Official 2024 Congressional Election Results thread

[CentristRepublican]

Decision Desk now has Casey at more likely to win than McCormick!

A sigh of relief, but NV seems to be slipping. So we still end up with 53-47. Pretty bad, but it could have been much worse.

I'd much rather win PA than NV tbh. I don't love Rosen and Brown didn't deserve to lose just because of his facial disfigurement (a testament to his service to his country).

[Neocon Dem]

I think CNN might be ahead of Decision Desk in vote count, which may explain their forecast currently.

[CentristRepublican]

How's Casey looking? What are his odds?

He's down by 0.8 and most of the vote is in. But there's a decent amount still left of Philadelphia. Centre has some leftover VBMs. And some of Erie.

Otoh, blood-red Cambria is only one-third in and it's disproportionately Democratic right now.

[wbrocks67]

How's Casey looking? What are his odds?

He's down by 0.8 and most of the vote is in. But there's a decent amount still left of Philadelphia. Centre has some leftover VBMs. And some of Erie.

Otoh, blood-red Cambria is only one-third in and it's disproportionately Democratic right now.

Yeah depends what else is out elsewhere. I think there's a smattering of extra votes in Allegheny, Montco and other places that could ultimately decide it. And how much of Philly e-day vote is out right now (they have about 17 precincts not reporting)

[wbrocks67]

Well, you have to hand it to the NY Dems for once... their House results were pretty amazing shockingly. Pat Ryan's margin is just wow.

[Atlas Force]

Well, you have to hand it to the NY Dems for once... their House results were pretty amazing shockingly. Pat Ryan's margin is just wow.

He should be on the 2028 ticket

[henster]

I thought Casey was a goner is he still in this really? What is the math for him rn?

[prag_prog]

some people were so confident throughout this cycle as if Casey was an electoral juggernaut and now he is barely doing like 1 pt better than Kamala lol. Atleast I am glad, Tammy survived.

[wbrocks67]

I thought Casey was a goner is he still in this really? What is the math for him rn?

He's down about 48K

We've still got 30-40K left in Philly (possibly more) depending on how much e-day vote is left from 17 precincts (30k is mail) and whatever provisionals left

23-27K VBM from Centre County has not been processed yet

Cambria has e-day out though

Allegheny and Montco I think may have like 5-10k still out and smattering among other counties I think with whatever remaining VBM/provisionals

He has a small path but if he wins it would only be like 5-10k probably

[wbrocks67]

some people were so confident throughout this cycle as if Casey was an electoral juggernaut and now he is barely doing like 1 pt better than Kamala lol. Atleast I am glad, Tammy survived.

Feels like they could call both Baldwin and Slotkin at this point

[prag_prog]

some people were so confident throughout this cycle as if Casey was an electoral juggernaut and now he is barely doing like 1 pt better than Kamala lol. Atleast I am glad, Tammy survived.

Feels like they could call both Baldwin and Slotkin at this point

DDHQ called Baldwin...I am not following official tv channels, so not sure. When I went to bed yesterday at around 3AM, I knew Baldwin, Slotkin, Gallego would survive whereas Casey looked almost done. NYT needle estimate was pretty useful...using that helped me feel better about Senate races even when they were down

[wbrocks67]

are we expecting a blue shift in AZ at this point?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It doesn't seem like CNN/NYT has added new numbers from Nye yet, but according to the Nye County election summary report it looks like Brown will net around 5000 votes there comapred to the numbers posted at CNN.

[Senate Minority Leader Voldemort]

Yikes, Nevada looks really shaky for Rosen.

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in Arizona. Completely clueless.

[Spectator]

Yikes, Nevada looks really shaky for Rosen.

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in Arizona. Completely clueless.

Gallego should be fine

[PALiberal]

AP called the Wisconsin Senate Race for Baldwin almost 10 minutes ago. Ticket splitting is still alive yay

[somco]

NYT calls WI for Baldwin.

Cambria might screw Casey. Least reported county in the state because of voting scanning issues yesterday (one of my friends was affected by it.)

I think he still has a path, but it'll be real narrow if he pulls it off.

[Spectator]

Local media calls ME-02 for Golden

https://www.bangordailynews.com/2024/11/06/politics/elections/jared-golden-beats-austin-theriault-maine-2nd-district/

[somco]

Michigan should be called any second now. Slotkin's lead just jumped from 0.3 to 1.3 after the latest batch; raw margin jumped from 17,000 to 68,000.

Brown now up by 6,000 (47.5 to 47.0) in Nevada.

[Storr]

Michigan should be called any second now. Slotkin's lead just jumped from 0.3 to 1.3 after the latest batch; raw margin jumped from 17,000 to 68,000.

Brown now up by 6,000 (47.5 to 47.0) in Nevada.

It looks like it will come down to Washoe (75% in) and Nye (43% in). Rosen currently leads in Washoe, so it seems possible (but unlikely) she could net enough votes to take the lead there.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/nevada/senate/

[somco]

Ready to call it -- Slotkin prevails in MI-SEN. Not enough vote left for Rogers.

Casey's deficit in PA has been narrowed to 34,000 (he trails McCormick, 49.0 to 48.5)

Michigan should be called any second now. Slotkin's lead just jumped from 0.3 to 1.3 after the latest batch; raw margin jumped from 17,000 to 68,000.

Brown now up by 6,000 (47.5 to 47.0) in Nevada.

It looks like it will come down to Washoe (75% in) and Nye (43% in). Rosen currently leads in Washoe, so it seems possible (but unlikely) she could net enough votes to take the lead there.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/nevada/senate/

There should still be some out of Clark left too, yeah? NYT has it at 86% in, not sure how accurate that is.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan should be called any second now. Slotkin's lead just jumped from 0.3 to 1.3 after the latest batch; raw margin jumped from 17,000 to 68,000.

Brown now up by 6,000 (47.5 to 47.0) in Nevada.

It looks like it will come down to Washoe (75% in) and Nye (43% in). Rosen currently leads in Washoe, so it seems possible (but unlikely) she could net enough votes to take the lead there.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/nevada/senate/

There should still be some out of Clark left too, yeah? NYT has it at 86% in, not sure how accurate that is.

Yeah I believe Ralston said Clark still has a good chunk of mail out

[wbrocks67]

Philly just dropped 20K more VBM, narrowed McCormick's margin from 48K to to a little under 34K.

They still have up to 8K VBM + provisionals and some e-day left

Still waiting on those Centre VBM and Cambria e-day

Montco's website says they may have up to 8K VBM left

So depends on how much all of this adds up

[Queen Isuelt]

Any word on how many ballots are left in Alaska really want her to hold on. A good Democrat america needs

[henster]

Looks like Dems will be at 46-47 seats next year. Steep hole to climb out of to have a chance of a majority again in this decade.

At 46 seats ME+NC would have to be absolute pickups in '26 while we must hold GA/MI and hope for a miracle pickup in either OH/AK and if not NC+WI are must pickups in 2028 just to get a tie. 47 seats things are a great deal easier for Dems.