Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Virginiá]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

I think Dems need to do a bit better than that in the senate to feel ok about 2026. Agree that a huge wave in the house isn’t super important as long as they take the majority.

It's not hard to see 2026 come with a decent Democratic performance across the country but no change in Senate seats, imo. Tillis+0.2 (maintaining its Titanium Lean R status at the federal level), Collins+5, and maybe IA/TX somewhat close but just not enough. I'd like to see who goes against Collins and what her approvals look like in 26, but she might hold on to enough goodwill to keep her seat. On its face it does look like Democrats should be able to get a seat here, and maybe they will, but the two most plausible states have been doing a Lucy and the Football bit for quite a while now.

[UncleSam]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

I think Dems need to do a bit better than that in the senate to feel ok about 2026. Agree that a huge wave in the house isn’t super important as long as they take the majority.

It's not hard to see 2026 come with a decent Democratic performance across the country but no change in Senate seats, imo. Tillis+0.2 (maintaining its Titanium Lean R status at the federal level), Collins+5, and maybe IA/TX somewhat close but just not enough. I'd like to see who goes against Collins and what her approvals look like in 26, but she might hold on to enough goodwill to keep her seat. On its face it does look like Democrats should be able to get a seat here, and maybe they will, but the two most plausible states have been doing a Lucy and the Football bit for quite a while now.

I dunno, ME seems like the sort of seat that Dems should be picking up in any favorable midterm environment, even a weaker win. I’ve no doubt Collins would overperform the fundamentals though.

NC probably will be purely a function of the environment. It actually voted right around even with the NPV in 2024, after being R+5 in 2016 and R+5.5 in 2020. Of course that’s more a function of the NPV swinging while NC stubbornly stays roughly consistently tilt R, which is of course your point.

I can see the argument that D+1 is acceptable in the senate as long as Dems take the house. I think D+0 would constitute a ‘win’ for Rs unless Ds win like 40+ in the house.

[Spectator]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

I think Dems need to do a bit better than that in the senate to feel ok about 2026. Agree that a huge wave in the house isn’t super important as long as they take the majority.

It's not hard to see 2026 come with a decent Democratic performance across the country but no change in Senate seats, imo. Tillis+0.2 (maintaining its Titanium Lean R status at the federal level), Collins+5, and maybe IA/TX somewhat close but just not enough. I'd like to see who goes against Collins and what her approvals look like in 26, but she might hold on to enough goodwill to keep her seat. On its face it does look like Democrats should be able to get a seat here, and maybe they will, but the two most plausible states have been doing a Lucy and the Football bit for quite a while now.

I dunno, ME seems like the sort of seat that Dems should be picking up in any favorable midterm environment, even a weaker win. I’ve no doubt Collins would overperform the fundamentals though.

NC probably will be purely a function of the environment. It actually voted right around even with the NPV in 2024, after being R+5 in 2016 and R+5.5 in 2020. Of course that’s more a function of the NPV swinging while NC stubbornly stays roughly consistently tilt R, which is of course your point.

I can see the argument that D+1 is acceptable in the senate as long as Dems take the house. I think D+0 would constitute a ‘win’ for Rs unless Ds win like 40+ in the house.

Anything less than D+2 is a significant blow of the Dems hoping to regain a trifecta in 2028. D+1 means they have to run the table in 2028 in the swing states just to get to 50. D+3 or higher is something I'd call a "good" night for Dems in 2026. Means they held onto GA and MI, probably gained NC and ME and one of KS/AK/OH/IA/TX/MT. In a 2018 repeat, they should be able to win at least one of the latter seats with the right candidate and campaign.

[RBH]

2022 vs 2024 swings, Michigan House

MI-01: Bergman won 60/37 in 2022 and 59/38 in 2024. Most of the counties swung Dem. Marquette and 4 counties (Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac) on Lake Huron swung R. 7 Counties had a larger swing to the Working Class candidate than the Ds or Rs. The portion of Wexford in MI01 swung Libertarian more than any other party. D/R h2h swing, the 4 Lake Huron counties plus Ogemaw swung R, 5 UP counties swung R (Gogebic, Marquette, Menominee, Alger, Luce). The rest swung D.

MI-02: Moolenaar won 64/34 in 2022 and 65/32 in 2022. All Counties swung R.

MI-03: Scholten won 55/42 in 2022 and 54/44 in 2024. All Counties swung R.

