 2,110 additional votes on Brown, now leads him by 7,289 in Washoe.

Brown now leads by 1,757 votes statewide (.2%)

https://x.com/BenMargiott/status/1854323460941467792

Unless this is anomalous, Rosen will win.

[Minnesota Mike]

Unless the the remaining votes are not ticket-splitting for some reason, then Gallego will likely win. There doesn't seem to be a clear lean to it so unless Trump is winning by close to 10 points, I don't see how Gallego loses.

I think Rosen will win too, just if it's actually true that there were over 100k ballots left coming out of Clark and Washoe compared to something like 15k for the rest.

I think those numbers are probably low. Anything dropped in a mailbox yesterday or before that arrives by Friday has to be added.

[Atlas Force]

MGP looks like a likely winner in WA-03. She's solidly outpacing her 2022 performances in every county. Lewis County is nearly all in and she's very impressively outperforming both her own 2022 benchmark and Biden's 33% loss there. She's only down a little over 22 points there as it stands.

Very impressive overperformance.

She will be one of the leaders and teachers of the Democratic Party for the next four years

[Accordion Hazard]

Brown leads by R+2188 votes

Nye is up to 67% and generating R+7713 margin, which means it'll probably only squeeze out another R+3857 and would give Brown a lead of R+6045 votes.

By comparison Clark County reportedly has like 138020 votes and Washoe another 54404 going by their respective % in.

Seems kind of over, even if remaining Clark and Washoe ballots are kinda mid for Rosen.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the the remaining votes are not ticket-splitting for some reason, then Gallego will likely win. There doesn't seem to be a clear lean to it so unless Trump is winning by close to 10 points, I don't see how Gallego loses.

I think Rosen will win too, just if it's actually true that there were over 100k ballots left coming out of Clark and Washoe compared to something like 15k for the rest.

I think 7-8 is more where Trump needs to be and I feel it’s likely he ends up around the 5 he’s currently at. In 2022 most races stagnated around their final margin at this point in the count.

[CentristRepublican]

Gallego is holding up quite well in Santa Cruz County (tiny in area and population, overwhelmingly Hispanic). Otoh, Yuma County is a bloodbath for Dems up and down (it was narrowly for Trump in 2016 and has only moved further right since).

What would y'all say the chances in each of the last three races are?  Something like this?

PA- 90% McCormick
NV- 60% Brown
AZ- 75% Gallego

I'd honestly give Gallego more like 80-85%. And McCormick maybe slightly less, like 80%.