Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Spectator]

Are there mail ballots in Clark County or was that all a BS feel-good narrative too?

[Queen Isuelt]

Why hasn’t Michigan been called for Slotkin? Any word on how many Ballots are left?

[CentristRepublican]

some people were so confident throughout this cycle as if Casey was an electoral juggernaut and now he is barely doing like 1 pt better than Kamala lol. Atleast I am glad, Tammy survived.

Feels like they could call both Baldwin and Slotkin at this point

Per CNN its Slotkin+0.3 with 97% in. Too close rn?

[wbrocks67]

A few Centre ballots come in. McCormick down to +31K.

[Paleobrazilian]

Ralston thinks Rosen will lose her seat:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1854245718200070634

[wbrocks67]

Stelson got so close in PA-10. damn. Hope she runs again in 2026.

[MT Treasurer]

He said "probably", big difference. To me, NV still seems super uncertain, and I’m not at all comfortable picking a favorite there when we don’t know how R absentee/mail in Clark will be. Brown just expanded his statewide lead to half a point, but only because Nye is now 40% in, which obviously tells us nothing about Clark, where the race will be decided.

I think Casey is on track for a Bill Nelson-style loss.

[henster]

Damn. Looking pretty likely 46 seats for Dems. Basically no chance of a majority for the next 4 years at least. Can't really fault Schumer though he held pretty consistently against the folks pushing to waste money in FL/TX did everything he could to defend every seat he had.

[wbrocks67]

Damn. Looking pretty likely 46 seats for Dems. Basically no chance of a majority for the next 4 years at least. Can't really fault Schumer though he held pretty consistently against the folks pushing to waste money in FL/TX did everything he could to defend every seat he had.

Which is why I got so annoyed with everyone who was upset with him, screaming on Twitter about how he was incompetent when it's clear he was right to do what he was doing. People like to act way too much like they're smarter than the people who are actually involved in decision making.

[henster]

Damn. Looking pretty likely 46 seats for Dems. Basically no chance of a majority for the next 4 years at least. Can't really fault Schumer though he held pretty consistently against the folks pushing to waste money in FL/TX did everything he could to defend every seat he had.

Which is why I got so annoyed with everyone who was upset with him, screaming on Twitter about how he was incompetent when it's clear he was right to do what he was doing. People like to act way too much like they're smarter than the people who are actually involved in decision making.

And looking at Maryland the race was closer there than Montana so the complaints about him spending in MD were dumb too.

[Paleobrazilian]

Damn. Looking pretty likely 46 seats for Dems. Basically no chance of a majority for the next 4 years at least. Can't really fault Schumer though he held pretty consistently against the folks pushing to waste money in FL/TX did everything he could to defend every seat he had.

It could have been worse, if Rs had a somewhat serious candidate in AZ instead of Lake, and if they had spent just a bit more in WI and MI, this would have been a 57R seats Senate. The map is not too promising for Ds in 2026 but they could flip at least ME and NC.

[Comrade Luanne Platter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1854249113254289821

Some good news for Rosen I'd assume, since it leaves a path open.

[somco]

NYT calls Michigan for Slotkin.

[MillennialModerate]

A few Centre ballots come in. McCormick down to +31K.

Id rather not know that. Its going to be Bill Nelson / Gillum close... which sucks worse.

[wbrocks67]

Clark really needs to streamline - the fact that no one knows how many outstanding ballots they have is wild

[wbrocks67]

State of play in PA:

43K in Cambria?
Nearly 19k provisionals/overseas/military/e-day votes in Allegheny
Nearly 9k VBM in Philly + various e-day votes + unknown amount of provisionals (probably 10-13k)
8k in Montco

Will it be enough? If not for Cambria, probably would be, but with those e-day votes not sure...

[MT Treasurer]

To put things into perspective: Even if Republicans win both NV & PA (big if, since no one knows how those will turn out), Senate Democrats will still be punching way above weight by holding most swing state Senate seats:

- 1D, 1R from WI
- 1D, 1R from PA
- 1D, 1R from NV
- 2R from NC
- 2D from GA
- 2D from AZ
- 2D from MI
(and most of those by very narrow margins in races where Ds got extremely lucky)

In other words, 9 swing state Ds and just 5 swing state Rs. They’re still overperforming geography/partisanship big time in the chamber (and to a frankly shocking extent if they hold NV/PA), but they have collapsed in red states and there are just more of those than blue states.

If NV/PA fall, this is another reason why it will be so hard for the party to win back the Senate this decade — they’re already in control of most swing state Senate seats, and those deep red seats are unlikely to come back even on a good night for Ds. Also, for every future D Senator from AK you run the risk of losing one of your swing state Senators. OTOH, the Senate probably would have been lost for a generation if Biden had been the nominee.

[Talleyrand]

If there are really 43K out in Cambria, it won't be especially close lol.

[President Johnson]

Has Casey a shot to hang on?

[somco]

State of play in PA:

43K in Cambria?
Nearly 19k provisionals/overseas/military/e-day votes in Allegheny
Nearly 9k VBM in Philly + various e-day votes + unknown amount of provisionals (probably 10-13k)
8k in Montco

Will it be enough? If not for Cambria, probably would be, but with those e-day votes not sure...

I think it mostly hinges on who's correct here
https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1854266484186620182

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1854271668044403058?s=46
Rosen is not out of it yet.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah, I think Rosen is gonna win -- just because I find it unlikely NV stays at Trump +4.9.

[Frodo]

The Democratic border of Northern Virginia has apparently expanded past Loudoun and Prince William counties into Stafford County just north of Fredericksburg, judging by election results I am seeing for Kamala Harris and Sen. Tim Kaine who both won that county. It seems to be the new frontier, with Spotsylvania and Caroline counties being only narrowly won by Republicans, and therefore being potential pickups for Democrats in the future.  

[henster]

Lots of Republicans upset over Bob Casey not conceding apparently. So ironic how they want quick and orderly concessions from Dems but they can call shenanigans whenever things don't go their way. IMO I wish Dems were more open about playing their games and throwing out the norms.

[wbrocks67]

PA could come down to provisionals - even York has 5k alone

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1854273352262955200