MI-04: Huizenga won 54/42 in 2022 and 55/43 in 2024. Berrien/Ottawa swung D. Allegan/Van Buren/Kalamazoo/Van Buren swung US Taxpayers. Those 4 counties swung R in the D/R h2h

MI-05: Walberg won 62/35 in 2022 and 66/33 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-06: Dingell won 66/34 in 2022 and 62/35 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-07: Slotkin won 52/46 in 2022 and Barrett won 50/47 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-08: Kildee won 53/43 in 2022 and Rivet won 51/45 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-09: McClain won 64/33 in 2022 and 67/29.5 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-10: James won 48.8/48.3 in 2022 and 51/45 in 2024. Both counties swung R.

MI-12: Tlaib won 71/26 in 2022 and 70/25 in 2024. Oakland swung R (going from 81/18 Tlaib to 78/19 Tlaib). Wayne went from 69/28 Tlaib to 68/27 Tlaib

So pretty much all R swings aside from MI-01/04

It wouldn't shock me if the Rs picked up Rivet's State Senate seat in a special election. It was interesting that she lost Bay (49/47) to Junge and still won fairly comfortably.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

tbf most Democrats do think the severe economic downturn and inflation will happen as a result of the tariffs, and I'm inclined to agree (provided the tariffs actually get passed, which is a big if)

I think most regular people are expecting Trump's economy to be strong... so if he disappoints I think there will be pretty widespread disatisfaction.

That's the risk of being so boisterous. It sets lofty expectations.

[Tekken_Guy]

2022 vs 2024 swings, Michigan House

MI-01: Bergman won 60/37 in 2022 and 59/38 in 2024. Most of the counties swung Dem. Marquette and 4 counties (Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac) on Lake Huron swung R. 7 Counties had a larger swing to the Working Class candidate than the Ds or Rs. The portion of Wexford in MI01 swung Libertarian more than any other party. D/R h2h swing, the 4 Lake Huron counties plus Ogemaw swung R, 5 UP counties swung R (Gogebic, Marquette, Menominee, Alger, Luce). The rest swung D.

MI-02: Moolenaar won 64/34 in 2022 and 65/32 in 2022. All Counties swung R.

MI-03: Scholten won 55/42 in 2022 and 54/44 in 2024. All Counties swung R.

MI-04: Huizenga won 54/42 in 2022 and 55/43 in 2024. Berrien/Ottawa swung D. Allegan/Van Buren/Kalamazoo/Van Buren swung US Taxpayers. Those 4 counties swung R in the D/R h2h

MI-05: Walberg won 62/35 in 2022 and 66/33 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-06: Dingell won 66/34 in 2022 and 62/35 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-07: Slotkin won 52/46 in 2022 and Barrett won 50/47 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-08: Kildee won 53/43 in 2022 and Rivet won 51/45 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-09: McClain won 64/33 in 2022 and 67/29.5 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-10: James won 48.8/48.3 in 2022 and 51/45 in 2024. Both counties swung R.

MI-12: Tlaib won 71/26 in 2022 and 70/25 in 2024. Oakland swung R (going from 81/18 Tlaib to 78/19 Tlaib). Wayne went from 69/28 Tlaib to 68/27 Tlaib

So pretty much all R swings aside from MI-01/04

It wouldn't shock me if the Rs picked up Rivet's State Senate seat in a special election. It was interesting that she lost Bay (49/47) to Junge and still won fairly comfortably.

I don’t see Rivet’s senate seat flipping. Turnout dynamics favor Democrats here, especially with Trump in office. Losing this seat would be a true disaster for R’s.

[Spectator]

2022 vs 2024 swings, Michigan House

MI-01: Bergman won 60/37 in 2022 and 59/38 in 2024. Most of the counties swung Dem. Marquette and 4 counties (Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac) on Lake Huron swung R. 7 Counties had a larger swing to the Working Class candidate than the Ds or Rs. The portion of Wexford in MI01 swung Libertarian more than any other party. D/R h2h swing, the 4 Lake Huron counties plus Ogemaw swung R, 5 UP counties swung R (Gogebic, Marquette, Menominee, Alger, Luce). The rest swung D.

MI-02: Moolenaar won 64/34 in 2022 and 65/32 in 2022. All Counties swung R.

MI-03: Scholten won 55/42 in 2022 and 54/44 in 2024. All Counties swung R.

MI-04: Huizenga won 54/42 in 2022 and 55/43 in 2024. Berrien/Ottawa swung D. Allegan/Van Buren/Kalamazoo/Van Buren swung US Taxpayers. Those 4 counties swung R in the D/R h2h

MI-05: Walberg won 62/35 in 2022 and 66/33 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-06: Dingell won 66/34 in 2022 and 62/35 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-07: Slotkin won 52/46 in 2022 and Barrett won 50/47 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-08: Kildee won 53/43 in 2022 and Rivet won 51/45 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-09: McClain won 64/33 in 2022 and 67/29.5 in 2024. All counties swung R.

MI-10: James won 48.8/48.3 in 2022 and 51/45 in 2024. Both counties swung R.

