Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

The 3,200 page report of the Mahon Tribunal, looking into payments to politicians particularly relating planning permissions, was published today. The Tribunal was set up in 1997.

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- The Irish Times


It seems the FF leadership is going to move to expel Ahern from the party.

The report also accuses FF Ministers in 2007/08 of effectively seeking to collapse the enquiry (in their efforts to defend Ahern). How, or if, FF deal with that will be interesting.

Unfortunately, it doesn't name names; the three names being mentioned most often in media dispatches are:

Dermot Ahern (then Minister for Justice who B. Ahern famously sent up every tree in north County Dublin looking for evidence of planning corruption, retired at last election claiming a bad back)
Dick "Cock" Roche (oleaginous former Minister for the Environment, humiliated at last election, although not before wasting people's time with a recount that would make no difference to the final result)
Willie O'Dea (walrus-moustachioed former Minister for Justice who was forced to resign for trying to slander a political opponent and who managed to get re-elected by dint of uber-clientelism).

[ObserverIE]

In an exclusive interview with tomorrow's Volkischer Beobachter Sunday Independent, Ahern decides to jump before he's pushed.

[ObserverIE]

So the entire statutory range of sizes for the Dail of 153 to 160 will be constitutional (4,588,252 / 30,000 = 152.94).  The constitutional range would be 153 to 229 (4,588,252 / 20,000 = 229.41).  Can a constituency have more than 30,000 people?

There has been a tolerance of about 8% from the national average in either direction allowed in the past. In the 80s, this would have produced some constituency averages under 20,000, so I don't suppose that a few constituency averages above 30,000 would be a problem.

[ObserverIE]

One possibility I didn't think of until after I had started to look at the Constituency Commission's report was to keep County Galway at 9 seats but, to make the large (and underpopulated slightly beyond the 5% benchmark) Galway East constituency smaller, to replace the existing 5-4 setup with three 3-seaters.  Counties Mayo and Roscommon could then have combined for 7 seats, a four-seat Mayo Constituency and a three-seat Roscommon-Mayo.

Of course, that totals to one more constituency than those three counties have in Thursday's proposal, so that seat would have had to come from somewhere else.  I thought I had an idea but I realized that I hadn't changed the total number of seats in that area (Laois, Offlay, Kildare, Tipperary).

With a three-seater in the west you'd either have to split Galway city or do some very odd things with north Connemara. A four-seater with Connemara/Iar Connacht, Galway city and its immediate eastern suburbs might work, with the rest of Galway east of the Corrib forming a second four-seater.

[ObserverIE]

The Labour Party has lost it's 5th Deputy since entering Government following the vote of the Chairman of the Parliamentary Party, Colm Keaveney (Galway E) against the budget measure to cut the respite care grant.

No danger to the Government majority, of course, but the slow fragmentation of the Labour parliamentary party amidst the context of unpromising opinion polls and continuing economic difficulty... well, oh dear.


Dáil Éireann
...

United Left	5
Independents	14
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

"United" Left should now be down to 4, after the Clonmel-based Workers' and Unemployed Action Group withdrew back in October, and one of the TDs of the two main components resigned from the group she belonged to (though not from the alliance as a whole). The two main components (the Irish franchises of the Committee for a Workers' International and the International Socialist Tendency) are, of course, circling each other like two tomcats at a barndance.

[ObserverIE]

I would now advise Oakvale to avert his eyes. The rest of you can take a deep breath and look at the rightmost column:



via Gavan Reilly of TheJournal.ie on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/295282647939309568

[ObserverIE]

Any poll about by-election in Meath East?

No candidates nor date yet so no.

[ObserverIE]

Amazing.

At this stage, I expect FF to be the largest party in the local elections next year. Not that that will be difficult.

FG are coming across as being as incompetent and ethically dodgy as FF, obsequious abroad while bullying at home, and only really caring about the wealthy; there was a row in the lead up to last December's budget where Labour wanted to raise payroll taxes (PRSI) on employees earning over €100K from 7% to 10% (self-employed already pay at this rate on their earnings over €100K) but FG were only willing to agree to this if all basic welfare payments - except for the old-age pension - were cut by 5%. A couple of FG TDs also performed solo runs on the property tax last month, complaining that their constituents in the wealthier areas of Dublin would be obliged to subsidise their social inferiors in rural and working-class areas.

FF generally made a (superficial) effort to look as if they wanted to spread the burden of adjustment more fairly, because they knew where their votes were. FG haven't bothered, I suspect because they were convinced that they were now in power for ever. They're in for a rude awakening.

[ObserverIE]

This is the worst country in the world.

Eh, it's not really. Not even close.

We don't have a Geert Wilders or a Jobbik. We have the Healy-Raes.

