NE Sen Predictions

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm predicting a MO-Sen 2016 redux, like Fischer +2-3 but I feel better about this than MT or even TX

[Dave Hedgehog]

I think it will be a very underwhelming R hold à la MS-GOV last year. Fischer by about 5. Actually reckon it will end up to the left of MT-SEN the way things have been going.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Fischer by about 5, though I’m gonna go under 5. Osborne is running a great campaign but I just can’t see Nebraska of all places flipping.

Agreed. Normally I'd highball it more than that, but Osborn has actually hit 50% in a few polls so I imagine that his margin of defeat will ultimately actually be pretty narrow (I define narrow as sub 5 points).

Yeah, I voted in the Fischer by 3-5 category

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Fischer+10

[CentristRepublican]

I think it will be a very underwhelming R hold à la MS-GOV last year. Fischer by about 5. Actually reckon it will end up to the left of MT-SEN the way things have been going.

I could see that.

[here2view]

I'm revising my earlier prediction of Fischer +10, I think she wins by 6. I'll say Fischer 51-45.

Dreadful campaign, but she'll be 79 in 2030 so she'll probably escape getting primaried out.

[Flyersfan232]

fischer by 7-10

[Mexican Wolf]

Going to bump down my earlier prediction on a different thread of Fischer +8% to +11% to Fischer +4% to +7%.

[Burke Bro]

Osborn by a hair.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Selzer poll is very bullish for Osborn.

[redjohn]

Selzer poll makes me think Osborn might catch a late surge with undecideds who are also breaking for Harris. This state is ripe for a surprise flip if Harris is winning nationally by more than expected and these IA trends are anywhere close to accurate.

[anthonyjg]

Fischer by 4. I do hope dems realize candidates like Osborn are going to be an absolute necessity for staying alive in the senate in the very near future.

[President Johnson]

Fisher wins 53-43%. Ergo, Kansas 2014 redux.

[CentristRepublican]

Amending my prediction to a slightly more bearish Fischer+6, unfortunately.

[Compuzled_One]

Fischer+4.

[Mr. Illini]

Fisher wins 53-43%. Ergo, Kansas 2014 redux.

Or Tennessee 2018. There is one of these almost every cycle.

[New World Man]

It happening once it became more nationalized. Too big of an ask.

[NumbersNerd]

Fischer by about 5%.

[dkxdjy]

Looks like it finished at R+8 - not that far from what Atlas predicted

[Accordion Hazard]

Osborn joins Orman and McMullin in the "Independent alternative that heavily overperformed but not enough to win an R state in an R favorable cycle". At face value if Harris had won by 2020 national margins Osborn just might have squeaked by.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Osborn joins Orman and McMullin in the "Independent alternative that heavily overperformed but not enough to win an R state in an R favorable cycle". At face value if Harris had won by 2020 national margins Osborn just might have squeaked by.

No, this one was close-ish.  I agree Osborn might’ve won had Harris gotten 2020 national margins.  This suggests there is a very real path for this sort of thing, especially given how Republican Nebraska is. 

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Fischer+10

The actual margin was Fischer+8, so I did pretty well here.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The polls lied again and Change poll had Osborn +2 what a silly pollster

NE, TX, UT, GA although Ossoff will win and FL will get redder with Trump off the ballot but IA, OH, PA, MI, WI AZ, NVand NC  goes D

[CentristRepublican]

Amending my prediction to a slightly more bearish Fischer+6, unfortunately.

Hit the nail on the head...final margin was Fischer+6.7.