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ObserverIE
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« Reply #750 on: January 27, 2013, 08:48:23 AM »

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #751 on: January 27, 2013, 08:52:30 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 08:55:27 AM by Japhy Ryder »

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

True but I think even now FF would have be at least 5 points ahead of FG to be in the race to be the larger party because of Labour transfers and I think if it were the case that FG-FF was the only realistic option (and FG would prefer to coalition with FF than with even more undermeschen of SF) the desire for warm, ministerial chairs would soon overcome all apprehensions that may exist.

Is there a regional breakdown of the poll btw?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #752 on: January 27, 2013, 09:17:47 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 09:23:39 AM by ObserverIE »

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

True but I think even now FF would have be at least 5 points ahead of FG to be in the race to be the larger party because of Labour transfers

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

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http://banda.ie/assets/files/pdf/J.4369%20Sunday%20Times%20Jan%202013%20Report.pdf

Hilarious highlight: the only party with a majority of supporters who think Éamon Gilmore is doing a good job is FG.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #753 on: January 27, 2013, 09:27:28 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 09:47:35 AM by Japhy Ryder »

Thanks.

I didn't see the regional overview but I did try a general overview and calculation (or to be more blunt, I guessed) and I ended up with: FF 42 FG 55 LAB 19 SF 24 OTH 18 (I calculated others by assuming that all independents that ran in 2011 would run again, obviously not realistic but predicting where independents will form is complete waste of effort. It could be anywhere though I'm sure if an election were held tomorrow more than 18 - and I included the ex-ULA in my figures and had all but Boyd Barrett re-elected - and possibly far more would enter the Dáil.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #754 on: January 27, 2013, 09:41:05 AM »

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.
I read that post and thought Jas was back.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #755 on: January 27, 2013, 09:56:49 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 10:09:51 AM by ObserverIE »

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.
I read that post and thought Jas was back.

Nah, just a shared Drumlin Belt cynicism.

Jas is back, though.
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Lurker
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« Reply #756 on: January 27, 2013, 11:38:10 AM »

Question for all you Irish posters - If Fine Gael is slightly to the right of Fianna Fáil (as most sources seem to say), why does the Labour Party always coalition with FG and never (?) with FF? Is it simply because of FF's dominance, or are there other reasons as well?

Also, what are the political/ideological dividing lines between FF and FG nowadays?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #757 on: January 27, 2013, 12:11:56 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2013, 12:21:02 PM by ObserverIE »

Question for all you Irish posters - If Fine Gael is slightly to the right of Fianna Fáil (as most sources seem to say), why does the Labour Party always coalition with FG and never (?) with FF? Is it simply because of FF's dominance, or are there other reasons as well?

FF's dominance and (until the late 80s) its refusal to enter coalitions. Labour did provide minority support to the first FF government in 1932 but had the rug pulled from under it by an early election in 1933.

Labour finally entered government with FF in 1992 after an election in which it had made significant gains and both the main parties had suffered significant losses. It had initially entered talks with FG but these collapsed after FG insisted that the smaller economically liberal PDs were brought into government to curb any potential outbreaks of left-wingery. It then turned to FF who were grateful and surprised to get back into government and proved much more ideologically obliging. This coalition lasted for two more or less successful years until a row over a judicial appointment and supposed foot-dragging over child abuse cases caused the government to collapse in December 1994. In the meantime, by-elections meant that a coalition between FG, Labour and the small Democratic Left (ex-Moscow-line communists who had broken with their party in the aftermath of 1989 and moved towards Eurocommunism) now had a majority in the Dáil and a chastened Fine Gael then agreed to this arrangement.

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Economically, FG has moved significantly to the right of FF over the last few years (a reversion to type after a brief period of very dilute social democracy in the 80s). Its support base has always been stronger among the professional/managerial urban middle classes, their rural equivalents and larger farmers, and its policies have tended to reflect that. FF would traditionally have been stronger among lower-middle class and skilled manual workers and among smaller farmers in the west and north, so it tended to be more trade union-friendly and more supportive of welfare measures than FG. However, it derived a lot of funding from domestic big business (construction, food processing, etc.) and shaped its policies to be, em, friendly towards those sectors. FF embraced austerity because it was forced to; the newer FGers tend to believe in its innate benefits in reminding the lower orders of their place.

