Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[Horus]

So it's gonna start off at 219-215 and quite possibly go down to 217-215 with Stefanik and Waltz leaving. That should be enough to stop some really egregious crap, as I doubt Johnson will be able to hold such a tiny majority together all the time.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1861613032885137734?t=S0EqVShYO9oQ5yw6eG4Ztw&a...
Not an account that makes such predictions without being sure.

[Spectator]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

I hate North Carolina Republicans so much. Truly, truly evil to redistrict mid-decade like that. ESPECIALLY when North Carolina was a state with some of the most egregious gerrymanders ever and it FINALLY got a fair map for the first time ever that split 7-7 as any NC delegation should.

And for the NCGOP to coax someone into switching parties to give them a supermajority. And to pass laws stripping the governor of veto power. And the sheer luck of them winning a few state supreme court seats by like 200 votes. All to end up with this result, when it would've been a 218D-217R result otherwise.

And for Tricia Cotham to survive by half a point when she did this is just nasty lol

The Silver lining is that Cotham is probably an underdog for 2026, and her mom already lost in a primary. Curious if Harris might've carried her HD Presidentially (it was Trump + 2 in 2020) - would honestly make her win suck more.

The numbers I plugged in on my excel sheet indicate yes, probably by 100-200 votes. I don't think mail/absentee is distributed by precinct since the numbers I have are

Cotham: 25380 (27303 total)
Sidman: 24212 (27087 total)

Trump: 25094
Harris: 24328

So 400 vote margin closer on the presidential race indicates Harris just narrowly eked out a win even as Mecklenburg County as a whole swung against her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

I hate North Carolina Republicans so much. Truly, truly evil to redistrict mid-decade like that. ESPECIALLY when North Carolina was a state with some of the most egregious gerrymanders ever and it FINALLY got a fair map for the first time ever that split 7-7 as any NC delegation should.

And for the NCGOP to coax someone into switching parties to give them a supermajority. And to pass laws stripping the governor of veto power. And the sheer luck of them winning a few state supreme court seats by like 200 votes. All to end up with this result, when it would've been a 218D-217R result otherwise.

And for Tricia Cotham to survive by half a point when she did this is just nasty lol

The Silver lining is that Cotham is probably an underdog for 2026, and her mom already lost in a primary. Curious if Harris might've carried her HD Presidentially (it was Trump + 2 in 2020) - would honestly make her win suck more.

The numbers I plugged in on my excel sheet indicate yes, probably by 100-200 votes. I don't think mail/absentee is distributed by precinct since the numbers I have are

Cotham: 25380 (27303 total)
Sidman: 24212 (27087 total)

Trump: 25094
Harris: 24328

So 400 vote margin closer on the presidential race indicates Harris just narrowly eked out a win even as Mecklenburg County as a whole swung against her.

Nice work - not too suprised because the County didn't shift right by much and was likely moreso due to turnout differential and black right shift. Also just seeing Gaston and Cabarrus Counties shifted marginally less it makes sense. I would guess Harris carried HD-98 (North Mecklenburg, Biden + 1) as well.

It does seem like there were a decent amount of suburbs that did swing to Harris, but it's masked by the fact many of these suburbs are in large counties where turnout differential and rightwards shift in other places caused the County as a whole to swing right.

In my COI thread for instance, I found 14/58 MN's COIs swung to Harris from 2020 Pres - 13 are within the greater MSP area (the other is Rochester) and none are within counties that had a topline shift left.

[Spectator]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

I hate North Carolina Republicans so much. Truly, truly evil to redistrict mid-decade like that. ESPECIALLY when North Carolina was a state with some of the most egregious gerrymanders ever and it FINALLY got a fair map for the first time ever that split 7-7 as any NC delegation should.

And for the NCGOP to coax someone into switching parties to give them a supermajority. And to pass laws stripping the governor of veto power. And the sheer luck of them winning a few state supreme court seats by like 200 votes. All to end up with this result, when it would've been a 218D-217R result otherwise.

And for Tricia Cotham to survive by half a point when she did this is just nasty lol

The Silver lining is that Cotham is probably an underdog for 2026, and her mom already lost in a primary. Curious if Harris might've carried her HD Presidentially (it was Trump + 2 in 2020) - would honestly make her win suck more.

The numbers I plugged in on my excel sheet indicate yes, probably by 100-200 votes. I don't think mail/absentee is distributed by precinct since the numbers I have are

Cotham: 25380 (27303 total)
Sidman: 24212 (27087 total)

Trump: 25094
Harris: 24328

So 400 vote margin closer on the presidential race indicates Harris just narrowly eked out a win even as Mecklenburg County as a whole swung against her.

Nice work - not too suprised because the County didn't shift right by much and was likely moreso due to turnout differential and black right shift. Also just seeing Gaston and Cabarrus Counties shifted marginally less it makes sense. I would guess Harris carried HD-98 (North Mecklenburg, Biden + 1) as well.

