Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[wbrocks67]

A few more ballots from Philly. McCormick drops to +26.8k. These were e-day ballots, there's a few more left. Then at least 9K more mail and probably at least 10-15k more provisionals.

[GALeftist]

I haven't read this thread so don't know if this has been discussed, but Kristen McDonald Rivet is very clearly going to have a significant role to play in the post-2024 Democratic Party - looking at a substantial overperformance there, possibly more than Marcy Kaptur.

And Jared Golden. Listen I hate that guy but after this election I'll take him over Susan Collins

[Neocon Dem]

Casey might just be able to pull this off.

[LimoLiberal]

A few more ballots from Philly. McCormick drops to +26.8k. These were e-day ballots, there's a few more left. Then at least 9K more mail and probably at least 10-15k more provisionals.

Are these #s right? If so, this is a real race for sure.

Also -- Fetterman netting 21K in the provisionals is also bullish.

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1854289932950573434

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Casey might just be able to pull this off.

I think he will. The math is very much there for him.

[DaleCooper]

If those numbers are true that there are 40k+ in Washoe and 50k+ in Clark (plus ones arriving this week) while less than 15k in Nye and presumably everywhere else I would guess that Rosen probably does win. Casey is almost certainly gone and will be the only Dem loser of a winnable Senate race, shockingly. He deserved to lose way more than any of the others, if you ask me.

If that happens, this election was just a repeat of 2018:

*Dems only lose red state seats in the Senate
*Dems hold all the swing states except for one race where the three-term incumbent gets caught asleep at the wheel & faces a less Trumpian/'modern' GOPer but far more competent challenger, resulting in him losing by the skin of his teeth (FL, PA)

and all of this in an environment where the GOP presidential candidate won the PV for the first time in 20 years.

Yet another major underperformance by a seemingly dysfunctional Republican Party. The House results also underscore this.

Yeah, and some may understandably read this as cope, but it's pretty clear to me that there are big cracks in the Republican coalition even in a presidential popular vote win, not unlike what we saw with their House popular vote win in 2022. I'm not under any illusion that there's an easy path forward in the Senate for Dems, but it looks like the Republican Party has pretty severe systemic issues that will prevent them from being as big as they can be. And I think they will be shocked by how bad they do when a real reason to vote against them comes up eventually, whether it's out of their control like a recession or COVID or a catastrophic domestic misstep like repealing Obamacare.

[dkxdjy]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1854292427172946271

Seems Rosen may still be favored?

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1854256053673771163

Also some provisionals/overseas left in PA, but Casey needs 27k so I wouldn't expect it to be enough

[henster]

Is that factoring Cambria that seems to be the biggest issue for him from what I've seen? Philly having more votes in the tank than expected should surprise no one though.

[MillennialModerate]

How could he pull it off if he is down 26 and the left over ballots are 26

[henster]

I think the issue is no one really knows for sure how many votes are really out there in PA.

[Spectator]

If those numbers are true that there are 40k+ in Washoe and 50k+ in Clark (plus ones arriving this week) while less than 15k in Nye and presumably everywhere else I would guess that Rosen probably does win. Casey is almost certainly gone and will be the only Dem loser of a winnable Senate race, shockingly. He deserved to lose way more than any of the others, if you ask me.

If that happens, this election was just a repeat of 2018:

*Dems only lose red state seats in the Senate
*Dems hold all the swing states except for one race where the three-term incumbent gets caught asleep at the wheel & faces a less Trumpian/'modern' GOPer but far more competent challenger, resulting in him losing by the skin of his teeth (FL, PA)

and all of this in an environment where the GOP presidential candidate won the PV for the first time in 20 years.

Yet another major underperformance by a seemingly dysfunctional Republican Party. The House results also underscore this.

Yeah, and some may understandably read this as cope, but it's pretty clear to me that there are big cracks in the Republican coalition even in a presidential popular vote win, not unlike what we saw with their House popular vote win in 2022. I'm not under any illusion that there's an easy path forward in the Senate for Dems, but it looks like the Republican Party has pretty severe systemic issues that will prevent them from being as big as they can be. And I think they will be shocked by how bad they do when a real reason to vote against them comes up eventually, whether it's out of their control like a recession or COVID or a catastrophic domestic misstep like repealing Obamacare.