On European issues and foreign policy, FG has tended to be both more uncritically/obsequiously pro-European and Anglophile, which may present it with dilemmas over the next few years. On language/cultural issues, FF tends to be more culturally nationalist and (at least verbally) stronger on reunification. On law and order, FG has more of an authoritarian streak whereas FF tends towards the lackadaisical (hello, Danny Healy-Rae). On social/religious issues, both parties have smallish secularist wings but the parties both tend to be more socially conservative, most notably on abortion, where the spread of opinion in Ireland tends to be much more conservative than in most European countries.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #758 on: February 08, 2013, 06:02:41 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2013, 08:06:20 PM by ObserverIE »

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

*cough*

Ipsos MRBI in tomorrow's Irish Times (traditionally the most accurate pollster, but carried out on Monday and Tuesday - before the announcement of the promissory note deal yesterday):

FF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (-6)
Ind/Oth 20 (+6)
SF 18 (-2)
Lab 10 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)

Undecided is at a record high of 34%.

I would expect the promissory note deal to boost FG for a while, but the gains in the short term are not as big as the initial hype would have led people to believe (€0.7bn next year and €0.5bn in 2015).

Full-scale meltdown going on over at Crank Central politics.ie as the Blueshirt keyboard-warriors demand that shock and awe be unleashed upon an ungrateful electorate.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #759 on: February 08, 2013, 10:03:34 PM »

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Leftbehind
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« Reply #760 on: February 09, 2013, 08:52:50 AM »

Wish they'd separate out those others.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #761 on: February 09, 2013, 08:55:46 AM »

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

*cough*

Ipsos MRBI in tomorrow's Irish Times (traditionally the most accurate pollster, but carried out on Monday and Tuesday - before the announcement of the promissory note deal yesterday):

FF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (-6)
Ind/Oth 20 (+6)
SF 18 (-2)
Lab 10 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)

How would the Ind/Other be split up in an actual election?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #762 on: February 09, 2013, 02:15:14 PM »

At the rate things are going I wouldn't rule that out at all.

*cough*

Ipsos MRBI in tomorrow's Irish Times (traditionally the most accurate pollster, but carried out on Monday and Tuesday - before the announcement of the promissory note deal yesterday):

FF 26 (+5)
FG 25 (-6)
Ind/Oth 20 (+6)
SF 18 (-2)
Lab 10 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)

How would the Ind/Other be split up in an actual election?

My instinct is that a lot of the "Independent/Other" vote represents people who are likely to vote but who can't easily stomach any of the four main parties (arrogant FG, two-faced Labour, incompetent FF, ex-terrorist SF). Where it would go to on the day would depend on which smaller parties or credible independents were on the ballot paper at an election.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #763 on: February 09, 2013, 02:16:53 PM »

Even from yesterday's IRC chat, I still can't figure out why anyone would vote for Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. It's like an Evan Bayh/Jon Huntsman ticket except even more moderate and platitude-y.
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afleitch
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« Reply #764 on: February 09, 2013, 03:00:04 PM »

At least Irish voters are not as stupid as Scottish ones where until a few years ago, the Labour candidate could take a dump on your doorstep and still win your vote.
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patrick1
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« Reply #765 on: February 09, 2013, 04:09:10 PM »

At least Irish voters are not as stupid as Scottish ones where until a few years ago, the Labour candidate could take a dump on your doorstep and still win your vote.

Official Ireland has taken on a crap not only on the stoop but directly on the voters and their progeny.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #766 on: February 10, 2013, 06:07:59 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2013, 06:19:25 PM by ObserverIE »

Wish they'd separate out those others.

The only other parties qua parties amongst the "others" are the Socialist Party and the other components of the faction-ridden and fisiparous "United" Left Alliance. The only figures that I've seen in polls have been 1% or so for the SP.

Even apart from the "ugh" factor towards the four main parties that I mentioned above, most independents by their nature are only standing in one constituency and cover the entire political spectrum. The more prominent ones vary from populist economic-right (Ross), competent centrist (Donnelly), left-libertarian (Flanagan, Wallace), orthodox left social democrats (Murphy), populist left republicans (Pringle) to populist Trotskyists (Daly, Collins). And those are the ones with a coherent ideology; you also have the Mattie McGraths, Michael Healy-Raes and Michael Lowrys. In addition, you have the dissident Labour TDs who have lost the whip and who might not be readmitted to the Titanic Labour Party in time for the election, the most prominent of whom are Róisín Shortall and Colm Keaveney.