It does seem like there were a decent amount of suburbs that did swing to Harris, but it's masked by the fact many of these suburbs are in large counties where turnout differential and rightwards shift in other places caused the County as a whole to swing right.

In my COI thread for instance, I found 14/58 MN's COIs swung to Harris from 2020 Pres - 13 are within the greater MSP area (the other is Rochester) and none are within counties that had a topline shift left.

Just lazily eyeballing it, all six Dem statewide winners won it pretty easily as well. Jackson won it by about 3000 votes even without the mail/absentees allocated. Stein probably won it by 20 points give or take. Wouldn't be surprised if Cotham won just by virtue of people accidentally thinking she was still a D when they voted. In the open state senate race, the Dem did extremely poorly in a lot of precincts that Cotham's Dem opponent won. Dunno what the dynamics of that race were. The Dem barely won that race, but it is much more Dem than Cotham's House seat.

[RBH]

So it's gonna start off at 219-215 and quite possibly go down to 217-215 with Stefanik and Waltz leaving. That should be enough to stop some really egregious crap, as I doubt Johnson will be able to hold such a tiny majority together all the time.

"Henry, we'll drop all the charges if you switch parties"

[ProgressiveModerate]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

I hate North Carolina Republicans so much. Truly, truly evil to redistrict mid-decade like that. ESPECIALLY when North Carolina was a state with some of the most egregious gerrymanders ever and it FINALLY got a fair map for the first time ever that split 7-7 as any NC delegation should.

And for the NCGOP to coax someone into switching parties to give them a supermajority. And to pass laws stripping the governor of veto power. And the sheer luck of them winning a few state supreme court seats by like 200 votes. All to end up with this result, when it would've been a 218D-217R result otherwise.

And for Tricia Cotham to survive by half a point when she did this is just nasty lol

The Silver lining is that Cotham is probably an underdog for 2026, and her mom already lost in a primary. Curious if Harris might've carried her HD Presidentially (it was Trump + 2 in 2020) - would honestly make her win suck more.

The numbers I plugged in on my excel sheet indicate yes, probably by 100-200 votes. I don't think mail/absentee is distributed by precinct since the numbers I have are

Cotham: 25380 (27303 total)
Sidman: 24212 (27087 total)

Trump: 25094
Harris: 24328

So 400 vote margin closer on the presidential race indicates Harris just narrowly eked out a win even as Mecklenburg County as a whole swung against her.

Nice work - not too suprised because the County didn't shift right by much and was likely moreso due to turnout differential and black right shift. Also just seeing Gaston and Cabarrus Counties shifted marginally less it makes sense. I would guess Harris carried HD-98 (North Mecklenburg, Biden + 1) as well.

It does seem like there were a decent amount of suburbs that did swing to Harris, but it's masked by the fact many of these suburbs are in large counties where turnout differential and rightwards shift in other places caused the County as a whole to swing right.

In my COI thread for instance, I found 14/58 MN's COIs swung to Harris from 2020 Pres - 13 are within the greater MSP area (the other is Rochester) and none are within counties that had a topline shift left.

Just lazily eyeballing it, all six Dem statewide winners won it pretty easily as well. Jackson won it by about 3000 votes even without the mail/absentees allocated. Stein probably won it by 20 points give or take. Wouldn't be surprised if Cotham won just by virtue of people accidentally thinking she was still a D when they voted. In the open state senate race, the Dem did extremely poorly in a lot of precincts that Cotham's Dem opponent won. Dunno what the dynamics of that race were. The Dem barely won that race, but it is much more Dem than Cotham's House seat.

Just doing some breif research seems like the Dem had a small scandal in that race. This is also an area that generally has some downballot lag and I wonder if Cotham getting her 5 second of may have actually eroded possible crossover support from if she were just an R to begin with.

[Mr. Smith]

Would be darkly hilarious if Gray goes down in 2026.  Him winning this is just so very...TJ Cox.

[Tekken_Guy]

Would be darkly hilarious if Gray goes down in 2026.  Him winning this is just so very...TJ Cox.

2020 was a redder year than 2018. Unlikely to be the case in 2026 vs. 2024.

[smoltchanov]

Well, if Gary wins he, most likely, will be one of more moderate members (especially - by California standards) of Democratic caucus (as he was in California Assembly, and as most Democrats from Central Valley are). Ironically, Duarte is also relatively moderate for California Republican of present days....

[Agafin]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

Republicans won the house popular vote by 3 points. If anything, it'd be more accurate to say that the Nevada/Illinois gerrymander almost cost republicans their house majority.

[Pericles]

So it's official - The Republican's North Carolina congressional gerrymander won them a House majority.

Republicans won the house popular vote by 3 points. If anything, it'd be more accurate to say that the Nevada/Illinois gerrymander almost cost republicans their house majority.

We'll have to see the presidential results by congressional district, but it almost seems like Republicans are just randomly weaker in the competitive races rather than actually having a worse vote distribution.

[GALeftist]

Would be darkly hilarious if Gray goes down in 2026.  Him winning this is just so very...TJ Cox.

