Ireland General Discussion

[Kevinstat]

What are the odds of a new Dial election being held in 2008 now that there will be a new Taoiseach?  In 2009?  When will the likely public desire not to have an election so soon after the last one give in to a desire to have their Taoiseach go before them and seek his own mandate?  (Not that its much of a mandate when neither your party nor the combined existing coalition parties win a majority of seats, but you get my point.)  Jas says that Cowen has (until the announcement of Ahern's impending resignation, at least) had "a relatively low profile with the general public," so perhaps the situation is different from in Great Britain where voters in 2005 likely had a good idea they were going to get Gordon Brown at least for the end of his party's mandate if the voted for Labour and unofficially for Tony Blair (and that fact may have helped Labour at that time).  But Jas and the horseowning Protestant (are you really a Protestant, and if so are you ancestrally Protestant along some line or did you convert to Protestantism - you must still be a small percentage of the "southern" Irish population, and you don't live in Ulster like Jas, although those counties may not be any more Protestant than the rest of the Republic on average) could better speculate on when a new election is likely. 

[Kevinstat]

RIP.

Deserves an historical allocade for that Boland speech.

Do you have any links which describe the speech and the historical context?

[Kevinstat]

The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

Unless the sitting CC doesn't stand for reelection to the Dáil.

Is there any indication that O'Donoghue will retire at the next election (even if the Dáil dissolved soon and while he was still CC and he could have another term (which would seem to be for as long as Fine Gael and Labour can get along) by snapping his fingers)?  Or that he will resign from the Dáil at the same time as he resigns as Ceann Comhairle if that happens before the Dáil dissolves?  Or is this expenses scandal of John O'Donoghue, Ceann Comhairle and formerly John O'Donoughue, Minister of Arts, Sport and Tourism one that would be a comparitively minor blemish on John O'Donoughue, rank and file TD, or of a degree such that he might struggle to get reelected if he were not the outgoing CC but, if he is the Ceann Comhairle at the time of dissolution or until the next election if it isn't imminent, he could remain as a TD without being a Rod Blagojevich (not so much in being impeached and convicted/expelled from the Dáil but in his not resigning creating a scandal in itself)?  Would O'Donoghue want to remain in the Dáil with whatever his future prospects there are?

If O'Donohue resigns (at least as Ceann Comhairle) before the Dáil dissolves, how soon would a new CC be elected?  Any ideas as to whom that might be?  How much would electoral math be a factor in who is elected?

That's a lot of questions I know (I got on a roll), but I'd appreeciate whatever answers or educated guesses you (Jas) or anyone else (like Gully Foyle) could give me.

[Kevinstat]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

[Kevinstat]

As I understand it, under the standing orders of the Dáil, on a CC vacancy arising, the Leas-Ceann Comhairle (Deputy CC, currently Brendan Howlin [Lab-Wexford]) shall preside until a date is set for the election of a new CC. So there's little definitive there as to timing.

Would Howlin be automatically returned if the Dáil were dissolved between O'Donoghue's resignation as CC and the election of a new CC?  That would only likely have come up if O'Donohue had resigned at CC before today's Green Party convention and that convention either failed to accept (by the required 2/3 vote) the motion to remain in Government on the basis of the new program or passed (by the same 2/3 vote) the motion opposing a bailout of some sorts that I'm too lazy to look up now.  If neither happens (or happened) at today's convention, I imagine the Government will survive long enough for a new Ceann Comhairle (possibly the same as the "interim CC" as you say) to be elected.  Although you never know.

[Kevinstat]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

...
Other questions:

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

An interesting dilemna for future commissions will be the constitutional restrictions of TD's representing between 20,000 and 30,000 persons.  When the Dail was set at the current size of 166 TD's in 1980 it was right at the lower limit.   Now, it is at 25,541 per TD; and the constitutional limit is 141 to 211 TD's (the statutory limit was 164 to 168).  But going forward 15 to 20 years the constitutional limit could be reached, and future commissions could find themselves having to add a dozen TD's at a time, and making major changes even if population growth were uniform.

Does that answer your question?

[Kevinstat]

So, then, what are the cahnces of an election being called in the next week?

No more likely now than any other week (which I wouldn't say is nil with the Government's slim majority and its unpopularity, but it definitely dodged the main bullet this past week and today).

From RTÉ News (with [bracketed information] and italics added by me):

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[Kevinstat]

So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

[Kevinstat]

Numbers for FF, FG and Labour are identical to where they were for the first MRBI poll of last year.