MI-12: Tlaib won 71/26 in 2022 and 70/25 in 2024. Oakland swung R (going from 81/18 Tlaib to 78/19 Tlaib). Wayne went from 69/28 Tlaib to 68/27 Tlaib

So pretty much all R swings aside from MI-01/04

It wouldn't shock me if the Rs picked up Rivet's State Senate seat in a special election. It was interesting that she lost Bay (49/47) to Junge and still won fairly comfortably.

I don’t see Rivet’s senate seat flipping. Turnout dynamics favor Democrats here, especially with Trump in office. Losing this seat would be a true disaster for R’s.

Her senate district is about the same partisanship as MI-08, so it’ll be a good barometer of the upper midwest.

[RBH]

the current Rivet SD is more D friendly than the 2010s version (Bay/Lapeer/Tuscola) or the 2000s version (Bay/Arenac/Huron/Sanilac/Tuscola) purely because of Saginaw

the 2022 result was

Bay (43k votes): Rivet by 8 votes
Midland (30k votes): Glenn 53/47
Saginaw (43k votes): Rivet 61/39
overall (108k votes): Rivet 53/47

so a stronger R showing in Bay could tip it in their favor

[UncleSam]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

I think Dems need to do a bit better than that in the senate to feel ok about 2026. Agree that a huge wave in the house isn’t super important as long as they take the majority.

It's not hard to see 2026 come with a decent Democratic performance across the country but no change in Senate seats, imo. Tillis+0.2 (maintaining its Titanium Lean R status at the federal level), Collins+5, and maybe IA/TX somewhat close but just not enough. I'd like to see who goes against Collins and what her approvals look like in 26, but she might hold on to enough goodwill to keep her seat. On its face it does look like Democrats should be able to get a seat here, and maybe they will, but the two most plausible states have been doing a Lucy and the Football bit for quite a while now.

I dunno, ME seems like the sort of seat that Dems should be picking up in any favorable midterm environment, even a weaker win. I’ve no doubt Collins would overperform the fundamentals though.

NC probably will be purely a function of the environment. It actually voted right around even with the NPV in 2024, after being R+5 in 2016 and R+5.5 in 2020. Of course that’s more a function of the NPV swinging while NC stubbornly stays roughly consistently tilt R, which is of course your point.

I can see the argument that D+1 is acceptable in the senate as long as Dems take the house. I think D+0 would constitute a ‘win’ for Rs unless Ds win like 40+ in the house.

Anything less than D+2 is a significant blow of the Dems hoping to regain a trifecta in 2028. D+1 means they have to run the table in 2028 in the swing states just to get to 50. D+3 or higher is something I'd call a "good" night for Dems in 2026. Means they held onto GA and MI, probably gained NC and ME and one of KS/AK/OH/IA/TX/MT. In a 2018 repeat, they should be able to win at least one of the latter seats with the right candidate and campaign.

Disagree, D+2 is still a "good" night. It means Dems are holding all of the swing states + picking up ME and NC, which are the two competitive R-held seats up. I don't think Dems have to pick up a red state senate seat to be able to call it a good night, especially if they're picking up the house.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Does anyone know when we get more updates from CA-13 and where they'd be coming from?

[RBH]

the 2018 vs 2024 swings for TXSEN

Overall
2018: Cruz 50.9%, Beto 48.3%, Libertarian 0.8%
2024: Cruz 53.05%, Allred 44.6%, Libertarian 2.4%

The Libertarian actually improved more than Cruz or Allred in a lot of Texas Counties.

Allred improved on Beto on 3 exurban Dallas counties (Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman) where Harris also improved on Biden. As you'd expect, Cruz improved on his 2018 showing in the valley and around El Paso.

If you compare just D/R totals, Cruz improved from losing Harris 58/42 h2h to losing it 56/44. He improved from a 67/33 loss in Dallas to just 65/35. Allred ran ahead of Beto in Collin and just barely behind him in Denton/Tarrant. Allred improved on Beto slightly in several counties between Abilene and I-35. Some of it was as small as losing Taylor County by a 73.2-26.8 margin instead of 74-26.

Allred ran slightly ahead of Beto in Brazoria and Montgomery.

Medina County, Allred improved on Beto, going from a 71/29 loss to a 69/31 loss. But to the west, southwest, or south, Cruz improved on his 2018 showing in Uvalde (+7%), Zavala (+17%), and Frio (+11%) counties.

In Starr County, the h2h went from Beto 77/23 to Cruz 51/49.