I think this is very different tbh. Trump 100% won this district, probably won every county in the district, too; Harris might have won the CA-13 portion of San Joaquin but it was close. This is to say that Gray not only winning but knocking off an incumbent who was not obviously vulnerable for any reason other than being in previously unfriendly territory that is now quite friendly is extremely impressive, notwithstanding downballot lag. In contrast, Cox was an extremely weak candidate who lucked into knocking off an actual electoral titan solely because the combination of extremely blue district and extremely blue year was too much to withstand for 2018.

That being said, Gray definitely could lose in 2026, and will certainly have his hands full in 2028, what with midterm turnout dynamics and the rightward trend of Central Valley Hispanics. But Adam Gray is clearly a competent campaigner, and if/when he ends up losing it will probably be because the district is just straight up turning red

[Oryxslayer]

Would be darkly hilarious if Gray goes down in 2026.  Him winning this is just so very...TJ Cox.

I think this is very different tbh. Trump 100% won this district, probably won every county in the district, too; Harris might have won the CA-13 portion of San Joaquin but it was close. This is to say that Gray not only winning but knocking off an incumbent who was not obviously vulnerable for any reason other than being in previously unfriendly territory that is now quite friendly is extremely impressive, notwithstanding downballot lag. In contrast, Cox was an extremely weak candidate who lucked into knocking off an actual electoral titan solely because the combination of extremely blue district and extremely blue year was too much to withstand for 2018.

We're going to need to wait for State certification in 2 weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised if the central valley districts are a good deal more Dem then the county results suggest. This is of course because of Districts 5 and 20, and how the mappers used these to pack in the White voters that the GOP relies on in the valley to create Hispanic access seats. For example, Stanislaus was 58-42 R in the 2022 Gov race (54-43 now) and Newsom only lost the CA-13 bit 49.6-50.4.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Tran and Gray eking it out would certainly make up for MMM continuing to eke it out in IA-01 at least lol

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1861612224000700669
220-215

"That was mostly it for Stanislaus County, which is down to 196 conditional registration ballots, plus any signature cures.

No further updates from Stanislaus until certification on December 3rd.

Updates are expected tomorrow [Wednesday] from red-leaning Fresno County (eta 5PM) and blue-leaning San Joaquin County tomorrow (eta 7PM)."

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1861613690941853786

[Sir Mohamed]

At what number is the GOP end up after Trump's nominees of the House are confirmed? I've lost track at this stage.

[Nyvin]

At what number is the GOP end up after Trump's nominees of the House are confirmed? I've lost track at this stage.

217-215 for the first few months.  Essentially unworkable for party line votes.

[Skill and Chance]

At what number is the GOP end up after Trump's nominees of the House are confirmed? I've lost track at this stage.

217-215 for the first few months.  Essentially unworkable for party line votes.

Maybe Trump will rescind his nomination of a least one of the House members, or coordinate to stagger them until after special elections can be held?  Then there's also the possibility of pressuring Cuellar to switch parties.

If CA-13 ends up close enough to have a legal dispute (uncertain, but plausible), I would also imagine Mike Johnson goes out of his way not to seat a winner until after the Gaetz/Waltz specials?  FWIW Al Franken was not seated until July of 2009 following his recount and associated election litigation.

[Sir Mohamed]

At what number is the GOP end up after Trump's nominees of the House are confirmed? I've lost track at this stage.

217-215 for the first few months.  Essentially unworkable for party line votes.

That's going to be a rocky start for the admin. Even in 2021, I thought Biden was taking too many House members out.

I'm curious how the speaker election goes. Even with 220 or 221 seats, it's going to be interesting. But I could imagine Trump backing Johnson will move most critics.

[DrScholl]

California has no automatic recount law and any recount would have to be paid for by the candidate. Not much of a legal challenge is possible outside of that.

[Dan the Roman]

California has no automatic recount law and any recount would have to be paid for by the candidate. Not much of a legal challenge is possible outside of that.

Only real challenge is going to the house itself and no one wants to open that can of worms. Though given it won't be doing legislation and there is serious irritation, I wouldn't be shocked if they set Oversight loose on California's late counting in general.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1861784799968399728

House republicans did about as well this year in the popular vote as they did two years ago. I wonder if the 2026 midterms will be a repeat of the 2022 midterms but in reverse (that is no big wave against the incumbent party). There is a LOT of low hanging fruit for republicans in this house afterall (15 to 20 Trump/dem seats versus only 2 Harris/GOP seats).

[Talleyrand]

Where do you get 15 to 20 Trump-seat Democrats? I only count 12 to 13.

[Accordion Hazard]

The GOP still unambiguously dominates the gerrymandering game. NY botched their gerrymander and eventually settled for a reduced version, while CA refuses to gerrymander. Meanwhile the GOP has powerful gerrymanders not just in every red state they can but some purple states too.

The actual reason the GOP is losing ground is trends of them gaining ground in rural areas but losing it in suburban ones is making their coalition less geographically efficient.