The fact that Trump of all people is the electoral juggernaut for Republicans whereas downballot Republicans are floundering (including incumbents) is my read. Raises real skepticism on my part that the Trump cultural phenomenon is transferable to other Republicans.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

How could he pull it off if he is down 26 and the left over ballots are 26

There is likely more. NYT estimates a decent chunk left.

[Splash]

I haven't read this thread so don't know if this has been discussed, but Kristen McDonald Rivet is very clearly going to have a significant role to play in the post-2024 Democratic Party - looking at a substantial overperformance there, possibly more than Marcy Kaptur.

This. If you told me that Harris was only going to win Genesee County by four percentage points, I would have thought McDonald Rivet would be DOA. Also, seeing Paul Junge lose another election never gets old.

[Accordion Hazard]

Yeah, and some may understandably read this as cope, but it's pretty clear to me that there are big cracks in the Republican coalition even in a presidential popular vote win, not unlike what we saw with their House popular vote win in 2022. I'm not under any illusion that there's an easy path forward in the Senate for Dems, but it looks like the Republican Party has pretty severe systemic issues that will prevent them from being as big as they can be. And I think they will be shocked by how bad they do when a real reason to vote against them comes up eventually, whether it's out of their control like a recession or COVID or a catastrophic domestic misstep like repealing Obamacare.

While there is a lot of recriminations about the Democrats appealing to educated suburban liberals at the expense of urban minorities and rural whites, it has seemingly given them a very high floor in the House, whose control hinges on suburban districts and for whom urban and rural locales are self-gerrymandering votesinks.

In 2012 Democrats won the house popular vote by 1.1 points but barely scraped by with 201 seats. In 2022 Democrats lost the house popular vote by 2.7 points but won 213 seats. In 2024 they were leading in 214 seats last I checked.

If the Democrats gerrymandered in states they control as hard as the GOP does in states they control, the Democrats would probably have permanent house majority that could tank 2010 or 2014 style waves and serve as a counterbalance to the GOP's current Senate advantage.

[DaleCooper]

If those numbers are true that there are 40k+ in Washoe and 50k+ in Clark (plus ones arriving this week) while less than 15k in Nye and presumably everywhere else I would guess that Rosen probably does win. Casey is almost certainly gone and will be the only Dem loser of a winnable Senate race, shockingly. He deserved to lose way more than any of the others, if you ask me.

If that happens, this election was just a repeat of 2018:

*Dems only lose red state seats in the Senate
*Dems hold all the swing states except for one race where the three-term incumbent gets caught asleep at the wheel & faces a less Trumpian/'modern' GOPer but far more competent challenger, resulting in him losing by the skin of his teeth (FL, PA)

and all of this in an environment where the GOP presidential candidate won the PV for the first time in 20 years.

Yet another major underperformance by a seemingly dysfunctional Republican Party. The House results also underscore this.

Yeah, and some may understandably read this as cope, but it's pretty clear to me that there are big cracks in the Republican coalition even in a presidential popular vote win, not unlike what we saw with their House popular vote win in 2022. I'm not under any illusion that there's an easy path forward in the Senate for Dems, but it looks like the Republican Party has pretty severe systemic issues that will prevent them from being as big as they can be. And I think they will be shocked by how bad they do when a real reason to vote against them comes up eventually, whether it's out of their control like a recession or COVID or a catastrophic domestic misstep like repealing Obamacare.

The fact that Trump of all people is the electoral juggernaut for Republicans whereas downballot Republicans are floundering (including incumbents) is my read. Raises real skepticism on my part that the Trump cultural phenomenon is transferable to other Republicans.

It also raises the important question of, how much of this is Trump being a juggernaut vs. just genuine ticket splitting? Obviously he still polarizes things, but many millions of voters looked at their ballots and voted for Trump and Dems downballot, or at least refused to vote for other Republicans. It makes me wonder what it would've looked like if this had somehow been Haley against Harris or even just Rubio. Would they have carried more Republicans across the line, or would the decreased turnout without Trump on the ballot hurt them even more?

His supporters and of course the media will never allow for this question to be debated honestly, but we still don't know if this performance should be credited to Trump or if someone else would've done a lot better.

[Splash]

AP calls VA-07 for Vindman.

I was worried about this seat before election day since Vindman has always struck me as a poor candidate.

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

Yeah, and some may understandably read this as cope, but it's pretty clear to me that there are big cracks in the Republican coalition even in a presidential popular vote win, not unlike what we saw with their House popular vote win in 2022. I'm not under any illusion that there's an easy path forward in the Senate for Dems, but it looks like the Republican Party has pretty severe systemic issues that will prevent them from being as big as they can be. And I think they will be shocked by how bad they do when a real reason to vote against them comes up eventually, whether it's out of their control like a recession or COVID or a catastrophic domestic misstep like repealing Obamacare.

