Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

California could be gerrymandered to hell but some folks still have principles. Maybe Lawler should ask his party why they've basically folded up and died in one of the most important states in the country.

[Nyvin]

Okay, since the commissions in CA, NJ, and NY are sooooo terrible according to Republicans then let's just get rid of them all and have those states have the same redistricting regulations as North Carolina.

They never seem to complain about redistricting in North Carolina so they must think that's a fair way to do it?

I guess we'll go by their rules.

[UncleSam]

Okay, since the commissions in CA, NJ, and NY are sooooo terrible according to Republicans then let's just get rid of them all and have those states have the same redistricting regulations as North Carolina.

They never seem to complain about redistricting in North Carolina so they must think that's a fair way to do it?

I guess we'll go by their rules.

The commissions are awful but they’re more fair than the abomination in NC.

Nothing will truly be fair until we pass a national bill that aligns redistricting in all states and turns it over to computers that minimize county splits and maximize compactness.

[RBH]

Sifting through wreckage to look at swings in Texas CDs

TX02: Crenshaw went from winning 65.9-34.1 to winning 65.7-34.3. Crenshaw dropped from 62.25 to 61.6 in Harris and from 70.25 to 70.22 in Montgomery

TX03: Self went from winning 60.55-36.9-2.5 to winning 62.5-37.5. His H2H % improved from 60.3 to 60.6 in Collin and dropped from 79.3 to 78.3 in Hunt.

TX04: Fallon went from winning 67-31-2 to winning 68-32. H2H, the entire district swung D aside from a portion of Red River County and Collin swung from 52.5/47.5 to 53.5/46.5

TX05: Gooden went from winning 64-34-2 to winning 64-36. The entire district swung D aside from part of Upshur County

TX06: Ellzey was unopposed in 2022. This time around the Tarrant/Dallas votesink voted D and the rest of the district voted R. The D nominee got nearly half of his votes out of Tarrant/Dallas.

TX07: Fletcher won 64/36 last time and won 61/39 this time. Fort Bend swung from 62/38 to 58/42. Harris from 65/35 to 63/37.

TX08: Luttrell won 68/31/1 last time and 68/32 this time. Montgomery/Polk/San Jacinto swung D. Harris/Walker swung R. Luttrell won his portion of Harris 50.6-49.4 after losing it 50/48 last time.

TX10: McCaul won 63.3/34.3/2.4 last time and 63.6/34/2.4 this time. 7 Counties swung D. Bastrop/Travis/Williamson/Brazos swung R. Burleson/Grimes swung the most towards the Libertarian.

TX12: Granger won 64.3/35.7 and Goldman won 63.45-36.55. Both Tarrant and Parker Counties moved slightly D

TX14: Weber won 70/30 last time and 69/31 this time. All 4 counties swung D.

TX15: De La Cruz won 53/45/2 last time and 57/43 this time. The 4 northernmost counties moved D. The 3 valley counties went way more R.

TX17: Sessions won 66.5/33.5 last time and 66.35/33.65 this time. The entire district swung D except for Trinity/Williamson/Travis.

TX21: Roy won 63/37 last time and 62/36/2 this time. Travis swung towards Roy. 6 Hill Country counties swung D. Neither candidate got a swing in Bexar/Comar/Hays.

TX22: Nehls won 62/36/2 last time and 62/38 this time. The entire district swung D.

TX23: Gonzales won 56/39/5 last time and 62/38 this time. The entire district swung R aside from Medina/Sutton/Reagan/Crane/Winkler/Loving. Gonzales went from winning Maverick County by 119 votes to winning it by 27% (a little under 3900 votes)

TX24: Van Duyne won 59.75/40.25 last time and 60.3/39.7 this time. Both counties swung R around the same %.

TX26:Burgress won 69/31 over a Libertarian and Gill won 62/36/2 over a Dem and Libertarian. Gill dropped by 7.6% in Denton, 4.7% in Cooke, and 3.1% in Wise.

TX27: Cloud won 64/36 last time and 66/34 this time. 5 Counties between Victoria and Corpus Christi swung R. 6 Counties between Victoria and San Marcos swung D. Tiny D swings happened in Aransas/Calhoun. Bastrop had a small R swing.

TX28: Cuellar won 57/43 last time and 53/47 this time. The entire district swung R. Cuellar won over 2/3rds of the vote in counties that Trump won.

TX32: Allred won 66/34 and Johnson won 60/37/3. Both counties swung R.

TX33: Veasey won 72/26/2 last time and 69/31 this time. Both counties swung R.

TX34: Gonzalez won 53/44/3 last time and 51/49 this time. 4 counties swung R and the several voters in Kenedy County swung D.

