Which (presumably) safe state incumbent Senator will have the biggest drop in margin?
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  Which (presumably) safe state incumbent Senator will have the biggest drop in margin?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which safe state incumbent Senator (based on current seat ratings) will have the biggest drop in margin (ordered by prior margin)?
#1
Mazie Hirono [+42.3]		  
#2
Kirsten Gillibrand [+34.0]		  
#3
Elizabeth Warren [+24.2]		  
#4
Amy Klobuchar [+24.1]		  
#5
Sheldon Whitehouse [+23.1]		  
#6
Chris Murphy [+20.2]		  
#7
Maria Cantwell [+16.8]		  
#8
Marsha Blackburn [+10.8]		  
#9
Kevin Cramer [+10.9]		  
#10
Roger Wicker [+19.0]		  
#11
John Barrasso [+36.9]		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Which (presumably) safe state incumbent Senator will have the biggest drop in margin?  (Read 490 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 25, 2024, 05:50:43 PM »
My bet is Whitehouse or Gillibrand.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2024, 05:51:51 PM »
I guess Deb Fischer doesn't count. I vote Klobuchar, don't think she will outrun Harris/Walz by much.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2024, 05:52:26 PM »
Quote from: 春原 on September 25, 2024, 05:51:51 PM
I guess Deb Fischer doesn't count. I vote Klobuchar, don't think she will outrun Harris/Walz by much.

Fischer’s race isn’t universally rated as safe.

I guess what I’m really looking for here is whether we might see a NJ 1990 type result anywhere.
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The '90s' Last Champion
S019
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2024, 06:37:43 PM »
I'm pretty sure it will be either Gillibrand or Klobuchar
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2024, 06:40:28 PM »
Gillibrand or the Klobs. Right now I'm thinking NY is like Gillibrand + 18 (16 point shift right) and MN is Klobs + 10 (14 point shift right).

I think Whitehouse underperforms 2018 but disagree he'd be at the top of this list - he'll win by double-digits.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2024, 07:13:39 PM »
Gillibrand, Klobuchar or potentially Hirono.
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Reactionary Libertarian
ReactionaryLibertarian
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2024, 12:28:21 AM »
Kloubachar will do fine. Her opponent is atrocious. Like, Robinson-tier. I vote Gillibrand.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2024, 12:43:38 AM »
Probably Gillibrand, given how NY’s been doing lately and her previous history of overperforming.

The inverse is obviously going to be Cramer, followed by Blackburn.
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America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2024, 01:08:34 AM »
Hirono
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Fancyarcher
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2024, 01:55:54 AM »
Quote from: Reactionary Libertarian on September 26, 2024, 12:28:21 AM
Kloubachar will do fine. Her opponent is atrocious. Like, Robinson-tier. I vote Gillibrand.

Klobuchar's opponent may be atrocious, but she's very likely to see her crossover support further eroded irregardless, which would still be a substantial drop from 2018.

My vote is Gillibrand though. I forget how much well she did in 2018. Hard to see a New York Democrat doing that well anytime soon.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2024, 12:07:54 PM »
Quote from: Reactionary Libertarian on September 26, 2024, 12:28:21 AM
Kloubachar will do fine. Her opponent is atrocious. Like, Robinson-tier. I vote Gillibrand.

But I feel like because the race isn't nearly as high-profile (ultimately the outcome is still Safe D), ppl won't necessarily be as aware of his craziness.

Darren Bailey (the R candidate for IL gov two years ago) was also downright insane, but he still outran Trump's 2020 margin slightly, likely because ppl weren't very familiar with him, voted in the context of generic R and/or voted against Pritzker more than they voted for Bailey.

Likewise Robinson himself won the liuetenant governor race by a bigger margin than Trump!
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2024, 12:08:08 PM »
Another victory for the wisdom of the Atlas crowd (partial results):

Swing from 2018:
Kirsten Gillibrand [-17.1]
Mazie Hirono [-9.7]
Amy Klobuchar [-8.3]
Elizabeth Warren [-4.8]
Sheldon Whitehouse [-3.4]
Chris Murphy [-1.2]
Maria Cantwell [+2.5]
Roger Wicker [+7.7]
John Barrasso [+14.1]
Marsha Blackburn [+18.9]
Kevin Cramer [+22.1]
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Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2024, 12:44:36 PM »
Wow, Warren lost two counties this time? How embarrassing. Harris won both it seems.
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