Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Recount in IA-01 is done, MMM won by 798 votes and AP and the networks have finally called it. Despite the narrow victory, it is still 133 times bigger than her margin of victory four years ago.

With the CA-45 call also coming today, the only uncalled race left is CA-13.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1861843442717917461

What is DeSantis's goal in posting a tweet like this? To showcase CA's incompetence and contrast it with Florida, sure, but the way he frames it also sounds like he's trying to dabble in election denialism (the less direct kind where they claim they are just asking questions because it seems kinda fishy to them)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

IMO Stefanik's seat is the only House special election that's even remotely a possible flip for Democrats. Upstate New York at least has a history of being swingy and having special election flips, unlike scenic Northern Florida.

"Scenic."

The Gulf coast in FL-01 is very nice.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1861843442717917461

What is DeSantis's goal in posting a tweet like this? To showcase CA's incompetence and contrast it with Florida, sure, but the way he frames it also sounds like he's trying to dabble in election denialism (the less direct kind where they claim they are just asking questions because it seems kinda fishy to them)

Don't worry, he'll be irrelevant in two years.

Assuming he doesn't appoint himself to Rubio's seat...

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1861843442717917461

What is DeSantis's goal in posting a tweet like this? To showcase CA's incompetence and contrast it with Florida, sure, but the way he frames it also sounds like he's trying to dabble in election denialism (the less direct kind where they claim they are just asking questions because it seems kinda fishy to them)

Honestly, I have a friend that works for a county in CA. California is very hardcore in making sure every vote is counted correctly. In a race this close it should take time if it gets challenged in court.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

IMO Stefanik's seat is the only House special election that's even remotely a possible flip for Democrats. Upstate New York at least has a history of being swingy and having special election flips, unlike scenic Northern Florida.

"Scenic."

The Gulf coast in FL-01 is very nice.

Yeah, the Gulf Coast in Mobile is also quite nice. If it weren't such a sh!tty state and South Alabama had a grad program for meteorology, I'd stick around.

[GALeftist]

Fresno just posted and Duarte only netted 40 votes; Gray still leads by nearly 200 votes. This was callable 24 hours ago, but the deal is well and truly sealed now.

[Epaminondas]

California and NY account for 6 out of 7 true House flips to Dems this cycle. Redemption after the 2022 carnage.

If a similar phenomenon kicks in now, 2026 isn't a lost cause.

[Tekken_Guy]

California and NY account for 6 out of 7 true House flips to Dems this cycle. Redemption after the 2022 carnage.

If a similar phenomenon kicks in now, 2026 isn't a lost cause.

And the seventh was in Oregon, also a state the GOP had a very good night in in 2022.

4 of the 5 true GOP flips were in states Dems vastly overperformed in 2022 and came back down to earth (PA, MI, CO). The fifth was basically the GOP learning how to use RCV in Alaska.

[Spectator]

Anyone have any idea how CA-45 is breaking down Presidentially?

[Storr]

"And in other 'too little, too late' news, San Joaquin County's update comes in, adding 204 votes in #CA13 that Republican John Duarte wins 51%/49%, trimming Democrat Adam Gray's lead by 4 votes down to 190 votes."

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1861950638457831716

[Spectator]

I think it's clear to me how Kristen McDonald Rivet did so well now:

https://www.instagram.com/kmcdonaldrivet/reel/DBevcvooboU/?hl=en

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1861843442717917461

What is DeSantis's goal in posting a tweet like this? To showcase CA's incompetence and contrast it with Florida, sure, but the way he frames it also sounds like he's trying to dabble in election denialism (the less direct kind where they claim they are just asking questions because it seems kinda fishy to them)

Don't worry, he'll be irrelevant in two years.

Assuming he doesn't appoint himself to Rubio's seat...

He already ran for the seat once, and likely would've been Senator if not for the efforts of Trump, Christie, and by total accident, Rubio.

Can't rule it out.

[Spectator]

Gabe Vasquez gets all the attention in NM for carrying a Trump district, but Teresa Leger Fernandez won Colfax County by 0.6% despite it going Trump +14 and Domenici +5.8% for Senate.

[RBH]

Choose your own Hawaii swing adventure

District 1: Case goes from winning 74/26 to winning 72/28. Every state house district in HI01 swings R except districts 18/19 in East Honolulu

District 2: Tokuda goes from winning 62/35 to winning 66/30. Every county swings in her favor.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1861855763909525775

[RBH]

I'd have to look at the results by HD to doublecheck but on first glance, I wonder how much of the Montana Dem success in legislative elections was candidates getting carried over the finish line by Tester because every other race in Montana was like 60/40 R

also a certain amount of the success was probably the new maps

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I think it's clear to me how Kristen McDonald Rivet did so well now:

https://www.instagram.com/kmcdonaldrivet/reel/DBevcvooboU/?hl=en

People love a straight-talking populist.

