Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Spectator]

Where do you get 15 to 20 Trump-seat Democrats? I only count 12 to 13.

What are the seats? I count:

CA-13
MI-08
ME-02
NV-03
NM-02
NC-01
NY-03
NY-04 (?)
NY-19 (?)
OH-09
OH-13
TX-28
TX-34
WA-03

For Republicans in Harris seats, I think it's just Bacon? Unless the Montgomery portion narrowly tipped PA-01 to Harris.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1861811778407006644

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728
House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

Why would it be?

2022 wasn't a neutral year for no reason- there was Dobbs but the Democratic coalition is also better built for low turnout years.

What, between the tariffs and everything else, would allow the Republicans to win in 2026?

(I should add that I don't think it will be a 2018 style wave, regardless of what happens, but some kind of 5 seat Democratic gain in the House/neutral year is clearly not going to happen)

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Also, another fun fact, but Adam Gray will be the second member of Congress who I've met.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728
House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

Why would it be?

2022 wasn't a neutral year for no reason- there was Dobbs but the Democratic coalition is also better built for low turnout years.

What, between the tariffs and everything else, would allow the Republicans to win in 2026?

(I should add that I don't think it will be a 2018 style wave, regardless of what happens, but some kind of 5 seat Democratic gain in the House/neutral year is clearly not going to happen)

If Dems double down on the most unpopular elements that they're associated with. You can even see hints of that with some on this forum post-Election Day with people in denial about Harris's pretty obvious flaws and the Dems' image problem. You can see that turn 2026 from a blue wave to a blue puddle where there's no change in the Senate and Dems just barely retake the House or barely lose it again. That's probably the worst-case scenario for Dems. Even then, I'd still bet on Dems narrowly retaking the House at worst since they will probably ride isolated blue waves in states like PA and MI from Shapiro and Benson which would be enough to flip the House on its own.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728
House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

Why would it be?

2022 wasn't a neutral year for no reason- there was Dobbs but the Democratic coalition is also better built for low turnout years.

What, between the tariffs and everything else, would allow the Republicans to win in 2026?

(I should add that I don't think it will be a 2018 style wave, regardless of what happens, but some kind of 5 seat Democratic gain in the House/neutral year is clearly not going to happen)

If Dems double down on the most unpopular elements that they're associated with. You can even see hints of that with some on this forum post-Election Day with people in denial about Harris's pretty obvious flaws and the Dems' image problem. You can see that turn 2026 from a blue wave to a blue puddle where there's no change in the Senate and Dems just barely retake the House or barely lose it again. That's probably the worst-case scenario for Dems. Even then, I'd still bet on Dems narrowly retaking the House at worst since they will probably ride isolated blue waves in states like PA and MI from Shapiro and Benson which would be enough to flip the House on its own.

Well I also think that even if the party itself doubles down individual candidates won't. The non-Ultra MAGA candidates were key to giving the GOP the House in 2022 (If Don Bacon went entirely by the Trumpist party line we'd be celebrating the recent re-election of Congressman Tony Vargas) and I suspect that even in a worst-case scenario people like Rebecca Cooke will still deliver the House.

[Agafin]

https://x.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728
House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

Why would it be?

2022 wasn't a neutral year for no reason- there was Dobbs but the Democratic coalition is also better built for low turnout years.

What, between the tariffs and everything else, would allow the Republicans to win in 2026?

(I should add that I don't think it will be a 2018 style wave, regardless of what happens, but some kind of 5 seat Democratic gain in the House/neutral year is clearly not going to happen)

Things just seem very different from 2016. Back then, democrats were eager to show how much they disapproved of Trump, protests were organized almost immediately after he won and the Women's march in January or February had something like 4 million participants. Today, no such thing has happened and a recent New York Times article confirms that protest organizers are having a hard finding any interested individuals because democrats are tuning out entirely of politics for a while. Trump is also enjoying a true honeymoon right now (based on polling) something that wasn't really the case in 2016.

Also, democrats (or democratic learners  like you) are predicting an economic collapse as a result of tariffs. If by November 2026, the economy has in fact not collapsed then the administration will look better due to the incredibly low bar you've all set for it.

[New World Man]

People like Van Orden are dead in a non-presidential year. So is Miller Meeks and probably Scott Perry.

