NC (AARP/Fabrizio/Impact): Trump +2 / +3

[wbrocks67]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

[Proud Independent]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

[หมูเด้ง]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

Maybe you are right but Trump hitched a lot on him and the Robinson reminds people of MAGA culture.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It depends on how, or if, the Harris campaign ties them together going forward and essentially puts them, and other statewide Republicans, in a position of having a referendum on them and MAGA overall.

[Proud Independent]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It depends on how, or if, the Harris campaign ties them together going forward and essentially puts them, and other statewide Republicans, in a position of having a referendum on them and MAGA overall.

And if Trump(and his campaign) ignore Mark Robinson completely like they’ve been doing?  You really can’t tie him to Trump if he flat out ignores Robinson. Reverse coattails are not a thing, and they’ll likely never be a thing. Also, I honestly think people will stop caring about the scandal. People have really short attention spans and the news cycles moves extremely fast(I imagine it couldn’t move fast  enough for Robinson).

[wbrocks67]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It depends on how, or if, the Harris campaign ties them together going forward and essentially puts them, and other statewide Republicans, in a position of having a referendum on them and MAGA overall.

And if Trump(and his campaign) ignore Mark Robinson completely like they’ve been doing?  You really can’t tie him to Trump if he flat out ignores Robinson. Reverse coattails are not a thing, and they’ll likely never be a thing. Also, I honestly think people will stop caring about the scandal. People have really short attention spans and the news cycles moves extremely fast(I imagine it couldn’t move fast  enough for Robinson).

What in the world? Because Trump ignores him for a few days, suddenly you can't tie him to him when he's on film dozens of times in the last week, month, year praising him? This is delusional

[Existing in the context]

We need more Robinson ads.

[Proud Independent]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It depends on how, or if, the Harris campaign ties them together going forward and essentially puts them, and other statewide Republicans, in a position of having a referendum on them and MAGA overall.

And if Trump(and his campaign) ignore Mark Robinson completely like they’ve been doing? You really can’t tie him to Trump if he flat out ignores Robinson. Reverse coattails are not a thing, and they’ll likely never be a thing. Also, I honestly think people will stop caring about the scandal. People have really short attention spans and the news cycles moves extremely fast(I imagine it couldn’t move fast  enough for Robinson).

What in the world? Because Trump ignores him for a few days, suddenly you can't tie him to him when he's on film dozens of times in the last week, month, year praising him? This is delusional

Try for a few weeks. Eventually people will stop caring about this. Hell, I don’t  even they’re actually angry over this.

[Agafin]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It makes 0 sense. Even if Trump loses North Carolina, it will absolutely not be because of Robinson. Some people even mention him deflating turnout. I mean come on, presidential years have higher turnout than midterm years for a reason. People are coming to vote for Trump first, downballot latter (or not at all), not the other way around.

Honestly, for people who believe in reverse coattails, do you expect Hogan to help Trump in Maryland?

[Existing in the context]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It makes 0 sense. Even if Trump loses North Carolina, it will absolutely not be because of Robinson. Some people even mention him deflating turnout. I mean come on, presidential years have higher turnout than midterm years for a reason. People are coming to vote for Trump first, downballot latter (or not at all), not the other way around.

Honestly, for people who believe in reverse coattails, do you expect Hogan to help Trump in Maryland?

Maryland isn't close though

[Proud Independent]

Trump 48%
Harris 46%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 1%

Trump 50%
Harris 47%

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/north-carolina-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.038.pdf

Sept 11-17, so post debate but before Robinson scandal blew up. I know you all are very shocked to see another AARP poll with a small Trump lead

Don’t know why people think the Robinson scandal was ever going to hurt Trump? The logic doesn’t even make sense. Robinson being a bad candidate has been baked in for MONTHS at this point;prior to the scandal he was always going to lose. I don’t  think the average person who was going to vote for Trump will either vote for Harris or not vote at all because of Mark Robinson.

It makes 0 sense. Even if Trump loses North Carolina, it will absolutely not be because of Robinson. Some people even mention him deflating turnout. I mean come on, presidential years have higher turnout than midterm years for a reason. People are coming to vote for Trump first, downballot latter (or not at all), not the other way around.

Honestly, for people who believe in reverse coattails, do you expect Hogan to help Trump in Maryland?

Maryland isn't close though

Are you actually going to change your vote for the top of the ticket(a person you were already going to vote for months in advance, you were locked in) all because of one downballot race which happens to include a scandal riddled opponent?