[ObserverIE]

So, basically, the other shoe (the blue one) has finally dropped.

The RedC poll tonight isn't as dramatic (28/21/19/11/21), but FG definitely seem to be back at the mid-to-high 20s support level that they've had for most of the period since 1987. Labour are also back at historic norms, but without the same likelihood of picking up transfers as previously.

[ObserverIE]

This is the worst country in the world.

Eh, it's not really. Not even close.

We don't have a Geert Wilders or a Jobbik. We have the Healy-Raes.

Well not literally, no - though it's funny you mention that since pretty much the only thing I'm thankful for in Irish politics is that we don't have any far-right parties and most of the disaffected vote that would go to them votes SF instead.

Our would-be Geert Wilders is on the left.

To give the Shinners credit, they've pretty consistently kept to an anti-racist line down here for the last decade (and I suspect that cost them a seat in Dublin South West in 2007, just as I suspect it cost Joe Higgins in Dublin West at that election).

The other likely source of potential immigrant-bashing outbursts are in government and so are inhibited from opening their blue-tinted gobs. Other outbursts are getting slapped down.

[ObserverIE]

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

[ObserverIE]

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

True but I think even now FF would have be at least 5 points ahead of FG to be in the race to be the larger party because of Labour transfers

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

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http://banda.ie/assets/files/pdf/J.4369%20Sunday%20Times%20Jan%202013%20Report.pdf

Hilarious highlight: the only party with a majority of supporters who think Éamon Gilmore is doing a good job is FG.

[ObserverIE]

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

I read that post and thought Jas was back.

Nah, just a shared Drumlin Belt cynicism.

Jas is back, though.

[ObserverIE]

Question for all you Irish posters - If Fine Gael is slightly to the right of Fianna Fáil (as most sources seem to say), why does the Labour Party always coalition with FG and never (?) with FF? Is it simply because of FF's dominance, or are there other reasons as well?

FF's dominance and (until the late 80s) its refusal to enter coalitions. Labour did provide minority support to the first FF government in 1932 but had the rug pulled from under it by an early election in 1933.

Labour finally entered government with FF in 1992 after an election in which it had made significant gains and both the main parties had suffered significant losses. It had initially entered talks with FG but these collapsed after FG insisted that the smaller economically liberal PDs were brought into government to curb any potential outbreaks of left-wingery. It then turned to FF who were grateful and surprised to get back into government and proved much more ideologically obliging. This coalition lasted for two more or less successful years until a row over a judicial appointment and supposed foot-dragging over child abuse cases caused the government to collapse in December 1994. In the meantime, by-elections meant that a coalition between FG, Labour and the small Democratic Left (ex-Moscow-line communists who had broken with their party in the aftermath of 1989 and moved towards Eurocommunism) now had a majority in the Dáil and a chastened Fine Gael then agreed to this arrangement.

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Economically, FG has moved significantly to the right of FF over the last few years (a reversion to type after a brief period of very dilute social democracy in the 80s). Its support base has always been stronger among the professional/managerial urban middle classes, their rural equivalents and larger farmers, and its policies have tended to reflect that. FF would traditionally have been stronger among lower-middle class and skilled manual workers and among smaller farmers in the west and north, so it tended to be more trade union-friendly and more supportive of welfare measures than FG. However, it derived a lot of funding from domestic big business (construction, food processing, etc.) and shaped its policies to be, em, friendly towards those sectors. FF embraced austerity because it was forced to; the newer FGers tend to believe in its innate benefits in reminding the lower orders of their place.

On European issues and foreign policy, FG has tended to be both more uncritically/obsequiously pro-European and Anglophile, which may present it with dilemmas over the next few years. On language/cultural issues, FF tends to be more culturally nationalist and (at least verbally) stronger on reunification. On law and order, FG has more of an authoritarian streak whereas FF tends towards the lackadaisical (hello, Danny Healy-Rae). On social/religious issues, both parties have smallish secularist wings but the parties both tend to be more socially conservative, most notably on abortion, where the spread of opinion in Ireland tends to be much more conservative than in most European countries.

[ObserverIE]

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

*cough*

Ipsos MRBI in tomorrow's Irish Times (traditionally the most accurate pollster, but carried out on Monday and Tuesday - before the announcement of the promissory note deal yesterday):

FF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (-6)
Ind/Oth 20 (+6)
SF 18 (-2)
Lab 10 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)

Undecided is at a record high of 34%.

I would expect the promissory note deal to boost FG for a while, but the gains in the short term are not as big as the initial hype would have led people to believe (€0.7bn next year and €0.5bn in 2015).

Full-scale meltdown going on over at Crank Central politics.ie as the Blueshirt keyboard-warriors demand that shock and awe be unleashed upon an ungrateful electorate.