[GAinDC]

https://x.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728
House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

Why would it be?

2022 wasn't a neutral year for no reason- there was Dobbs but the Democratic coalition is also better built for low turnout years.

What, between the tariffs and everything else, would allow the Republicans to win in 2026?

(I should add that I don't think it will be a 2018 style wave, regardless of what happens, but some kind of 5 seat Democratic gain in the House/neutral year is clearly not going to happen)

Things just seem very different from 2016. Back then, democrats were eager to show how much they disapproved of Trump, protests were organized almost immediately after he won and the Women's march in January or February had something like 4 million participants. Today, no such thing has happened and a recent New York Times article confirms that protest organizers are having a hard finding any interested individuals because democrats are tuning out entirely of politics for a while. Trump is also enjoying a true honeymoon right now (based on polling) something that wasn't really the case in 2016.

Also, democrats (or democratic learners  like you) are predicting an economic collapse as a result of tariffs. If by November 2026, the economy has in fact not collapsed then the administration will look better due to the incredibly low bar you've all set for it.

If anything, Dems not throwing tantrums and treating R’s as normal opposition may actually help them by keeping the MAGA people from getting riled up.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1861863142453625224

[lfromnj]

Just noticed Collin Allred in TX had a 49/46 favorability score
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/texas/general/president/0

[GeorgiaModerate]

Steel losing is a good example of the truism that there are always a few bright spots in an election your side lost, for Democrats.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1861879377748730121

[Virginiá]

Just noticed Collin Allred in TX had a 49/46 favorability score
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/texas/general/president/0

He's nice, but I just want to be friends

[windjammer]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

[Mr.Phips]

Where do you get 15 to 20 Trump-seat Democrats? I only count 12 to 13.

What are the seats? I count:

CA-13
MI-08
ME-02
NV-03
NM-02
NC-01
NY-03
NY-04 (?)
NY-19 (?)
OH-09
OH-13
TX-28
TX-34
WA-03

For Republicans in Harris seats, I think it's just Bacon? Unless the Montgomery portion narrowly tipped PA-01 to Harris.

NY-04 and NY-19 were narrow Harris.

[ottermax]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

Time for Democrats to start making a big stink about the tariffs on Canada!

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

So it looks like Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY22) takes home the trophy for worst defeat of an incumbent this cycle. Official results currently have him down 9 points to his victorious challenger.

[Tekken_Guy]

So it looks like Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY22) takes home the trophy for worst defeat of an incumbent this cycle. Official results currently have him down 9 points to his victorious challenger.

I think he's underperforming Trump in his seat.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

So it looks like Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY22) takes home the trophy for worst defeat of an incumbent this cycle. Official results currently have him down 9 points to his victorious challenger.

I think he's underperforming Trump in his seat.

I honestly expected D'Esposito to have this bad of a defeat with all of his scandals, but he almost pulled off a win, instead. Strange election.

[Roll Roons]

So it looks like Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY22) takes home the trophy for worst defeat of an incumbent this cycle. Official results currently have him down 9 points to his victorious challenger.

I think he's underperforming Trump in his seat.

I honestly expected D'Esposito to have this bad of a defeat with all of his scandals, but he almost pulled off a win, instead. Strange election.

Nassau County swung way harder to the right than Upstate. IIRC Trump very nearly won NY-04.

[Storr]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

IMO Stefanik's seat is the only House special election that's even remotely a possible flip for Democrats. Upstate New York at least has a history of being swingy and having special election flips, unlike scenic Northern Florida.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/derek-tran-wins-district-45-michelle-steel/3553711/
Michelle Steel concedes Congressional District 45 race to challenger Derek Tran

Not my joke: Nancy Mace: 'not another Tran in Congress!'

[Storr]

228 signature cures from Merced County grow Gray's lead to 234 votes:

"#CD13 Update
50.06% - 104,643 - Adam Gray (D)
49.94% - 104,409 - John Duarte (R)"

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1861912218624823487

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alright so congress will probably be 220R-215D.


Any chances of a special election flipping a Seat to the democrats ? I have the feeling stefanik's district could be a possibility

IMO Stefanik's seat is the only House special election that's even remotely a possible flip for Democrats. Upstate New York at least has a history of being swingy and having special election flips, unlike scenic Northern Florida.

"Scenic."