Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[prag_prog]

I am not sure why Ralston said couple of hours ago that Rosen has no chance when even he is probably aware of lot of Election Day mail drop-offs at Clark that were not reported yet.

[LimoLiberal]

Stelson will run in 2026, and win.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Hard to see Rosen losing if there are 55K mail ballots left in Clark.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

I am not sure why Ralston said couple of hours ago that Rosen has no chance when even he is probably aware of lot of Election Day mail drop-offs at Clark that were not reported yet.

Ralston is doing his usual doombait. Rosen will win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Rosen wins, and Casey could still pull off his win-I'd more than settle for that at this juncture. It's doable for Democrats to net three in 2026 if we are so fortunate.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Not that it matters, but Boebert lost Douglas County (not even Polis could win it!) and only won her new district by 10. If she didn't carpetbag she definitely would have gone down this year.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I am not sure why Ralston said couple of hours ago that Rosen has no chance when even he is probably aware of lot of Election Day mail drop-offs at Clark that were not reported yet.

Ralston is doing his usual doombait. Rosen will win.

Why are you still here? Shoo

[Tekken_Guy]

Not that it matters, but Boebert lost Douglas County (not even Polis could win it!) and only won her new district by 10. If she didn't carpetbag she definitely would have gone down this year.

That, and the fact that Hurd is only going to beat Frisch by a couple of points. Hurd is probably a goner in 2026 and there’s a chance Boebert is either ousted in a primary against a single opponent, loses a general, or gets a White House job.

[wbrocks67]

Some votes came in from somewhere. McCormick at +29.9k now - edit; looks like the last of the Centre VBM

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If Rosen wins, and Casey could still pull off his win-I'd more than settle for that at this juncture. It's doable for Democrats to net three in 2026 if we are so fortunate.

Unless they're lowballing the number of ballots left in Philly, I don't think Casey can win.

[Splash]

As of ~2Hrs ago: Allegheny has 19K votes to count, which are a mix of overseas, military, provisional, and election day ballots.  

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1854256053673771163

[prag_prog]

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1854279685930115569

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

Why hasn't NYT called Maine?

[Minnesota Mike]

Why hasn't NYT called Maine?

I would assume they are waiting to see if King slips below 50% because of RCV but yeah there is no good reason not to call it.

[Minnesota Mike]

This may have been covered as I have been off the board since yesterday but I am pretty sure the remaining Nye county ballots in NV are mail ballots. It seems they had some sort of problem counting them as at the end of last night none were included in their count. Brown will still win those mail ballots but they will be a lot closer than the in person ballots, probably about 2-1. Honestly at this point I would make Rosen the favorite.

[Minnesota Mike]

Washoe County officials say that as of this afternoon, there are about 43,000 outstanding ballots in Washoe County, with the 5 p.m. update today expected to include the 15,000 noted in this thread.

https://x.com/tabitha_mueller/status/1854290748390416844

Absentees in Washoe have leaned Democratic but not as much as in the past. Just a hunch but I would bet these late mail ballots are a little more Dem the earlier ones just because Democratic turnout seems really weak up to this point. Of course I could be wrong.

[prag_prog]

This may have been covered as I have been off the board since yesterday but I am pretty sure the remaining Nye county ballots in NV are mail ballots. It seems they had some sort of problem counting them as at the end of last night none were included in their count. Brown will still win those mail ballots but they will be a lot closer than the in person ballots, probably about 2-1. Honestly at this point I would make Rosen the favorite.

Yep...with close to 100K ballots remaining in Clark, Washoe, you'd probably expect Rosen to be the favorite

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1854292427172946271

[LimoLiberal]

FWIW, the fact that NV and AZ are Trump +5 (7 and 5 point swings right from 2020) while NM is Harris +6 (4 point swing right); AND that Harris tended to overperform in swing states makes me think Democrats will gain in the remaining ballots in each state, possible reversing 2020/2022 trends in AZ. This is relevant for AZ-01 and AZ-06. 

[DaleCooper]

If those numbers are true that there are 40k+ in Washoe and 50k+ in Clark (plus ones arriving this week) while less than 15k in Nye and presumably everywhere else I would guess that Rosen probably does win. Casey is almost certainly gone and will be the only Dem loser of a winnable Senate race, shockingly. He deserved to lose way more than any of the others, if you ask me.

I'm assuming since no one is agonizing over it, Gallego is likely to win. Correct me if I am wrong.

[prag_prog]

FWIW, the fact that NV and AZ are Trump +5 (7 and 5 point swings right from 2020) while NM is Harris +6 (4 point swing right); AND that Harris tended to overperform in swing states makes me think Democrats will gain in the remaining ballots in each state, possible reversing 2020/2022 trends in AZ. This is relevant for AZ-01 and AZ-06. 

NYT needle's estimate of AZ yesterday night was around Trump+4.2. Their estimates for other states too were mostly accurate (+/- 1 pt)...so that's probably a decent estimate to use.

[prag_prog]

If Rosen can hold on, then atleast Senate wise, it was an average night for Dems..pre-election day, I'd have said 53-47 was probably the modal outcome. They were DOA in WV, MT anyways...Ohio was always gonna be a longshot when Trump is on ballot...considering there were 5 Senate races in competitive states - MI, WI, PA,AZ, NV, you'd have expected atleast 1 to flip if things went decently for Trump. Considering things went amazing for Trump, you should be happy that Dems atleast managed to reduce the losses in these competitive races

[MT Treasurer]

If those numbers are true that there are 40k+ in Washoe and 50k+ in Clark (plus ones arriving this week) while less than 15k in Nye and presumably everywhere else I would guess that Rosen probably does win. Casey is almost certainly gone and will be the only Dem loser of a winnable Senate race, shockingly. He deserved to lose way more than any of the others, if you ask me.

If that happens, this election was just a repeat of 2018:

*Dems only lose red state seats in the Senate
*Dems hold all the swing states except for one race where the three-term incumbent gets caught asleep at the wheel & faces a less Trumpian/'modern' GOPer but far more competent challenger, resulting in him losing by the skin of his teeth (FL, PA)

and all of this in an environment where the GOP presidential candidate won the PV for the first time in 20 years.

Yet another major underperformance by a seemingly dysfunctional Republican Party. The House results also underscore this.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1854296713080787313

I'm of the opinion Casey pulls it off too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yes, it looks like 53R is going to be the number (Rosen wins, Casey loses), although of course it's not completely settled yet.

[Pollster]

I haven't read this thread so don't know if this has been discussed, but Kristen McDonald Rivet is very clearly going to have a significant role to play in the post-2024 Democratic Party - looking at a substantial overperformance there, possibly more than Marcy Kaptur.