Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after December budget - Irish Times

[You kip if you want to...]

And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

Meaning what exactly?

Austerity leads to... well, what's currently happening in Ireland.

[afleitch]

Sort've related, but sort've not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOQmuh_YPOk&feature=sub

Name me a politician of any worth who didn't say that about the Irish economy back in 2006

[minionofmidas]

Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after December budget - Irish Times

February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

NY Times is reporting that Prime Minister Cowen will dissolve his government after the budget is enacted.

[You kip if you want to...]

Excuse my ignorance of Irish politics, but Fine Gael-Labour coalition post-election? Also, if the Greens are actively making calls for an election, is there a reason why the opposition haven't taken the oppurtunity to table a motion of no confidence, or is it just because it wouldn't be a good idea at a time of national crisis?

[Oakvale]

Excuse my ignorance of Irish politics, but Fine Gael-Labour coalition post-election?

Or Labour-Fine Gael, quite possibly.

In a more unlikely scenario where things go really well for Gilmore et al you could have some kind of left-wing coalition of Labour+SF+Independents, but, yeah, either FG-LAB or vice versa.

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AFAIK there are rumours that Fine Gael or Labour will propose such tomorrow or in the next couple of days, but nothing's certain.

[MaxQue]

Labour?

I thought Irish Labour was hovering around 10% each election and was very weak outside its strong areas.

Something happened to them to be popular lately?

[Хahar 🤔]

Would Labour-SF be possible, even if the numbers were there? I'm not sure how the other parties in the Republic treat Sinn Féin. It would of course be very interesting to see Provisional Sinn Féin join a government headed by a member of Official Sinn Féin.

Labour?

I thought Irish Labour was hovering around 10% each election and was very weak outside its strong areas.

Something happened to them to be popular lately?

They've been polling very well for a long time. It's the same thing that has happened in many countries: Fianna Fáil is very unpopular, but FIne Gael has not done a good job in opposition.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour?

I thought Irish Labour was hovering around 10% each election and was very weak outside its strong areas.

Something happened to them to be popular lately?

Fianna Fail's collapsed into 3rd on about 17% and Labour's surged to 25-30%.

[Insula Dei]

Will the fate of the greens give us a taste of what is to come for Nick Clegg and his mates?

[You kip if you want to...]

Will the fate of the greens give us a taste of what is to come for Nick Clegg and his mates?

The Greens only got 4.7% last time round, can't fall much further. For Clegg though, it's a long way down from 24%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, yeah. For one thing they started from a much lower base.

[Јas]

And, I just think that Britain (and other countries) should look at Ireland before they decide to start an era of slash-and-burn on their country's public services.

Meaning what exactly?

Austerity leads to... well, what's currently happening in Ireland.

We have a budget deficit running at 32% of GDP and international markets that demand exorbitant interest rates on new lending - and you propose our problem was that the budget deficit was not big enough?

Interesting. Do please elucidate so that I may follow you down the rabbit-hole.

[Јas]

Fianna Fáil ministers are meeting now.
With the prospect of failing to pass a budget now very much within the range of possibilities, what odds on a decision to immediately go for an election? Or in light of crumbling support, Cowen to make a statement on stepping down?

Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after December budget - Irish Times

February or March? Can he really last that long? Looks unlikely after today...

Indeed. I'd say quite improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

It's touch and go whether Cowen has the confidence of the Dáil right now, if the opposition force things they could conceivably prevent him getting to the budget with a prior confidence motion. Presumably they should wait until after Thursday's by-election to maximise their numbers.

That said, it's not unfathomable to me to see FG effectively allowing Cowen's budget through. (But then I'm not sure even I trust my own prognostications with anything FG related.)

[Јas]

lso, if the Greens are actively making calls for an election, is there a reason why the opposition haven't taken the oppurtunity to table a motion of no confidence

The Greens won't vote for an election until after the budget is passed.

[Јas]

Labour?

I thought Irish Labour was hovering around 10% each election and was very weak outside its strong areas.

Something happened to them to be popular lately?

Exhibit 1:
The Irish "Economy" 2007-10

Exhibit 2:

[Јas]

FF Parliamentary Party meeting tonight. Tom Kitt (FF-Dublin S) is reportedly seeking enough signatures (18) to force a debate on the party's confidence in their leader.

[Јas]

Technically the by-election began yesterday. Traditionally Ireland's outlying islands vote a couple of days before the mainland. Donegal South West takes in quite a few of those islands - they voted yesterday.

[afleitch]

Irish accents (Southern not 'Nrn') abound in Glasgow yesterday...and they weren't on a holiday. At the bus station the usual Rail-Sail bus dropped people off with suitcases reading jobs supplements. Probably about 10 people but that's got to be a major fear for the Irish given the downturn; it's cheap and quick to head to the UK.

[Јas]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

[Silent Hunter]

You'd never get a headline like that uncensored in the UK...

[MaxQue]

That cover is so screaming "british-like rag".

They even have the nationalist side with "better because we're irish".
It is strange to see a newspaper taking a so clear opinion.

[Јas]

Sinn Féin to submit motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach - Irish Times

Minister for Tourism, Mary Hanafin first to effectively declare her interest in taking over FF - Irish Times

Ann Sweeney, independent candidate in Donegal SW, decides to boycott the by-election - Irish Times

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I take it that the paper will not be endorsing Fianna FAIL in the election?