Ireland General Discussion

[minionofmidas]

Poor Brian Cowen. He looks the part of "useless gobshite"... which is almost a perverse incentive to root for him.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I take it that the paper will not be endorsing Fianna FAIL in the election?

The current level of gombeenism, incompetence and general gobsh**te-ery is hardly unusual in the context of Irish history and of Fianna Fail governments in particular. What is unprecedented though is the way that is so consistently exposed and to the ridiculous degree it has been exposed over the last two to three years.

[Kevinstat]

The Greens are precipitating a General Election for January.

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February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

How do those two things square?  And why wouldn't a general election after the enactment of the new budget not be earlier than February?  How long does it take to pass a budget, assuming there are enough votes to do so (big if now, I know)?

[Јas]

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February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

How do those two things square?

They square by getting the Greens to cave.

And why wouldn't a general election after the enactment of the new budget not be earlier than February?  How long does it take to pass a budget, assuming there are enough votes to do so (big if now, I know)?

Though the budget is presented in December, very, very little of it comes into law straight away. The rest has to go through the general legislative process of committees and so forth which takes considerable time. Last year’s wasn’t finally passed until March.

[Јas]

Yesterday's headlines...

[Јas]

This afternoon the Government published it’s (I presume IMF-approved) 4 Year Plan on fiscal adjustments. It targets a €15bn adjustment between 2011-14 (which is pretty much the size of the adjustment that has been made 2008-10). €6bn is targeted for the upcoming budget.

Cuts across all departmental expenditure. Notable reductions in social welfare, minimum wage, public sector pay and pensions, contribution to higher education all cited. Increases to income taxes, VAT, water charges, property taxes all there as well as closing off many tax credits and such.

Fun.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2010/nov/24/ireland-four-year-fiscal-plan-bailout-live-blog

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Yet another country exploiting the financial crisis to move their economy closer to feudalism, punishing the victims hurt most by the crisis and protecting the criminals who caused it.

[You kip if you want to...]

The world needs more politicians like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqx4E5tq1Bo

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Echos of UK Labour, circa June 2009... only a lot more drastic.

[Silent Hunter]

Echos of UK Labour, circa June 2009... only a lot more drastic.

I see your papers are pretty much the same as ours; just a tad more sweary...

[Kevinstat]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

I've decided to use the singular form of that curse as my username through this Thanksgiving weekend (with an astirisk to get it the censor).

[Kevinstat]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

I've decided to use the singular form of that curse as my username through this Thanksgiving weekend (with an astirisk to get it the censor).

Okay, I couldn't stand having all of my contributions (except from quotes in others' or my own posts) being under the name Useless Gobsh*te, so I'm going back to my regular username.

[Јas]

Today is by-election day in Donegal SW.

Turnout expected to be low (the by-election having been made quasi-redundant what with the General Election effectively in the offing). Turnout there in the last General was 66%.

Counting begins tomorrow morning at 9, result should be in by late afternoon. If the media/pollsters are correct and Doherty is well ahead - then we should have a fair indication of that by late morning.

[Јas]

Some suggestion in the press today that both Healy-Rae and Lowry might in fact vote for the budget (which would restore to the Government a notional 3 vote majority 82-79 [at least until the by-election result is in]).

[minionofmidas]

I'll take over from Kevin.

[Kevinstat]

I'll take over from Kevin.

Cool.

[Јas]

Counting in Donegal SW begins in an hour.

Only solid info at the moment is that the islands (voted on Monday) had a turnout of 43%.


Rumours though of an internal party (Labour) exit poll; liable to be rubbish of course, but hey, what else is there to report...
Doherty (SF) 33%
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 21%
McBrearty (L) 19%
O'Neill (FG) 18%
Pringle (i) 8%
Sweeney (i) 1%

While Doherty would still be favoured on such a return - such numbers could be good enough for McBrearty to sneak it, but then maybe that's exactly what a rumoured Labour exit poll would show.

[Јas]

Meanwhile, some more amusement...

[Јas]

Paddy Power has decided to pay out on a Doherty win.

[Јas]

Early estimate at turnout 50-55%

Early boxes (21%) indicate...
34% Doherty
25% O'Neill
17% Ó Domhnaill
13% Pringle
10% McBrearty
  1% Sweeney

[Јas]

72% of boxes

40% Doherty (SF)
21% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
19% O'Neill (FG)
10% Pringle (i)
10% McBrearty (L)

Doherty uncatchable if these sorts of numbers hold up.

[Јas]

FG represntative on local radio in Donegal concedes that Doherty will win.

88% of boxes...

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.0% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.3% O'Neill (FG)
10.4% McBrearty (L)
10.3% Pringle (i)

[Јas]

Complete Tally

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.2% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.4% O'Neill (FG)
10.2% McBrearty (L)
10.1% Pringle (i)

Might not even need to go to a 2-person count.

[Јas]

Looks like the one constituency poll wasn't far off the mark.

[Јas]

Given these sorts of numbers, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG seems to be the most likely result from DSW in the upcoming General.

[Јas]

Donegal South West By-Election

Turnout: 56.03% (34,908)

Spoiled Votes: 484
Total Valid Poll: 34,424

			Change
	Count 1		on GE07
Doherty (SF)	13,719	39.9%	(+18.7%)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)	7,344	21.3%	(- 29.2%)
O'Neill (FG)	6,424	18.7%	(-   4.3%)
Pringle (i)	3,438	10.0%
McBrearty (L)	3,366	9.8%	(+  7.0%)
Sweeney (i)	133	0.4%

Sweeney eliminated - second count should be along post-haste.

SF on course for first by-election win since 1925.
FF + FG + Lab <50%
Labour result historically very good for them in DSW, but quite a bit below expectations.