Midpoint between 2016 and 2020 would be Harris+3.2. Who'd win?

[The Mikado]

Please don't just shift the map with uniform national swing. I'll do it here:



Harris wins NV and MI, Trump wins all other swing states. Trump wins PA by <0.1% so that one's kind of fudging it but even if Harris wins PA she'd lose 272-266.

But that's boring and besides, I don't think anyone thinks NV and MI are the two best swing states for Harris this time. States don't actually move by Universal National Swing in real life, some swing harder than others.

So what do you guys think a Harris +3.2 would look like?

[Joe Biden 2028]

Harris winning nationally by 3.2 wins her the election. Swing states aren't really affected by the NPV

[October Choke Artist]

Similar to your map, but she loses MI as well

I think Trump does better in rust belt than sunbelt. Polling is off in the rust belt and I ain't about be fooled a 3rd time

[Brad Note]

So what do you guys think a Harris +3.2 would look like?

2020 map + NC - AZ/GA. 292-246 Harris win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I feel fairly confident that Harris wins with more than three points in the national popular vote.

[Mr. Smith]

She wins The Rust Belt + NE-02 and the election on that.

[ultraviolet]

276 freiwall

[emailking]

I'm guessing Trump's EV advantage is lessened from 2016 so I think that's probably a Harris win.

[Pericles]

Put it into the demographic swingometer and reduced turnout by 5%. Non college whites Trump +28%, college whites Harris +16%, blacks Harris +73%, Hispanics Harris +16%, Asians Harris +18%. That adds up to a 3.2% popular vote margin. On that, Harris wins 276 electoral votes-her closest state and the tipping point is a 0.2% win in Wisconsin.

[🥥🌴]

Uniform shift from 2016 is a Clinton win
Uniform shift from 2020 is a Trump win

The PV to EC grap between 2016 and 2020. Hard to predict if it continues to grow or shrink, but likely if Trump wins one would assume it shrinks a bit. If Harris outperforms, it probably continues to increase unless the rust belt strongly swings left.

I think we're actually very close to +3.2 and it's almost an exact toss-up.

It's a very hard call to make, but i think she falls narrowly short unless New York indeed shifts 10 points right in which case she wins by a slim margin in the rust belt states.

[🥥🌴]

Please don't just shift the map with uniform national swing. I'll do it here:


So what do you guys think a Harris +3.2 would look like?

This would be my bet too, either way, this would be a very frustrating one for one side of the spectrum. It's a scenario where i think avoiding atlas for a month after the election result would be the best thing to do, because everyone is going to be toxic and offended at the slightest thing and going to post stupid theories like "what if Shapiro was picked", "should we deport the arab americans" and stuff like that.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Harris barely wins in this scenario.

[Ferguson97]

MI/WI/PA/NV and one of AZ/NC/GA.

[Talk Elections Oracle]

Here’s my map.

[The Mikado]

Bump.

Uniform national swing to Harris +3.2 from actual result would be this:



Harris wins all swing states but AZ, and even barely clears 50% in NC.

Incredible how different this is than what I would've expected. 2024 wiped out the PV/EV gap in the most monkey's paw way imaginable for Dems.

[Chief Justice PiT]

Harris winning nationally by 3.2 wins her the election. Swing states aren't really affected by the NPV

     If the midpoint is calculated state-by-state then the big states that swung hard are way more Dem than 2024 actual results.

[Devils30]

Harris would have won the 308 map at as low as +1.65 nationally. Yet she could not even do this. Even the Hillary +2.1% map gets her WI by 3, MI by 2.5, PA by 2, GA by 1.5, NC by 0.5, NV by 0.6. She loses AZ by 2.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Bump.

Uniform national swing to Harris +3.2 from actual result would be this:



Harris wins all swing states but AZ, and even barely clears 50% in NC.

Incredible how different this is than what I would've expected. 2024 wiped out the PV/EV gap in the most monkey's paw way imaginable for Dems.

This was a pretty common prediction map in the last few weeks before the election.