Do you believe in The "Flooding the Zone " Theory ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Want to know your thoughts on this popular theory. I personally find it quite dubious given that there's no real benefit to polling changes on this level in terms of changing anyones vote or shifting campaigns priorities.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

The polls were considered historically accurate in 2022 and RCP’s national GCB was within 0.3% of the actual result. So if there is “flooding of the zone” as bloomers allege, it probably is only helping mitigate errors that haven’t been corrected.

[DaleCooper]

The polls were considered historically accurate in 2022 and RCP’s national GCB was within 0.3% of the actual result. So if there is “flooding of the zone” as bloomers allege, it probably is only helping mitigate errors that haven’t been corrected.

This reminds me of how Democrats would defend polls after 2016 by citing the popular vote or how everything was within the margin of error outside of a couple states. No one cares about the GCB, lol. The races that mattered in 2022 underestimated Democrats across the board, nationwide.

[soundchaser]

The polls were considered historically accurate in 2022 and RCP’s national GCB was within 0.3% of the actual result. So if there is “flooding of the zone” as bloomers allege, it probably is only helping mitigate errors that haven’t been corrected.

I wouldn't call missing MI-GOV by 10 points "historically accurate."

[หมูเด้ง]

Why are most polls from Republican internals or Republican aligned groups, then?

[Ferguson97]

It’s verifiably true that there are right-leaning pollsters who do this (it happened in 2022!), but I don’t know if it’s enough to actually substantially change the averages this time.

Though it would be interesting if the “right wing hacks are flooding the polls” and “legit pollsters underestimate Trump” are both true, so they’re just cancelling each other out and inadvertently making the averages completely accurate.

[kydmb99]

This absolutely occurred in 2022 and definitely seems to be happening to some degree now.  Most traditional pollsters seems to show Harris leading by generally 2-4 points... I think that's where the race is and would probably indicate a narrow Harris advantage in the EC... but still within the MOE for a Trump victory.

[Existing in the context]

Why are most polls from Republican internals or Republican aligned groups, then?

Right cause where did Quantus, Arc Insights, and UATX come from.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

it would be interesting if the “right wing hacks are flooding the polls” and “legit pollsters underestimate Trump” are both true, so they’re just cancelling each other out and inadvertently making the averages completely accurate.

[หมูเด้ง]

It’s verifiably true that there are right-leaning pollsters who do this (it happened in 2022!), but I don’t know if it’s enough to actually substantially change the averages this time.

Though it would be interesting if the “right wing hacks are flooding the polls” and “legit pollsters underestimate Trump” are both true, so they’re just cancelling each other out and inadvertently making the averages completely accurate.

If this is true, things are going to be very close. Otherwise, Trump is probably on track to a similar victory that W had in 2004 (wins the popular vote plus Nevada) or Harris on track to a repeat of 2020 or even 2012.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

The polls were considered historically accurate in 2022 and RCP’s national GCB was within 0.3% of the actual result. So if there is “flooding of the zone” as bloomers allege, it probably is only helping mitigate errors that haven’t been corrected.

I wouldn't call missing MI-GOV by 10 points "historically accurate."

I really wish this Presidential election had been held in 2022 instead of 2024. Biden would have absolutely crushed Trump.

[Bush did 311]

The purpose is to create a false perception of the race so that when they try to overturn the results of the election again they have ground to call the results illigitimate.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

It's not just a theory, we're already seeing it unfold. What else can explain this recent flood of lower quality GOP pollsters in the past month or so?

[wbrocks67]

The purpose is to create a false perception of the race so that when they try to overturn the results of the election again they have ground to call the results illigitimate.

Exactly this. It doesn't matter if the race is actually close or not - their goal is to just simply make it appear close/Trump with a small lead, flood the averages, so that Trump has evidence to say it was stolen if she wins.

Then because there is so much flooding, it makes the higher quality outlets question their results. But even when higher quality outlets do release, it's never as frequently as the lower quality pollsters, so their results end up being washed away in the averages, even if their weighted higher.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It was definitely the case in 2022.

I think we'll need to see the dust of this election settle before knowing for sure.

If it does end up true, polling as an industry either needs to be less emphasized in the future, or make some major changes. Granted, Trump potentially never being on a ballot ever again ought to make that easier.

[wbrocks67]

It was definitely the case in 2022.

I think we'll need to see the dust of this election settle before knowing for sure.

If it does end up true, polling as an industry either needs to be less emphasized in the future, or make some major changes. Granted, Trump potentially never being on a ballot ever again ought to make that easier.

I think if it does end up happening again, the entire "just throw it in the average" schtick needs to be reevaluated.

[Senator Incitatus]

I’m not really into conspiracy nonsense.

[October Choke Artist]

dude,
your candidate is behind. Instead of facing reality, why make up some bull sh**t 'theory'?

[heatcharger]

When you’re definitely winning the election —

[leonardothered]

dude,
your candidate is behind. Instead of facing reality, why make up some bull sh**t 'theory'?

This ceased being a theory when Rasmussen was outed. The question is how prevalent this is.

[Mehmentum]

I mean, isn't it obvious that we're getting a lot of polls from Republican affiliated pollsters?  Maybe you think they're right and more accurate than the non-partisan pollsters, but either way it feels like a thing that's just happening.

[leonardothered]

I’m not really into conspiracy nonsense.

Again, this is not a conspiracy, its already happened.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=612006.0

[Sestak]

Yeah, flooding the zone is clearly a thing that happens with some pollsters (the trinity of Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and IA, along with the two-bit newcomers like Patriot, Wick, SoCal...).

The "conspiracy" part of this comes down to:

1. How many polls do you actually consider part of this; is Emerson part of this? TIPP? AtlasIncel?

2. Is the primary motivation here actually an attempt to skew the averages, or are each of these outlets just motivated by a desire to get clicks and attention, and it's just that publishing results in the way they do is a more apparently fruitful way to do this?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The polls were considered historically accurate in 2022 and RCP’s national GCB was within 0.3% of the actual result. So if there is “flooding of the zone” as bloomers allege, it probably is only helping mitigate errors that haven’t been corrected.

I wouldn't call missing MI-GOV by 10 points "historically accurate."

I really wish this Presidential election had been held in 2022 instead of 2024. Biden would have absolutely crushed Trump.

One could argue Dems did well that year precisely because Biden was relatively invisible. He may have dragged Democratic candidates down.

[7,052,770]

I don't know how you can argue against it at this point

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1844767513722126559