Anecdotal Evidence Thread

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

I wanted to see what Atlas has been seeing among their less political/undecided friends/family, in terms of yard signs, etc. while minor, these things can be interesting bits of information.

On my end I haven’t seen much change, I know one former Biden->Trump voter (tankie) but nobody else has changed their mind. Can’t say anything about yard signs since I live in a different area. I will say social media seems a little less overwhelmingly pro Trump than 2020 and 2016.

[DaleCooper]

A lot more Harris and Walz signs in the cities from what I've seen, and a way fewer Trump signs all over.

One thing I have noticed that would be anecdotal evidence supporting Trump is that there are a lot more men of all ages under about 45 who have completely fallen apart. Whether they're incels or men whose wives have left them because they're disgusting and pathetic, they are very angry and they blame Disney and the woke mind virus for all of society's problems and these people will vote for Trump. I do think them being so closely associated with Republicans will alienate some normal people though.

[oldtimer]

I wanted to see what Atlas has been seeing among their less political/undecided friends/family, in terms of yard signs, etc. while minor, these things can be interesting bits of information.

On my end I haven’t seen much change, I know one former Biden->Trump voter (tankie) but nobody else has changed their mind. Can’t say anything about yard signs since I live in a different area. I will say social media seems a little less overwhelmingly pro Trump than 2020 and 2016.

About the social media thing, it's easy to measure it.

For example on Google Trends Trump is back to his usual interest advantage, as interest in politics has declined since the "summer of madness".

[पिकाचु]

My mom's acquaintance is voting for trump bc she thinks that kamala betrayed her Tamil Brahmin roots, but a relative who is kinda anti-black (really hates obama) loves her and sees her as 'one of us' so mixed signs on the Indian-American vote.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

My mom's acquaintance is voting for trump bc she thinks that kamala betrayed her Tamil Brahmin roots, but a relative who is kinda anti-black (really hates obama) loves her and sees her as 'one of us' so mixed signs on the Indian-American vote.

Interesting, by any chance do you know how they may have voted in 2020?

[Bush did 311]

In NC there are fewer signs and bumper stickers on both sides compared to previous years.

There are Harris signs and Biden signs--from before he dropped out that people have kept up. I'm in Durham, which is the bluest county in the state. It is not quite the energy of Obama in 2008 though, which may be disappointing to those who were hoping for it.

The foothills are Trump country. Back in April there were very few signs there. It was very low enthusiasm compared to previous years. After the assassination attempt they got revved up a bit more and the signs were closer to what I'd expect in July. Still lower than 2016 or 2020, and much lower than 2012 (I think Romney takes the cake for most signage of any presidential candidate ever here, though he only narrowly won the state).

You know there might be more Josh Stein signs than either Trump or Harris, I think. That should tell you where the vibes are in the room. About what you'd expect based on the polls.

[Skill and Chance]

In NC there are fewer signs and bumper stickers on both sides compared to previous years.

There are Harris signs and Biden signs (from before he dropped out that people have kept up) in Durham, which is the bluest county in the state.

The foothills are Trump country. Back in April there were very few signs there. It was very low enthusiasm compared to previous years. After the assassination attempt they got revved up a bit more and the signs were closer to what I'd expect in July. Still lower than 2016 or 2020, and much lower than 2012 (I think Romney takes the cake for most signage of any presidential candidate ever here, though he only narrowly won the state).

You know there might be more Josh Stein signs than either Trump or Harris, I think. That should tell you where the vibes are in the room. About what you'd expect based on the polls.

Yes, I think all indications are turnout will be down from 2020, possibly dramatically.  You could make arguments either way about who that helps.  Things just don't feel as existential for either side anymore and also people didn't spend the summer bored out of their minds.

Also, yes, I do think Stein is on the Shapiro trajectory now.  Wild how R's can't ever seem to win the governorship in NC.  They have a better recent record in VA than NC LOL.

[coloradocowboi]

It's really hard to tell in Colorado. A lot of people I know who used to be GOP are very anti-Trump now, but that is not a recent development.

[GAinDC]

Rarely saw any Biden signs in DC when he was still in the race

Now, Harris signs are popping up all over my neighborhood. Maybe that would have happened too if Biden had stayed in the race but I doubt it. There wasn’t much excitement for him, even here in The Nation’s Capital

[Duke of York]

Everyone I know is talking about Harris and where she and Walz are going. haven't seen that since Obama 08.

[UNL]

People seem to be more energized overall since Biden dropped out. There were also a good amount more distinctly pro-Trump signs at this point in 2020 than in 2024. I think there’s just less turnout than 2020 across the board but the drop has been less than it would’ve been with Biden. There’s actually a decent number of signs for local candidates (as is usual in my experience) than national ones.

[Mehmentum]

I wanted to see what Atlas has been seeing among their less political/undecided friends/family, in terms of yard signs, etc. while minor, these things can be interesting bits of information.

On my end I haven’t seen much change, I know one former Biden->Trump voter (tankie) but nobody else has changed their mind. Can’t say anything about yard signs since I live in a different area. I will say social media seems a little less overwhelmingly pro Trump than 2020 and 2016.

About the social media thing, it's easy to measure it.

For example on Google Trends Trump is back to his usual interest advantage, as interest in politics has declined since the "summer of madness".