I might look into one of the State Supreme Court races to see how the swing was from 2018 to 2024 in races where the Rs went from 53-54% in 2018 to 57-58% in 2024

or the Railroad Commissioner where the Green Party pulled in double digit totals in the valley with a candidate named Espinoza

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1863423515111604693
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1863423954087501976

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1863423515111604693
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1863423954087501976

Ehhhh... the past few midterm elections have demonstrated pretty decisively that congressional overperformance usually just = downballot lag with presidential trends. 

[wbrocks67]

Hm I didn't realize Kiggans only won by 3.8% in VA-02? That's barely better than her 3.4% win in 2022.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hm I didn't realize Kiggans only won by 3.8% in VA-02? That's barely better than her 3.4% win in 2022.

Kiggans is overrated. She votes like she's in a ruby red district. Her opponent was lousy and raised poor money. She could have lost to a stronger candidate

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Casey officially lost by 15,142.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The polls really goofed on Casey numbers that had him winning by 9

[Virginiá]

Ehhhh... the past few midterm elections have demonstrated pretty decisively that congressional overperformance usually just = downballot lag with presidential trends. 

Yeah, and I would expect some of this to stick for 2028 (unless Trump totally bombs the next 4 years), but at the same time, sometimes candidates over-perform with certain demographics and then things snap back. I don't know what the case is here, but I do know if all presidential results stuck, elections would have looked a lot different. Republicans didn't keep their Latino support from 2004. Likewise, Democrats didn't end up keeping their >70% / 65% margins with Asians/Latinos from 2012-2016, either.

Only way to know for sure is to see how the next presidential election plays out. And even then, you can't rule out Democrats course-correcting and rebounding in the 2030s.

[หมูเด้ง]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

tbf most Democrats do think the severe economic downturn and inflation will happen as a result of the tariffs, and I'm inclined to agree (provided the tariffs actually get passed, which is a big if)

I think most regular people are expecting Trump's economy to be strong... so if he disappoints I think there will be pretty widespread disatisfaction.

There is a universe where Republicans remain popular if the economy stays on a path of perpetual growth. There's isn't one where they remain popular if it doesn't.

[ottermax]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

tbf most Democrats do think the severe economic downturn and inflation will happen as a result of the tariffs, and I'm inclined to agree (provided the tariffs actually get passed, which is a big if)

I think most regular people are expecting Trump's economy to be strong... so if he disappoints I think there will be pretty widespread disatisfaction.

There is a universe where Republicans remain popular if the economy stays on a path of perpetual growth. There's isn't one where they remain popular if it doesn't.

I do think Democrats still have some advantage here - in 2018 the economy was doing well, and the Democrats laser focused on healthcare and protecting the ACA which wasn't as effective as they might have hoped for, but it did work to some extent. If Democrats are smart they will attack Republicans for cutting taxes for the rich and finding stories to pummel them with on corporate greed.... but knowing the current shape of the party I think the focus will be more on fluff that voters will not care about, and if the economy is doing well we will be in for a very small House majority for Democrats and potential losses in the Senate.

[RBH]

I have, ahem, some familiarity with the district, even though I don't currently live there. You get the sense that Bay and Saginaw are moving right, and Midland is moving left. In a 2025 special election, where Ds are now overperforming special elections and under a Trump presidency, it would not surprise me to see the Dem candidate win Midland outright.

Rivet is from Bay County, so she probably had some sort of local effect propping her up there. I expect Bay to vote for the Republican candidate in the special, though I guess you never know (Bay did vote for Whitmer in 2022, which shows there's still some interest in this area of the state in non-presidential democrats).

I think Dems are favored in a special here, but it's not impossible for Reps to have a pickup.

Someone with the time could probably look at the Bay results and see if Rivet carried the part of Bay that's in her SD while losing the rest of the county by enough to lose the county

The Bay City Wikipedia entry really is something for having an entire "notable events" section that is basically about local fires and freighters damaging bridges and the time that a 93 year old man died after the power company limited his power without telling him as he was about to pay his bill. Really does give me the impression of "Johnstown PA in Slapshot" for Rust Belt Grit in Bay City

The first non-Kildee election in this district since the 1970s being a solid D win would be a tough one for Rs if not for all the other things they did win in Michigan this year

[หมูเด้ง]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1861968856224346533

That's why their legislative agenda has to do with keeping what they had last time. We basically pick up where left off the day the signed their tax cuts into law. That's where this mulligan on Trump's term start, he still has his power play, but he is out of legislative capital, though his executing capital has been replenished inasmuch as it was depleted at the end of his first year.

[RBH]

the margin in the house is close enough for R incumbents to campaign in 2026 as if they're not controlling all 3 branches of the government

then again they do that in states where they have solid majorities

[wbrocks67]

CA-13 counted a few more cures from San Joaquin and Gray netted 4 votes lol he's now up 231 districtwide

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1863673777248243889