Official 2024 Presidential Election Results thread

[Higgs]

Anybody have a link to that "red mirage vs blue mirage" map? Or remember what thread that was in?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Georgia: "who do you trust more to handle a crisis?"

Trump 51 / Harris 47

Biden approval: 41 approve, 58 disapprove

Yeah, if the exit polls for Georgia hold, I think they foretell a very close Trump victory in the state.

The polls in Georgia are literally not closed.

And?

[Izzyeviel]

I’ll wait for the counties to reach 100% but if they’re around the same as right now, I have seen enough. Kamala Harris will win this election, even if Trump flips AZ, NV and GA in a pessimistic scenario.

No way you have these trends in Indiana (on par with 2020 or even a bit better for democrats) and Kamala still loses in MI, WI, PA.

Go outside, turn around ten times & spit

[wbrocks67]

The NYT map keeps breaking

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Are these early Indiana results really all mail EV? (specially all those 50+% results counties)

apparently some, like Hamilton, have some ED

that’s okay really, it happens to a lot of counties

[Woody]

Taylor Count KY 88% in. Trump +56 vs. Trump +51 in 2020. Trump +51 in 2016.

HAHAHA!

Premonition of how the rest of the night will be.

[MasterJedi]

Taylor Count KY 88% in. Trump +56 vs. Trump +51 in 2020. Trump +51 in 2016.

Omgfg...please tell me this is a reporting error or something. Kamala can't afford any rural erosion.

She can in KY lol

Not in the rest of the Midwest or NC.

Those states aren’t like KY.

[LostFellow]

Potentially some ag vs hill country polarization occurring between IN and KY, where the former are wary of tariffs a bit more (also the whole great plains thing going on with Selzer). Picture is still unclear though of course.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

65% of Bartholomew County just dropped and Trump is slightly down from 2020.

Running theme so far

“Lose by less in areas where you’re losing a lot” is going to be the theme for Harris in the firewall

That was Fetterman's strategy against Oz -- drive down the margin in ruby-red counties from Trump 2020 levels. 

I fondly remember your county-by-county PA updates through the night.  Are you going to do that again tonight?

Egh, probably not.  It was fun going on a tour of all the counties, but with this thread moving at two times the speed (or more), it'd be tough to keep up with all the updates.    But I may pop in with a few key county updates as well as some fun facts.  It'll depend on the mood. 

[Steve from Lambeth]

The NYT map keeps breaking

If in doubt, blame the Tech Guild

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Taylor County, KY claims to be 88% in. If true it would be a decent right shift from 2020 but also a notable turnout decline overall. Makes me think it's not really 88% in.

A stark turnout drop makes any such jurisdiction less relevant in the results. Getting your margin up 5% but suffering a 25% turnout drop is usually an awful deal.

[NYDem]

I think I'm going to take a swing over by the Temple University precinct, see if I can't get myself on the broadcast tonight. I'll also take the opportunity to give you all some quality anecdotal reports.

[oldtimer]

Taylor County, KY claims to be 88% in. If true it would be a decent right shift from 2020 but also a notable turnout decline overall. Makes me think it's not really 88% in.

CNN has it 70% in.

[Aurelius2]

Taylor Count KY 88% in. Trump +56 vs. Trump +51 in 2020. Trump +51 in 2016.

HAHAHA!

Premonition of how the rest of the night will be.

Likely reporting error, unless turnout is down ~20% from 2020. Time will tell.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Once again universal swing isn't real. In 2016, there were a lot of counties with strong swings towards HRC. Trump got strong swings in many counties in 2020. Especially in these rural counties you can have a decent amount of varation so even if 1 rural county is in and shows a certain siwng don't try to extrapolate too much to the rest of the midwest.

[wbrocks67]

Taylor Count KY 88% in. Trump +56 vs. Trump +51 in 2020. Trump +51 in 2016.

Omgfg...please tell me this is a reporting error or something. Kamala can't afford any rural erosion.

She can in KY lol

Not in the rest of the Midwest or NC.

I mean, those rurals they actually put time and effort into ... they didn't for KY.

[Banana Republican]

Targetsmart partisanship (yes, take with a grain of salt)for the early vote in Hamilton County is:

32.8% Dem
50.0% Rep


By comparison, the targetsmart partisanship for the TOTAL vote in Hamilton County in 2020 was:

20.3% Dem
63.9% Rep

And partisanship for the EARLY vote ONLY in Hamilton County in 2020 was:

22.0% Rep
62.7% Rep

Maybe more interestingly, partisanship for the EARLY vote in Hamilton County in 2022 was:

38.1% Dem
46.0% Rep

So the early vote we have in 2024 is substantially more R than the early vote which Hamilton County had in 2022, but even despite that Harris is winning the early vote.

[kwabbit]

Taylor, KY is 88% in according to NYT. 77/21 Trump. 75/24 last time. Still a bit of MoE from the last 12%.

Looks like turnout is way down from 2020 if that's true?

Yeah this might be an error.

The percentages are by precinct so one precinct might just be bigger.

[RBH]

about a point swing towards Harris in Rowan Co KY (Morehead/Morehead State) from 60/39 to 59/40

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ThePoliticalHQ/status/1853948170998272506

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Love the reporting error on Washington Post that has Kennedy at 72% in Rush County, IN

[Zinneke]

Georgia: "who do you trust more to handle a crisis?"

Trump 51 / Harris 47

Biden approval: 41 approve, 58 disapprove

Both incredibly and understandably, people seem to have forgotten COVID and Trump's handling of it.

Many of Trump's voters do remember covid, and they remember that unlike many Dem governors (looking at you Newsom) he didn't impose never ending lockdowns.

Oh yeah no you're right. I actually think Trump made 2 strategic masterstrokes. The 1000 bucks and presenting himself as the anti-Fauci .

But he's still a terrible crisis actor

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I'm going to take a swing over by the Temple University precinct, see if I can't get myself on the broadcast tonight. I'll also take the opportunity to give you all some quality anecdotal reports.

Nice!

[Can't Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1853945993668203000
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1853945996511756338

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It pains me to say Trump has won IN and KY, not