[ObserverIE]

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

*cough*

Ipsos MRBI in tomorrow's Irish Times (traditionally the most accurate pollster, but carried out on Monday and Tuesday - before the announcement of the promissory note deal yesterday):

FF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (-6)
Ind/Oth 20 (+6)
SF 18 (-2)
Lab 10 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)

How would the Ind/Other be split up in an actual election?

My instinct is that a lot of the "Independent/Other" vote represents people who are likely to vote but who can't easily stomach any of the four main parties (arrogant FG, two-faced Labour, incompetent FF, ex-terrorist SF). Where it would go to on the day would depend on which smaller parties or credible independents were on the ballot paper at an election.

[ObserverIE]

Wish they'd separate out those others.

The only other parties qua parties amongst the "others" are the Socialist Party and the other components of the faction-ridden and fisiparous "United" Left Alliance. The only figures that I've seen in polls have been 1% or so for the SP.

Even apart from the "ugh" factor towards the four main parties that I mentioned above, most independents by their nature are only standing in one constituency and cover the entire political spectrum. The more prominent ones vary from populist economic-right (Ross), competent centrist (Donnelly), left-libertarian (Flanagan, Wallace), orthodox left social democrats (Murphy), populist left republicans (Pringle) to populist Trotskyists (Daly, Collins). And those are the ones with a coherent ideology; you also have the Mattie McGraths, Michael Healy-Raes and Michael Lowrys. In addition, you have the dissident Labour TDs who have lost the whip and who might not be readmitted to the Titanic Labour Party in time for the election, the most prominent of whom are Róisín Shortall and Colm Keaveney.

In short, trying to disaggregate "others" is a hopeless task.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for tomorrow's Sunday Independent (changes since corresponding poll last May):

FF 27 (+10)
FG 25 (-11)
SF 20 (-)
Lab 13 (+1)
GP 1 (-)
ULA 1 (-)
Ind/Oth 14 (-)

This was taken over a week-long interval, with the first day of polling taking place on the day of  the announcement of the liquidation of IBRC and the remaining days including the mainly positive coverage of the promissory note deal.

Not good at all for FG. Really not good.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for tomorrow's Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (-)
FF 26 (+5)
SF 16 (-3)
Ind/Oth 15 (-3)
Lab 12 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SP 1 (-)

Again the prom note bounce fails to materialise; this government has overspun minor matters too often to be given any credit when something - no matter how small - is achieved.

RedC also adjust their figures for both likelihood to vote and on what party you voted for last time - don't knows get allocated to their last parties at a discount of 50% - which has the effect of dampening gains or losses from the last election.

[ObserverIE]

Labour probably would rather (looking back) have won 8 fewer seats in the last election and Fine Gael 8 more (so they would have had a majority).  Or, say, 12 seats from Labour to FG, so the latter would have had a fairly stable starting majority of 87-78 after Seán Barrett replaced Séamus Kirk as Ceann Comhairle.  Labour would still have been five seats over Fianna Fáil to start with (after Séamus Kirk became a regular Fianna Fáil TD again) and would have been the official opposition.

After the hype of "Gilmore for Taoiseach", ending up in the mid- to high 20s would probably have been a crushing blow in terms of morale, regardless of whether they were ahead of Fianna Fáil or not.

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Sadly, at this stage it's all too easy to imagine Emmet Stagg as a Fine Gael TD.

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Fine Gael getting an extra few seats and a "Tallaght strategy" toleration agreement from FF would probably have been the best long-term outcome for Labour, but there are too many sixtysomething ex-lefties who wanted to be back in power at just about any cost.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown IMS for tomorrow's Sunday Independent, taken from 16-28 Feb:

FG 24 (-1)
FF 23 (-4)
Ind/Oth 22 (+6)
SF 21 (+1)
Lab 11 (-2)

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown IMS for tomorrow's Sunday Independent:

FF 29 (+6)
FG 25 (+1)
SF 20 (-1)
Ind/Oth 17 (-5)
Lab 9 (-2)

[ObserverIE]

It's unfortunately still a minority although polls show a solid 40ish% are "pro-choice"

My recollection is that the numbers varied from the high 20s to the high 30s depending on what way the question was phrased.

It's not too surprising in such a religious country.

Calling modern Ireland a religious country really kind of misses the mark these days

By European standards it still is a religious country; estimates of regular church attendance (couple of times a month or more often) are in the mid- to high 40s. The recent European Social Studies survey gave weekly church attendance at 53% but that estimate is definitely on the high side.

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Although those same "generations of Catholic indoctrination" seem to have been totally ineffectual where views on gay marriage are concerned.

[ObserverIE]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

At least you're spared having to vote for them.