Well, that's kind of good news for FF, I guess, considering they were doing worse (significantly worse in one poll I remember seeing) than 22% at times last year.

Jas and Gully Foyle,

What does your gut tell you about (26 county) Irish politics in 2010?  Will it be quieter than 2009, with Fianna Fáil not having to worry much about the government falling and gaining some ground in the polls (perhaps still losing the Donegal SW by-election but getting closer to where they could gain it (or at least have Fine Gael lose it to Sinn Féin) in the next general election)?  Or will 2010 be much like 2009, with credible speculation on the government falling at least once and Fianna Fáil's numbers staing where they are or dipping even lower, but with the goverment hanging on into 2011?  Or will the Fianna Fáil-Green-Mary Harney government (which I know has had the support of other independents including the other ex-PD TD) finally fall, and if it does will there be an election or will the government be replaced without an election by a Fine Gael-Labour government including of supported by the Greens and also supported by most Independent TDs?  (I know Fine Gael and Labour would at present much prefer a new election but someone pointed out that that would not be palatable to the Greens and most Independents in the Dáil.)

[Kevinstat]

Looking over some posts early in this thread (which I didn't start looking at until 2008 at the earliest)...

Some more comments on the Dáil constituency changes...
...
It should be noted though that these constituency changes might never see an election. Though they will almost certainly pass into law without amendment, as is the norm, the next Census is due out before the next election and due to judgments handed down earlier this year, it's entirely possible that there will have to be a constituency re-draw before another election. Something the politicans will probably deem undesirable. It's been a while since a Dáil hasn't lasted a full term (the last 3 effectively have) and given the size and nature of the current government, there should be the stability there to last a full term, however the prospect of unknown boundary changes close to a general election might be enough to provoke a slightly earlier election than normal.

When is the next census in the Republic of Ireland?  Does it still look like there might never be an election held under the boundaries drawn up in 2007 (were they passed into law without amendment, by the way?) if the current Dáil runs full-term?  Or have things changed legally since then or been revealed over time not to be what you then thought they might be (like how soon after a census new boundaries have to be drawn)?

[Kevinstat]

Any rough idea when the by-election to replace Lee will be held?  I know the party that last held the seat is generally given descretion over when the by-election is called, although I know someone in the opposition unsuccessfully moved the writ in Dublin South to replace Seamus Brennan after Fianna Fáil had taken forever to move it themselves.  Will Fine Gael want the by-election called quickly to bring the government's majority back down by 1?  Or will they want to wait to move the writ until they're in a better position to be competitive in the by-election vis-a-vis Labour, and how long would they be willing to wait if that doesn't happen?

Also, any news on the pending by-election in Donegal SW?

[Kevinstat]

[Cullen's] resignation of his Dáil seat is a surprise and quite significant - narrowing the Government majority and bringing on another unwinable by-election.

I imagine that by-election will also not be held until "the back end of the year" at the earliest, but would you care to try and handicap that by-election this far out.  Also, how about those in Donegal SW and Dublin S?  You said on January 31 that you figured Fine Gael would be most likely to take that seat (or more likely than Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil which are the only other two parties of note that seem to exist in that area, although there are always Independent candidates), but that was before George Lee's embarrassing (for Fine Gael at least) resignation from both Fine Gael and the Dáil.  Labour would seem like the favorites (heavy favorites") in Dublin South, while Donegal SW would be an FG-SF battle which might hinge on whether Fine Gael has pulled itself back together by then.  The situation in Waterford would seem to be similar to that in Donegal SW except (hold on before you freek out) replace SF with Labour.  But I'd be interested in hearing your analysis.  Thanks.

[Kevinstat]

Bump.  Any official (or otherwise credible) word on when the by-elections in Donegal South West, Dublin South and Waterford will be?  Or has Brian Cowan decided to hold a snap election so he can lead the Fianna Fáil majority government that would surely result? 

[Kevinstat]

Any idea if Richard Bruton will immediately move the writ of the Dublin South by-election if he becomes Fine Gael leader?

[Kevinstat]

What would our forum Irish experts peg as the likelihood that the High Court forces the Government to call an election in Donegal South-West in the case being heard in October?  If the Government loses that case, what would the likely impact be on the scheduling of by-elections to fill the other two current vacancies?

Also, what was the aftermath after the dust settled from the vote on the stag hunting bill that you described in June? ElectionsIreland.org and Wikipedia differ on who lost their party whip as a result of that vote.