Okay, but has it, though?  I went ahead and compared google trends data to previous years.  Here are the ratios in search interest for the candidates, week by week:



Harris is actually performing significantly better than Clinton or Biden did vs Trump at the same points in 2016 and 2020.  In fact, Harris is doing better than Biden did any week of his campaign, and better than all but 2 of Clinton's weeks.  That week in September was actually bad for Clinton- she made the basketful of deplorables comment and then it came out that she had pneumonia.

Search attention can be both positive and negative. For both Clinton in 2016 and Trump in every race, much of their search traffic was negative.  Harris 2024 and Biden 2020 probably have a better ratio of positive:negative search interest.  So that Harris is beating both Biden and the scandal plagued Clinton would be a good sign if google search interest is a sign of anything.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Anecdotally, Republicans are Republicans and Democrats are Democrats.

The few disaffected and disengaged people in my life definitely view this election as “Can we stop the Trump stuff now and move on as a country,” which they weren’t when Biden was around, which tells me everything about where this is headed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I said previously that I was seeing more Trump flags than Harris flags or signs, but then I remembered how Republican my town is.

In neighboring, bluer towns there are Harris signs everywhere, many emphasizing the "Madame President" angle.

[पिकाचु]

My mom's acquaintance is voting for trump bc she thinks that kamala betrayed her Tamil Brahmin roots, but a relative who is kinda anti-black (really hates obama) loves her and sees her as 'one of us' so mixed signs on the Indian-American vote.

Interesting, by any chance do you know how they may have voted in 2020?

Definitely both Biden voters but I don't think either is a loyal Democrat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

People at my college definitely seem more motivated to vote now that Harris is the nominee - but not sure how many of these people would've just sat the election out if Biden was the nominee.

[October Choke Artist]

I had one Biden sign in my ca district 49 neighborhood of 200 houses in 2020 and 0 now. There are occasional Trump trucks with flags flying. A very visible house right next to the ocean has a massive trump flag and American flag that is visible to all passerbys. It is the most visible location in my city with a lot of foot traffic as it's by a walk path next to the ocean. I sometimes wear a Vivek ramaswamy t shirt when I go jogging in the morning.

In 2022 there were a lot of Maryott signs. But I've never seen a Levin sign. No one ever talks politics in public. Levin only won my district by 5 points in 2022. Pretty close for California. But I think Levin wins again.

I have seen 0 Harris signs in my entire city of over 100,000 and 0 in neighboring cities

[Crumpets]

I think we've had these in the past, and if one already exists, let me know and I can just bump that one.

Starting out, I visited the Delmarva peninsula last weekend and was really surprised at the number of Trump signs I saw there. Knowing Joe Biden overperformed there in 2020, I'm tempted to think that might have been a fluke based on him being a Senator from Delaware, even in non-Delaware areas.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Libertarian-Conservative friend of mine who was previously considering voting for RFK Jr. says he plans not to vote because he deeply dislikes Trump and Harris, though he would vote Trump if he did vote (when I asked him about possibly voting Oliver he seemed to be inclined to vote more against Harris if he was voting)

[Gass3268]

Pretty even balance of signs here where I live in Lake County, which makes sense given I live in a swingy area in the county.

Diving to Madison, Wisconsin I saw a bunch of Hovde/Trump signs between Milwaukee and Madison, which isn't shocking (these same farms always have Republican signs). What was a pleasant surprise was the number of Baldwin signs by farmers that I usually don't see signs for.

[Randy Marsh]

Uber drivers seem to mostly favor Trump now, even people of color

[VALibertarian]

Very anecdotal but I know a few family members - (3-5) people range who spoke pretty well about RFK earlier this year and now are committed to Trump. On the flipside, 2 Biden voter family members are committed to voting Harris.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Merged new thread with existing one.

So far I haven't seen too many yard signs, mostly Trump signs at places that have always had them, but I was surprised to drive past a large property in an upscale section of Milton (north Fulton County) with a line of Harris/Walz signs along the road.

[MasterJedi]

Lots of big Trump signs up and down highway 57 in Ozaukee county. But they’re always there year round basically. Rural farmers and business owners where the real change is happening in the cities and towns boarding Milwaukee county and in Port Washington.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

A "friend" of mine from childhood reached out to me a few months back when he saw I was on Instagram. This person is an utter loser; he always had terrible grades, wore camouflage jackets and backpacks to school, played Magic: The Gathering religiously, constantly complained about his stepmom, showed zero initiative or effort at every job he ever had, idolized the military despite being reflexively antagonistic to all authority figures, and never took any personal responsibility for his academic or personal failings, choosing instead to blame his teachers and family members for conspiring against him. After many years of hoping he'd improve, I finally cut him loose after high school when he was sentenced to jail time for statutory rape and possession of child porn. Even during that period, he would ramble incoherently about how the judge, the police, and the girl's parents were in some kind of conspiracy to frame him for his mentally disabled brother's actions (while of course offering no evidence whatsoever for this theory). When I briefly talked to him recently, he went on a tirade about the criminality of the Democratic Party, all while glossing over the fact that he is a literal pedophile.

Take a wild guess as to who this person is supporting in this election. This scumbag is representative of basically every Trump supporter: a delusional failure who cannot cope with reality.