[Don't Be A Carrot Vote For Garrett]

I think it's clear to me how Kristen McDonald Rivet did so well now:

https://www.instagram.com/kmcdonaldrivet/reel/DBevcvooboU/?hl=en

Could be the first female president.

[Horus]

I think it's clear to me how Kristen McDonald Rivet did so well now:

https://www.instagram.com/kmcdonaldrivet/reel/DBevcvooboU/?hl=en

I like her already.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1861968856224346533

[RBH]

Montana Dems won 42 seats in the State House this year, a gain of 10 seats

Meanwhile Jon Tester won 46/100 seats on his way to a 53/45.5 loss. Also while Trump was winning 64/100 seats on his way to a 58/38 win.

So the Trump/Tester seats

HD04 (Whitefish/Columbia Falls): Trump won 52/45, Tester won 52/46, R won House seat 52/48
HD19 (Great Falls): Trump won by 21 votes (1616-1595), Tester won 58/40, D won House seat 55/45
HD20 (Great Falls): Trump won 53/44, Tester won 52/45, R won House seat 54/46
HD22 (Great Falls/Malmstrom AFB): Trump won 58/39, Tester won by 22 votes (1684-1662), R won House seat 62/38
HD23 (Great Falls): Trump won 54/43, Tester won 52/46, R won House seat 56/44
HD27 (Havre): Trump won 58/38, Tester won 49/48, D won House seat 52/48
HD42 (Crow IR): Trump won 52/44, Tester won 57/44, D won House seat 53/47
HD46 (Billings): Trump won 49/47, Tester won 54/43, D won House seat 53/47
HD71 (Anaconda/Walkerville): Trump won by 1 vote (2715-2714), Tester won 61/37, D won House seat 62/38
HD80 (Helena): Trump won by 8 votes (2683-2675), Tester won 56/42, D won House seat 54/46

There were 6 districts which went Trump/Tester/MT House Dem and 4 districts which went Trump/Tester/MT House Rep.

The Montana State Senate is 32/18 R and there's a few seats which could switch in 2026

SD10: 51/45 Trump, 54/43 Tester, R incumbent
SD29: 50/47 Harris, 55/43 Tester, termed-out R incumbent
SD42: 55/42 Trump, 50/48 Sheehy, D incumbent

Of course, there's no guarantees. Rs held SD21 as it voted 49/47 Trump and 60/38 Tester and SD24 as it voted 51/45 Trump and 53/44 Tester.

Also, House/Senate candidates just have to live in the same county as one of the counties in district, so an incumbent could just jump to another seat (say if a bordering safer district was opened by a termed out incumbent)

[Epaminondas]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1861968856224346533

Or, more infuriatingly, NY legislators chickening out at fully nuking the 2022 GOP map. It could easily have been 22-4 instead of 19-7, by pairing Staten with Park Slope and shuffling around the Hudson valley and LI.

Always striking to notice the perverse incentives in NY and CA to sabotage the entire country for minuscule local power gains.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1861968856224346533

Or, more infuriatingly, NY legislators chickening out at fully nuking the 2022 GOP map. It could easily have been 22-4 instead of 19-7, by pairing Staten with Park Slope and shuffling around the Hudson valley and LI.

Always striking to notice the perverse incentives in NY and CA to sabotage the entire country for minuscule local power gains.

LaLota and Malliotakis would have survived the Hochulmander both years, but it possibly did save Lawler.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1861968856224346533

Lol, Rep. Mike Lawler responded to Dave Wasserman's tweet with this:

"If IL, NJ, and CA actually had fair maps, the GOP majority would be consistent with the House popular vote and Trump’s win. The Dems tried a second bite at the apple in NY with another gerrymander — albeit smaller — and spent $250m in NY… and still are in the Minority…"

What about Texas, North Carolina, or Florida Mike? I guess gerrymandering is bad only when Democrats do it.

Also, I don't know how anyone can seriously claim California's maps are unfair. Blast California for taking weeks to count votes all you want, that's a valid issue to bring up. But the state's Congressional map? The fact CA has so many competitive seats despite the state's overall Dem slant shows that its maps are fair. Meanwhile NC has 1 competitive seat, Texas 1 (maybe 2?) as well, and Florida none.