TX35: Casar won 73/27 last time and 67/33 this time. All 4 counties swung R.

TX36: Babin won 69.5/30.5 last time and 69.4/30.6 this time. 7 Counties swung D, including Babin losing his portion of Jefferson County, and Harris (where most of the votes are) swung R

TX37: Doggett won 77/21/2 last time and 74/24/2 this time. Both counties swung R.

So.. the RGV and urban areas swinging R. Some rural areas swinging D relative to 2022.

[Vosem]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

I wonder if some of it is Republican's own fault though as they're the ones tend to have greater distrust of things like the census and hence may be less likely to respond, meaning it was harder for them to pick up on the true growth in states like FL and TX.

Also the talk about the immigrant question may have scared some immigrants in red states like TX from filling out the census alltogether.

[RBH]

considering the Census was taking place during Covid, it's a bit of a wonder that it wasn't wonkier

[Skill and Chance]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

Yes, the R play here would be going to SCOTUS with a malapportionment case and trying to get a court ordered mid decade census and reapportionment during Trump's term, with the new EV allocations and congressional districts in place by 2028. 

And getting another SCOTUS ruling exploiting the time limiting line of argument Kavanaugh left open in Miligan that VRA Section 2 districts have run their course and are now unconstitutional racial gerrymanders in advance of the mid decade census redraw in the South would be the R coup de grace.  There would likely be <10 Dem districts total between Texas and Florida, roughly one in each major metro area.

[lfromnj]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

Would it? I doubt it's that high from true 2020 numbers. What states gain a seat and what states lose?
Minnesota would be a lost R seat at the expense of making Craig's seat more competitive but would still be Dem this year. CA would probably be another lost Dem seat, Not sure how NY goes. RI is a lost Dem seat . Anyway even assuming NY is a lost Dem seat thats -3 D and -1 R.
Gained seats would be AZ/TX/FL and TN?. AZ is already 6 R seats, definitely hard to see how R's could pick up 7/10 seats so thats a Dem gain.
In TN adding a tenth seats arguably makes it slightly easier to gerrymander Nashville out as you have 3 shrunken East TN seats and 2 shrunken west TN seats giving a bit more R areas to central TN and Sexton was very aggressive.

FL would probably be an R seat but the Texas GOP was very incumbent protective and it's possible they draw the 39th seat as a 4th DFW sink . Anyway +2.5 R +1.5 D. So overall R's maybe net 2 seats which they would obviously appreciate but it's not huge. It would have made a factor in the presidential race though as even a 1 EV swing means the Blue wall path only wasn't an option more.

[Skill and Chance]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

Would it? I doubt it's that high from true 2020 numbers. What states gain a seat and what states lose?
Minnesota would be a lost R seat at the expense of making Craig's seat more competitive but would still be Dem this year. CA would probably be another lost Dem seat, Not sure how NY goes. RI is a lost Dem seat . Anyway even assuming NY is a lost Dem seat thats -3 D and -1 R.
Gained seats would be AZ/TX/FL and TN?. AZ is already 6 R seats, definitely hard to see how R's could pick up 7/10 seats so thats a Dem gain.
In TN adding a tenth seats arguably makes it slightly easier to gerrymander Nashville out as you have 3 shrunken East TN seats and 2 shrunken west TN seats giving a bit more R areas to central TN and Sexton was very aggressive.

FL would probably be an R seat but the Texas GOP was very incumbent protective and it's possible they draw the 39th seat as a 4th DFW sink . Anyway +2.5 R +1.5 D. So overall R's maybe net 2 seats which they would obviously appreciate but it's not huge. It would have made a factor in the presidential race though as even a 1 EV swing means the Blue wall path only wasn't an option more.

Something to keep in mind is that the only actually viable remedy for the 2020 census issues (a court-odered mid decade census/reapportionment) would be more R favorable than just getting the 2020 census right originally would have been.  Because of COVID effects, it's likely that more than half of all the blue state -> red state migration this decade already happened by 2025, so a mid decade census would not only correct the original errors but also capture most of the expected 2030 census R gains 2 election cycles early.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

Yes, the R play here would be going to SCOTUS with a malapportionment case and trying to get a court ordered mid decade census and reapportionment during Trump's term, with the new EV allocations and congressional districts in place by 2028. 

And getting another SCOTUS ruling exploiting the time limiting line of argument Kavanaugh left open in Miligan that VRA Section 2 districts have run their course and are now unconstitutional racial gerrymanders in advance of the mid decade census redraw in the South would be the R coup de grace.  There would likely be <10 Dem districts total between Texas and Florida, roughly one in each major metro area.