[Kevinstat]

So Jas, how bad for Cowan and Fianna Fáil is Cowan's recent interview gaffe?  (I'm not very clear on what happened, as I don't have the media player needed to play the interview in the Morning Ireland link, and I was too lazy to go through the steps in adding it.)  And is talk in Fine Gael circles (somewhat echoed by Labour) of a general election being called before Christmas wishful thinking or is there a more credible chance of the government falling this fall/early winter than you thought there was earlier in the year?

Assuming a general election isn't called before then, are there any new hints on the part of the government as when the by-elections to fill the three current Dail vacancies will be held?  And might Fine Gael want to go ahead and move the writ for Dublin South so trim the government majority by one?  (Did George Lee resign from Fine Gael before resigning as a TD, and if so would that give the government an excuse to go against custom and oppose a Fine Gael motion for a writ in Dublin South?)

[Kevinstat]

Stupid question probably, but could George Lee withdraw his resignation from the Dáil and be seated if he wanted to?  Or force the government to either seat him or approve a writ for a prompt by-election?

If the answer to both questions is no, which I expect it is, how does he likely feel about his decision to resign his seat (both his former constituents not having full representation and the government's now even narrower majority than when he left being one member larger than it would otherwise be)?  What is he up to now anyway?

[Kevinstat]

It's been a while since anyone posted on this thread.  Could someone "paint a picture" of what's going on?

While I am curious about the incident covered in the article linked to above, and what is the highest public office held by a member of the Éirígí party and if candidates run with that designation below their name (or are party names even listed on the ballot? even for local concils?), I'm also curious about what's going on in (26 county) Irish politics in general.  The whole talk of "talks" about the economy that started with a Green Party initiative seemingly taken without consulting Cowan is interesting, but I think Jas could summarize what has happened so far better than I could.

[Kevinstat]

Wow, things have heated up in (ROI) Irish politics all of a sudden!

McDaid lost the FF whip in 2008 abstaining on a vote opposing the Government’s abandonment of the cervical cancer vaccine programme, decrying the move as a false economy. He’s been on record as favouring a General Election for some time.

How did he vote on the Fine Gael motions for writs for the then-three vacant seats a couple/few months ago?  Also Michael Lowry, who has (iirc) made similar statements regarding a General Election?  If they both voted no on all those writs and the earlier SF motion for a writ in Donegal SW, how does one reconcile that with their desire for a prompt General Election that would be more likely if difficult/impossible for the government to win by-elections were held or were going to be held because of a sucessfully moved writ?

[Kevinstat]

I know you weren't expecting the ruling to go this way when I asked you earlier in the year.  Was there any time before the ruling came out today that you sensed it going the way it did, or was it a complete surprise?

[Kevinstat]

Why did Fine Gael lose ground (albiet only 2%) in DSW from 2002 to 2007?  Much of the Fianna Fáil gain could have been independent voters continuing to "come home" from 1997.  Was the count tight down the stretch between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin for the final seat there in 2007?

[Kevinstat]

As to the market odds, according to local press:
Doherty (SF)       2/7
O’Neill (FG)         11/4
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 6/1
McBrearty (Lab) 13/2
Pringle (i)           12/1

Those odds (assuming someone with a 75% chance of victory would have odds of 1/3 and someone with a 10% chance of victory would have odds of 9/1), add up to 139.8% (77.8% for Doherty (SF), 26.7% for O’Neill (FG), 14.3% for Ó Domhnaill (FF), 13.3% for McBrearty (Lab) and 7.7% for Pringle (i)).  Is the vig built into those odds (which would make it a vig of about 28.4% (39.8% divided by 139.8%))?  Even if the odds for the candidates other than Doherty are from when Doherty's odds were only 4/6 before the High Court decision, those odds would have added up to 122.0% (an 18.0% vig).  Were the odds-makers just sloppy (or deliberately crafty) - is there an additional vig in Paddy Power?

Also, were these odds made before Sweeney filed?  Or would the betting odds against her winning be something on the order of... 1/0?  

[Kevinstat]

That must be 13:1 (not 13:8 ) for Ó Domhnaill (FF).  That brings the percentages without the Green candidate to 101.3%, pretty close when you're dealing with integer fractions of the size used.  4:9 (a fraction of 9/13) and 13:8 (8/21) alone add up to 107.3%.

[Kevinstat]

The Greens are precipitating a General Election for January.

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February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

How do those two things square?  And why wouldn't a general election after the enactment of the new budget not be earlier than February?  How long does it take to pass a budget, assuming there are enough votes to do so (big if now, I know)?

[Kevinstat]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

I've decided to use the singular form of that curse as my username through this Thanksgiving weekend (with an astirisk to get it the censor).