Who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[Lief 🗽]

Romney.

[Know Your Rights!]

And now Huckabee is in a 3-way tie for the lead with Giuliani and Romney(!).  I know the 2nd place finish in the straw poll was impressive, but don't you people claiming that Huckabee is now the **most likely nominee** think you might be getting a little carried away with this?

I've said Huckabee would get it even before the Iowa straw poll. He has excellent conservative credentials, pastor, Governor, from the south. It will be an uphill battle, but I think that the current climate (meaning: the distaste for current GOP candidates) makes a second-tier candidate climbing into the first tier a major likelihood, and the candidate to make that climb is Mike Huckabee.

[M]

I'm having a hard time imagining anyone winning the nomination right now.

Rudy Giuliani is an authoritarian asshole

Who cares how he governs at home? The point is, he's the only candidate with the balls to take the fight, and democracy, to the enemy. I have never understood how anyone can claim to be 'libertarian' at home and yet effectively support totalitarianism abroad by opposing foreign intervention. That's the worst kind of hypocrisy.

A true Libertarian would neither support nor attempt to overthrow a dictator abroad. During wars is when the most freedoms are lost, if you were to look at it on a graph. Also, I would presume that a Libertarian would support the preservation of life (and no, I'm not referring to abortion), so lives can easily be saved on both sides by not getting into a war. It is not hypocritical for a Libertarian to be supportive of non-intervention abroad, in fact, I would think that the opposite would be true. A genuine Libertarian knows that, by definition, you cannot spread freedom through the barrel of a gun.

1. Show me a graph of the freedoms won/lost worldwide through the Civil War WWII and its aftermath.
2. How many lives were saved by delaying or avoiding interventions in Germany, Cambodia, Rwanda, and the Sudan?
3. But I must concede, military solutions have utterly failed in securing American independece; in ending Southern slavery, the Holocaust, and the gulag archipelago; or in bringing democracy to Germany, Italy or Japan. I guess freedom doesn't flow from the barrel of the gun.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney.

Anyone saying Huckabee has a bad case of WalterMitty-itis.

[Person Man]

Romney.

Anyone saying Huckabee has a bad case of WalterMitty-itis.

Yeah, Hickabee plays the hick role too much and America has hick fatigue right now. Udall and Tester may remind people of hicks, but they are definitely not hicks when it comes to their outlooks.

[Verily]

Romney. He wins Iowa and New Hampshire, wins Nevada and comes in at least second in South Carolina on the momentum from the first two. He then wins Wyoming, and then comes in at least second in Florida and wins Maine. Then he wins all of the Mega Tuesday states except New Jersey and New York (Arizona and Arkansas might go to "their" candidates instead) and has the nomination wrapped up.

He has the money, organization and charisma to maintain his frontrunner status in the early states, and that's all he needs.

[SPC]

1. Show me a graph of the freedoms won/lost worldwide through the Civil War WWII and its aftermath.
2. How many lives were saved by delaying or avoiding interventions in Germany, Cambodia, Rwanda, and the Sudan?
3. But I must concede, military solutions have utterly failed in securing American independece; in ending Southern slavery, the Holocaust, and the gulag archipelago; or in bringing democracy to Germany, Italy or Japan. I guess freedom doesn't flow from the barrel of the gun.

1. One can be provided in John Stossel's Give Me A Break.
2. Neither I, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, or James Madison would agree with the principle of invading other countries that present no direct threat to us for the sole purpose of circumventing genocide.
3. I think that the best way to spread republicanism abroad is through peace. By trading with other countries and setting a good example of how a free society can work over here, I believe countries abroad would be more inclined to establish a free society over there.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney: 34%
Giuliani: 40%
Thompson: 15%
Huckabee: 5%
McCain: 5%
Rest of Field: 1%

In other words: Giuliani is the most likely of the field to win, but it's still more likely that it will be someone other than Giuliani who faces Clinton.

[Eraserhead]

Fred Thompson has one vote. lol.

[Keystone Phil]

Fred Thompson has one vote. lol.

And that's mine. I'm so disappointed he didn't win the Forum Straw Poll vote. He'll probably have to sit out now because the few Republicans and many Dems here don't think he'll win.

[Middle-aged Europe]

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

Funny how the respective "frontrunners" only lasted for either a single or two consecutive polls. Allen -> McCain -> Giuliani -> Thompson -> Romney. According to this pattern Romney should be replaced as frontrunner in the September 2007 poll by a sixth candidate... or will Romney be the first candidate to win three polls in a row?

[Eraserhead]

I'm thinking Romney is tad overrated on here.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Romney

[Wakie]

Romney

With no clear Bush successor the Republicans will go with the least offensive.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Fred is as dead as they come... I am going for Romney now.

[Eraserhead]

Romney

With no clear Bush successor the Republicans will go with the least offensive.

The least offensive what?

[Reaganfan]

Giuliani will be the Republican Nominee.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Romney