It doesn’t make sense. And yes, there were always going to be ALOT of Trump/Stein voters prior to the scandal.

[Vern]

Yea, the only way it would hurt Trump would be if Trump was still out there doing events with him. Harris can try and tie Trump with him because of the past events they did together, but it will only sway a little.

[somco]

I think people are taking far too hard of a stance on Robinson's impact. It's not going to single-handedly cost Trump the state but it could absolutely impact some amount of votes in a close election.

[Proud Independent]

I think people are taking far too hard of a stance on Robinson's impact. It's not going to single-handedly cost Trump the state but it could absolutely impact some amount of votes in a close election.

FFS, if anything I think Stein leaked this way too early from a strategic standpoint. Probably could have waited until next week.

[Spectator]

I think people are taking far too hard of a stance on Robinson's impact. It's not going to single-handedly cost Trump the state but it could absolutely impact some amount of votes in a close election.

FFS, if anything I think Stein leaked this way too early from a strategic standpoint. Probably could have waited until next week.

Your assumption Stein’s campaign leaked it at all is faulty. He’d have no incentive to do so until after the deadline had passed. This has the NCGOP party bigs’ hands all over it. They miscalculated. If this was going to work, it should’ve been done months ago and with Trump’s support for a change in nominees.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need NC anyways but like FL and TX they are swing states

[DaleCooper]

I think people are taking far too hard of a stance on Robinson's impact. It's not going to single-handedly cost Trump the state but it could absolutely impact some amount of votes in a close election.

FFS, if anything I think Stein leaked this way too early from a strategic standpoint. Probably could have waited until next week.

Your assumption Stein’s campaign leaked it at all is faulty. He’d have no incentive to do so until after the deadline had passed. This has the NCGOP party bigs’ hands all over it. They miscalculated. If this was going to work, it should’ve been done months ago and with Trump’s support for a change in nominees.

They should've just released this back during the primary, with or without Trump's blessing. It's obvious that this information was well known behind the scenes for a long time now.

[Vern]

We don't need NC anyways but like FL and TX they are swing states

TX and FL aren’t swing states. They are Lean Republican states that could vote Dem in a landslide, like how NH and MN for the Dems.

[Ljube]

These AARP polls oversample 50+ voters and get a more realistic picture of the state of the race.
The problem with the other polls is in that they rely on online panels and older voters are not skilled with that kind of technology.

Traditional phone calls are better with older voters.

Response rates of older voters in all polls are very low, and that skews the poll result because the pollster has to extrapolate 10-13% subsample of 65+ poll responders to the expected 25-27% share of this group in the electorate. This creates wild differences in subsample results from poll to poll.

AARP polls have consistent results for the 50+ group achieved through oversampling, and the results are heavily pro-Trump, as expected. The 65+ group is Trump+15 or more in all their polls.

[NOVA Green]

These AARP polls oversample 50+ voters and get a more realistic picture of the state of the race.
The problem with the other polls is in that they rely on online panels and older voters are not skilled with that kind of technology.

Traditional phone calls are better with older voters.

Response rates of older voters in all polls are very low, and that skews the poll result because the pollster has to extrapolate 10-13% subsample of 65+ poll responders to the expected 25-27% share of this group in the electorate. This creates wild differences in subsample results from poll to poll.

AARP polls have consistent results for the 50+ group achieved through oversampling, and the results are heavily pro-Trump, as expected. The 65+ group is Trump+15 or more in all their polls.

Good point, which I even believe I saw a story on earlier today about how Older White voters in NC are considered the mostly likely to vote, as well as Older Black voters.

Needless to say in NC this POP skews much more heavily PUB than any other age cohort, simply because of the % of White Voters within the sample size compared to State avg VAP.

AARP polls are definitely important to look at, but let's face it they have a mission to protect benefits for Senior Citizens.

My wife could legally file for Social Security right now if she wanted to but obviously as working-class folks we can't afford to retire and don't even own our own home.

Really thinking Harris needs to run some deep ads about how "Trump and the Republicans in Congress are gonna gut Social Security".

Sure tons of PUBS don't wanna touch the "Third Rail", but there are plenty who have, including many highly visible PUB candidates for Federal and State elections.

Retirees vote and not all of us have had our fortune handed to us and silver platers and many struggling for the basic concept of housing security as we move into our "golden years".

[tagimaucia]

Is it fair to say that these AARP polls are the closest we're gonna get to actually looking at campaign internals?  IIRC, the pollsters conducting it are two of the major ones for Trump and Harris respectively.