This is US census fan fiction

[Skill and Chance]

The fundamental reason that the maps this decade favor Democrats is not because of redistricting issues -- while nowhere near as large as in 2011 Republicans still had something of an advantage in 2021, and indeed the NC mid-decade redistricting strengthened them -- but because the Census was substantially flawed and introduced a bias in favor of Northern urban areas against Southern suburban areas, which aids Democrats quite a bit. (Democrats are also just campaigning better; in 2024, among House races that were closer than 10%, Democrats won 46-22).

The solutions to this are either to do an early Census (which would be a godsend for Republican hacks), or just wait until 2032, which will be an amazing cycle for House Republicans basically no matter what.

Yes, the R play here would be going to SCOTUS with a malapportionment case and trying to get a court ordered mid decade census and reapportionment during Trump's term, with the new EV allocations and congressional districts in place by 2028. 

And getting another SCOTUS ruling exploiting the time limiting line of argument Kavanaugh left open in Miligan that VRA Section 2 districts have run their course and are now unconstitutional racial gerrymanders in advance of the mid decade census redraw in the South would be the R coup de grace.  There would likely be <10 Dem districts total between Texas and Florida, roughly one in each major metro area.

This is US census fan fiction

TBH true.  It goes hard against originalism/judicial minimalism so I don't see any way this kind of argument carries the day at SCOTUS.  They're not going to get this activist unless maybe Vance serves 2 terms and we get to the point where Jackson is the only Dem appointee left.  And I don't think Kavanaugh would have joined Miligan just to toss it < 5 years later.  It was more an invitation for a future SCOTUS to end VRA Section 2 districts in 20+ years, like O'Connor introduced the idea of a time limit on how long university affirmative action would be constitutional back in 2003.

[oldtimer]

Food for though mostly for future elections.

Part 1.

This is the largest number of House Democrats that went Republican for the Presidency since 2000.

And the largest undershoot for the Congressional (House and Senate) GOP overall since 1988 relative to the Presidency.

Irrespective of gerrymandering, Congressional Republicans should have done much better.

[oldtimer]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010)

Suburban House Republicans and red state Democrats in 2018.

[oldtimer]

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010)

Suburban House Republicans and red state Democrats in 2018.

Yeap.

Tension and inconsistency builds up, until it snaps.

[Spectator]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

[Mr.Phips]

Food for though mostly for future elections.

Part 1.

This is the largest number of House Democrats that went Republican for the Presidency since 2000.

Umm no?  Even after 2016, there were 12 Democrats in Trump districts.  

https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_districts_won_by_Donald_Trump_and_a_Democrat_in_2016

After 2008, there were like 47 Democrats in McCain districts.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mccain-districts-come-back-to-haunt-house-democrats/

[New World Man]

I'd hate to a Meeks or Van Orden depending on low info Trump voters in a Trump midterm.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

tbf most Democrats do think the severe economic downturn and inflation will happen as a result of the tariffs, and I'm inclined to agree (provided the tariffs actually get passed, which is a big if)

[ottermax]

Part 2.

Now when a large gap between local or state results and the Presidential top line appears, it closes abruptly at a Midterm wave. (see Northern GOP 2006, Southern Dem's 1994, 2010).

You've got something like 7.5% of the D's House Caucus now in Trump districts, that's a lot of seats.

This is what makes me skeptical of any assumption that 2026 will be a D wave just by virtue of not being Trump. They'll probably net a few seats to just barely win the House majority, sure, but to reach 2018 levels, you'd probably need Trump/GOP to be tainted with something like severe economic downturn or inflation. Calling ICE deportations inhumane won't do it.

tbf most Democrats do think the severe economic downturn and inflation will happen as a result of the tariffs, and I'm inclined to agree (provided the tariffs actually get passed, which is a big if)

I think most regular people are expecting Trump's economy to be strong... so if he disappoints I think there will be pretty widespread disatisfaction.

[Storr]

147 vote San Joaquin drop grows Gray's lead to 227.

"#CD13 Update
50.05% - 105,083 - Adam Gray (D)
49.95% - 104,856 - John Duarte (R)"

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1862710011849281568

[GAinDC]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

[UncleSam]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

I think Dems need to do a bit better than that in the senate to feel ok about 2026. Agree that a huge wave in the house isn’t super important as long as they take the majority.

[MillennialModerate]

Hell, as long as Dems take the house in 2026 and protect their senate incumbents then I’ll be happy.  I don’t need a big wave.  I just need Dems to have the gavel

if we ever want to see change in this country to impact our lives before we are too old for it to matter - we need to do more than tread water.

Anything less than 235 House seats and +2 in the Senate is a Failure. And barring a sea change that has an infantecimal chance of happening in ‘28 (cause MAGA voters are locksolid brainwashed) a poor ‘26 midterms eliminated chances of real electoral and policy movement for a generation