While there is a lot of recriminations about the Democrats appealing to educated suburban liberals at the expense of urban minorities and rural whites, it has seemingly given them a very high floor in the House, whose control hinges on suburban districts and for whom urban and rural locales are self-gerrymandering votesinks.

In 2012 Democrats won the house popular vote by 1.1 points but barely scraped by with 201 seats. In 2022 Democrats lost the house popular vote by 2.7 points but won 213 seats. In 2024 they were leading in 214 seats last I checked.

If the Democrats gerrymandered in states they control as hard as the GOP does in states they control, the Democrats would probably have permanent house majority that could tank 2010 or 2014 style waves and serve as a counterbalance to the GOP's current Senate advantage.

Which is why I am for the repeal of the CA redistricting commission. Bringing a knife to a gun fight.

[LimoLiberal]

By the way the Democrats might actually take the House.

Called House races:

206 R
186 D

Uncalled House races:

Safe D:
CA-16, CA-34, CA-12, CA-25, LA-06, CA-39, CA-26, WA-08, AZ-04, NV-03, NV-04, NV-01

Likely D:
OR-04, OR-06, VA-07, NY-04, NC-01, MD-06

Tilt D:
OH-09, ME-02, CA-21, CA-09, CA-49

Tossup:
CO-08, OR-05, WA-03, CA-47

Tilt R:
CA-41, AZ-01, CA-13, AK-AL, CA-45, AZ-06, CA-27

Lean R:
IA-01, CA-22

Likely R:
PA-07, PA-10

Safe R:
PA-08, NE-02, CO-03, AZ-02, AZ-08, CA-40, WA-22

That's 209 D seats Tilt D or better. 218 needed for the majority.

Gun to my head, Democrats win all the "tossups." That brings them to 213

From there, they have to win 5 more seats. Those "tilt R" seats are heavily dependent on the extent of the Arizona and California blueshifts, which both seem real...

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Susan Wild somehow shaved ~1,000 off her deficit from this morning, apparently.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

By the way the Democrats might actually take the House.

Called House races:

206 R
186 D

Uncalled House races:

Safe D:
CA-16, CA-34, CA-12, CA-25, LA-06, CA-39, CA-26, WA-08, AZ-04, NV-03, NV-04, NV-01

Likely D:
OR-04, OR-06, VA-07, NY-04, NC-01, MD-06

Tilt D:
OH-09, ME-02, CA-21, CA-09, CA-49

Tossup:
CO-08, OR-05, WA-03, CA-47

Tilt R:
CA-41, AZ-01, CA-13, AK-AL, CA-45, AZ-06, CA-27

Lean R:
IA-01, CA-22

Likely R:
PA-07, PA-10

Safe R:
PA-08, NE-02, CO-03, AZ-02, AZ-08, CA-40, WA-22

That's 209 D seats Tilt D or better. 218 needed for the majority.

Gun to my head, Democrats win all the "tossups." That brings them to 213

From there, they have to win 5 more seats. Those "tilt R" seats are heavily dependent on the extent of the Arizona and California blueshifts, which both seem real...

I predict we win the house.

[Storr]

Susan Wild somehow shaved ~1,000 off her deficit from this morning, apparently.

If I had to guess, what cut it was provisionals. Similar to how they've decreased Casey's deficit throughout the day.

[adma]

Re the talk of the Trumpward swing of the Hispanic electorate as well as that of NYC's outer boroughs,  one thing I was curious about was AOC, who only got around 2/3 of the vote in '22 as a sort of distant early warning of said swing--well, in the rematch btw/her and Tina Forte, she looks *so far* to have slightly exceeded her '22 share (but so has Forte)

[Splash]

Does anybody have a good read on CO-08? Caraveo is clinging to a small lead with 78% in.

[henster]

Best case scenario for Dems right now is 218-217 which is really just a majority on paper and not really a workable one especially against a Republican President & Senate. I'm hoping for a slim GOP majority they seem way more dysfunctional and its a better case for Dems that GOP had a trifecta and couldn't get anything done.

[soundchaser]

I disagree. Any kind of bulwark against Trump — preventing an ACA repeal bill from coming to the floor, chief among them — would be a welcome relief.