Who has a better chance of becoming governor?
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  Who has a better chance of becoming governor?
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Author Topic: Who has a better chance of becoming governor?  (Read 1901 times)
DownWithTheLeft
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« on: August 12, 2007, 08:02:59 AM »

John Eaves or John Murphy?

I say Murphy only because he at least has a shot in the general, his downfall would be having to get through a primary.
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Conan
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2007, 12:38:58 PM »

Eaves
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2007, 08:47:48 AM »

Eaves, but only if he runs again in 2011.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2007, 09:57:24 AM »

Any particular reason or just a blanket "Republicans will never win in NJ statement", because last time I checked MS seems to have the same problems toward Dems.  Only difference is Murphy is a GOP rising star and Eaves is like a 5th tier candidate they pulled out because no one else wanted to run
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Verily
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2007, 10:26:20 AM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2007, 10:40:16 AM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2007, 10:42:12 AM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.

He received 1.5 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than she did in the Republican primary. For two uncontested primaries, that's usually a sign of weakness for the incumbent. I don't doubt that she is the better Senator, but the increasingly-Democratic 7th might dump her for partisan reasons.
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2007, 03:54:47 PM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.

He received 1.5 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than she did in the Republican primary. For two uncontested primaries, that's usually a sign of weakness for the incumbent. I don't doubt that she is the better Senator, but the increasingly-Democratic 7th might dump her for partisan reasons.

It's a sign of an incredibly Democratic district—which, by the way, it has been since she first won in 1995.  The thing went, like, what, 66–33 for Al Gore?

The fact that 3,863 Democrats showed up to pull the Dennison lever means nothing.  Especially if you consider that 4,894 Democrats showed up to pull the Diane F. Gabriel lever in 2003.  (In case you're wondering 'Who?', Gabriel was the sacrificial lamb who lost to Allen in a landslide.)

Democrats should be much more worried about losing a seat to Propp in the 7th than Republicans need be that Allen will lose hers.
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Conan
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2007, 04:32:35 PM »

Any particular reason or just a blanket "Republicans will never win in NJ statement", because last time I checked MS seems to have the same problems toward Dems.  Only difference is Murphy is a GOP rising star and Eaves is like a 5th tier candidate they pulled out because no one else wanted to run
Don't kid yourself with imaginary statements you think I made. I believe republicans can win in NJ. However, their next chance is in 2013 for governor or 2012 for senate. Also, as one would note, democrats hold statewide offices in MS and at least one chamber, IIRC, of the legislature. Also, Murphy isn't anyone right now.
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Conan
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2007, 04:33:58 PM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.

He received 1.5 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than she did in the Republican primary. For two uncontested primaries, that's usually a sign of weakness for the incumbent. I don't doubt that she is the better Senator, but the increasingly-Democratic 7th might dump her for partisan reasons.

It's a sign of an incredibly Democratic district—which, by the way, it has been since she first won in 1995.  The thing went, like, what, 66–33 for Al Gore?

The fact that 3,863 Democrats showed up to pull the Dennison lever means nothing.  Especially if you consider that 4,894 Democrats showed up to pull the Diane F. Gabriel lever in 2003.  (In case you're wondering 'Who?', Gabriel was the sacrificial lamb who lost to Allen in a landslide.)

Democrats should be much more worried about losing a seat to Propp in the 7th than Republicans need be that Allen will lose hers.
And this is coming from the person who thinks Bodine has no shot?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2007, 04:59:44 PM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.

He received 1.5 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than she did in the Republican primary. For two uncontested primaries, that's usually a sign of weakness for the incumbent. I don't doubt that she is the better Senator, but the increasingly-Democratic 7th might dump her for partisan reasons.

It's a sign of an incredibly Democratic district—which, by the way, it has been since she first won in 1995.  The thing went, like, what, 66–33 for Al Gore?

The fact that 3,863 Democrats showed up to pull the Dennison lever means nothing.  Especially if you consider that 4,894 Democrats showed up to pull the Diane F. Gabriel lever in 2003.  (In case you're wondering 'Who?', Gabriel was the sacrificial lamb who lost to Allen in a landslide.)

Democrats should be much more worried about losing a seat to Propp in the 7th than Republicans need be that Allen will lose hers.
And this is coming from the person who thinks Bodine has no shot?

Indeed, though certainly PoliticsNJ backs me on this one.  I'm not bullish at all on GOP chances in NJ this year, but I do think that Republicans are more likely to get a pick-up in 7 than Democrats are.

Most likely, though, there will be no net change here.  Dennison will miss by a mile while Propp misses somewhat narrowly, like the GOP slate in 2003.
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Conan
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2007, 05:24:38 PM »

As the NJ GOP proved in 2002, they don't actually nominate people who can win. There are some signs that Diane Allen might even get booted from the State Senate this year; sad.

Diane Allen to be booted from the State Senate?  What planet is this?

Certainly not by the inept Rich Dennison.

He received 1.5 times as many votes in the Democratic primary than she did in the Republican primary. For two uncontested primaries, that's usually a sign of weakness for the incumbent. I don't doubt that she is the better Senator, but the increasingly-Democratic 7th might dump her for partisan reasons.

It's a sign of an incredibly Democratic district—which, by the way, it has been since she first won in 1995.  The thing went, like, what, 66–33 for Al Gore?

The fact that 3,863 Democrats showed up to pull the Dennison lever means nothing.  Especially if you consider that 4,894 Democrats showed up to pull the Diane F. Gabriel lever in 2003.  (In case you're wondering 'Who?', Gabriel was the sacrificial lamb who lost to Allen in a landslide.)

Democrats should be much more worried about losing a seat to Propp in the 7th than Republicans need be that Allen will lose hers.
And this is coming from the person who thinks Bodine has no shot?

Indeed, though certainly PoliticsNJ backs me on this one.  I'm not bullish at all on GOP chances in NJ this year, but I do think that Republicans are more likely to get a pick-up in 7 than Democrats are.

Most likely, though, there will be no net change here.  Dennison will miss by a mile while Propp misses somewhat narrowly, like the GOP slate in 2003.
Well it's obvious that Dennison looks like he's going to lose. However, Politics NJ seems to think that Bodine's district is in play and agrees this one isn't.
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Harry
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2007, 05:33:13 PM »

Eaves is like a 5th tier candidate they pulled out because no one else wanted to run

Not true at all...Eaves is well known for being a trial lawyer and was well known to be planning on running for governor as long ago as 2005.  He is a second tier candidate (our first tier candidates like Mike Moore and Ray Mabus chickened out), but he's not just some random guy...
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2007, 07:32:42 PM »

Barbour (R) 53%
Some Random Guy (D) 47%

Barbour (R) 58%
Eaves (D) 42%
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