In short, trying to disaggregate "others" is a hopeless task.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #767 on: February 16, 2013, 01:22:58 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2013, 11:10:09 AM by ObserverIE »

Millward Brown/IMS for tomorrow's Sunday Independent (changes since corresponding poll last May):

FF 27 (+10)
FG 25 (-11)
SF 20 (-)
Lab 13 (+1)
GP 1 (-)
ULA 1 (-)
Ind/Oth 14 (-)

This was taken over a week-long interval, with the first day of polling taking place on the day of  the announcement of the liquidation of IBRC and the remaining days including the mainly positive coverage of the promissory note deal.

Not good at all for FG. Really not good.
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Benj
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« Reply #768 on: February 20, 2013, 11:38:12 AM »

At least Irish voters are not as stupid as Scottish ones where until a few years ago, the Labour candidate could take a dump on your doorstep and still win your vote.

That's pretty much what Fianna Fail does on a daily basis. Only difference is that they lost government... and are now going to be put back in it without having changed anything that was wrong with the party.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #769 on: February 23, 2013, 02:01:11 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2013, 01:54:07 PM by ObserverIE »

RedC for tomorrow's Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (-)
FF 26 (+5)
SF 16 (-3)
Ind/Oth 15 (-3)
Lab 12 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SP 1 (-)

Again the prom note bounce fails to materialise; this government has overspun minor matters too often to be given any credit when something - no matter how small - is achieved.

RedC also adjust their figures for both likelihood to vote and on what party you voted for last time - don't knows get allocated to their last parties at a discount of 50% - which has the effect of dampening gains or losses from the last election.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #770 on: February 23, 2013, 03:27:20 PM »

Labour probably would rather (looking back) have won 8 fewer seats in the last election and Fine Gael 8 more (so they would have had a majority).  Or, say, 12 seats from Labour to FG, so the latter would have had a fairly stable starting majority of 87-78 after Seán Barrett replaced Séamus Kirk as Ceann Comhairle.  Labour would still have been five seats over Fianna Fáil to start with (after Séamus Kirk became a regular Fianna Fáil TD again) and would have been the official opposition.

I wonder if their was any discussion of having say 12 older TDs (who might be ready to retire at the next election) bolt and join Fine Gael so that Labour would not be in the position they're in.  Imagine Emmett Stagg as a Fine Gael TD!  That probably wouldn't have worked well.  Better would probably have been to let Fine Gael lead a minority government, voting with them on some issues and letting other TDs keep them afloat at other times.  The whole thing about a government commanding majority support of the Dáil (as opposed to the American system where the executive and legislative branches are separate and the House Speaker's or Senate Majority Leader's party doesn't have to win every vote in that chamber to remain the party in power (in that chamber)) makes such a "flexible coalition" government difficult though.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #771 on: February 23, 2013, 06:16:10 PM »

Labour probably would rather (looking back) have won 8 fewer seats in the last election and Fine Gael 8 more (so they would have had a majority).  Or, say, 12 seats from Labour to FG, so the latter would have had a fairly stable starting majority of 87-78 after Seán Barrett replaced Séamus Kirk as Ceann Comhairle.  Labour would still have been five seats over Fianna Fáil to start with (after Séamus Kirk became a regular Fianna Fáil TD again) and would have been the official opposition.

After the hype of "Gilmore for Taoiseach", ending up in the mid- to high 20s would probably have been a crushing blow in terms of morale, regardless of whether they were ahead of Fianna Fáil or not.

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Sadly, at this stage it's all too easy to imagine Emmet Stagg as a Fine Gael TD.

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Fine Gael getting an extra few seats and a "Tallaght strategy" toleration agreement from FF would probably have been the best long-term outcome for Labour, but there are too many sixtysomething ex-lefties who wanted to be back in power at just about any cost.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #772 on: February 23, 2013, 06:28:13 PM »

Unfortunately you also wouldn't be able to rule out the possibility of making a total fyck up of leading the opposition.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #773 on: March 02, 2013, 01:18:27 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2013, 01:34:53 PM by ObserverIE »

Millward Brown IMS for tomorrow's Sunday Independent, taken from 16-28 Feb:

FG 24 (-1)
FF 23 (-4)
Ind/Oth 22 (+6)
SF 21 (+1)
Lab 11 (-2)
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Oakvale
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« Reply #774 on: March 02, 2013, 04:04:34 PM »

It says a lot about the atrocious state of Irish politics that I'm actually reasonably happy with the latest poll, in context.
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