Day 24: North Slope Borough, AK

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

link to previous

This is the northernmost county equivalent in the county. The largest city is Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, which is probably one of the better known Alaskan bush towns and one of the oldest towns in the United States. It is majority Alaskan Native, largely Iñupiat, but with a substantial white minority. It has an economy which is dependent on oil.

It has an unusual voting history, voting for McCain (by a smallish margin), Obama (by a huge landslide), Clinton (by a large plurality, with a huge 3rd party vote) and then Trump (by a small plurality). It swung towards Trump, much like a lot of bush communities in Alaska.

[seskoog]

No idea.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Going to go with Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

AK can have some really weird dynamics and this place has a pretty small population

Another weird quirk of this County is the Native areas were actually more Trump favorable than the non-Native areas in 2020, but in 2022 Peltola obviously cooked here with 76% of the RCV vote.

I wonder if how Peltola campaigns might make the difference - she seems to have decent connection/influence to these Native Communities which unlike many other states, are a big swing voting block in AK. If she actively distances herself from Harris and runs a whole "moderate hero" thing, it may influence more of these folks to vote Peltola-Trump, and vise-versa.

This is really just a wild stab but I'll say Trump because of some niche local issue I've never heard about.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Does anyone stationed at Prudhoe Bay vote here? That could play a role.

Guessed Harris because of Peltola's massive coattails.

[Oryxslayer]

Historically, there is no such thing as reverse coattails. However, the Alaskan bush is so remote, and there is only one race that is going to be spending money and pushing for voters to turnout, that you have to wonder. There had seemingly been an in-migration of oil workers in recent years, which would make it better for the GOP, but the census estimates say some of the boom has dissipated though TBH I don't trust the estimates in most places.

I don't know how such a remote place will vote, and that's my final answer. Though if you absolutely forced me to throw a dart I'd say Harris because the Peltola campaign will be focusing on getting out every native vote that exists, and the blanket primary vote for her was something like 60% Dem in the Borough a few weeks ago.

Also, if you're are diving real deep into local stuff that can influence remote voters, there was a popular GOP-aligned Indie who won here in 2020, despite the district being more blue that the north slope. However, that Indie became mayor, and his appointed GOP-aligned replacement has seemingly become unpopular according to locals on the socials. He finished in third behind two Dems, and underperformed the combined GOP votes in HD40.

Does anyone stationed at Prudhoe Bay vote here? That could play a role.

DRA block estimates say no, <50 votes for >1K people in 2020. Though the votes could have just ended up scattered through mail allocation, its an imperfect science.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Historically, there is no such thing as reverse coattails. However, the Alaskan bush is so remote, and there is only one race that is going to be spending money and pushing for voters to turnout. There had seemingly been an in-migration of oil workers in recent years, which would make it better for the GOP, but the census estimates say some of the boom has dissipated though TBH I don't trust those numbers.

I don't know how such a remote place will vote, and that's my final answer. Though if you absolutely forced me to throw a dart I'd say Harris because the Peltola campaign will be focusing on getting out every native vote that exists, and the blanket primary vote was something like 60-40 Dem in the Borough a few weeks ago.

Switching my vote to Harris on basis of this.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

I'm gonna say the combination of Peltola on the ballot and Trump fatigue puts Harris over the top. I've actually been to Barrow. It's truly a wretched place; no foliage anywhere, the roads are all just gritty black sand, and the beaches are covered in trash. It's like a landfill at the edge of the world.

[Spectator]

Peltola will get over 60% here like she did in 2022 and the 2024 primary, so maybe a rare instance of her driving Native turnout and identity for the Harris upballot.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Does anyone know where to get Alaska data by borough? I have a map of the accuracy of atlas county predictions all ready except for this.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Does anyone know where to get Alaska data by borough? I have a map of the accuracy of atlas county predictions all ready except for this.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1859659773421158498