Kennedy picks Humphrey in 1960

[Reluctant Republican]

Hey all. I’ve been wondering about 1964 recently and hope you’ll all be willing to entertain a scenario for me.

In 1960, Nixon gets the nomination and picks Lodge for his running mate. Kennedy also gets the nomination, but picks Hubert Humphrey as his VP. Let’s say that due to a gaffe on Nixon’s part, Kennedy still wins narrowly. Kennedy still dies, leaving Humphrey as president, but everything before and after his assassination stays the same, meaning the civil rights act is still proposed, and passed. Humphrey decides to run in 1964, and picks Oregon senator Wayne Morse as his running mate. Goldwater gets the nod on the Republican side, and picks Bill Miller as his running mate. [I doubt he would do this, but this goes with the question I’m about to ask.]

I’ve always wondered how much better Goldwater would if the civil rights act still passed and there was no southerner on the Democratic ticket. Obviously, Goldwater’s not going to win, but in this scenario, how much would he improve on his RL performance? Could he sweep the south, and would there be any other areas of the country [besides Arizona] where he would have a chance at winning a state? Thanks.

[Lincoln Republican]

Goldwater does better against the very liberal Humphrey than he did against the more moderate Johnson.

Goldwater is able to do well in the south, and is able to hold on to many traditionally conservative states.

Still a big win for Humphrey.

Humphrey/Morse                       415
Goldwater/Miller                         123

[Reluctant Republican]

Thanks for your response, I appreciate it. One more question for you, if your up to answering. Goldwater only picked Miller to anger Johnson. Without him on the ticket, who do you think Goldwater picks, and does it help at all? I lean for Scranton, but I'm not sure that would have made PA go GOP. What do you think?

[Lincoln Republican]

That's true about Miller.  Congressman William E. Miller was a Catholic from upstate New York, and this therefore provided, Goldwater believed, geographic and ethnic balance to the ticket.

Miller had a reputation as a skilled and quick debater, and one who could provoke outbursts from his opponents, and  who, Goldwater thought, would put Johnson and Humphrey on the defensive.

But, during the campaign, Miller was unable to put Johnson and Humphrey off balance.

Governor William Scranton of Pennsylvania had let it be known that he would accept the Vice Presidential nomination in 1964.  He later allowed a campaign to draft him for the Presidential nomination.  I do not believe that Goldwater and Scranton would have made a very cohesive team, as there were obvious and fundamental ideological differences between the two.  Had Scranton been on the ticket in 1964, this would not have the changed the results, and the Republicans would not have won Pennsylvania, or any other moderate state, I do not believe.  Goldwater, the Presidential nominee, the one at the top of the ticket, was simply too unacceptable to most of the country in 1964, and that combined with the fact he was running against the new President who came to office after the tragic assassination of the former President, spelled doom for the Republicans in 1964.

A name I have come up with that I believe would have made a suitable running mate for Goldwater would be Senator John J Williams of Delaware.  Williams, then age 60, he had the maturity, had been serving in the U.S. Senate since 1947, he had the necessary credentials and experience.  Williams had a reputation as an opponent of government waste and bureaucracy, and for rooting out corruption in the Internal Revenue Service.

Another possibility I was thinking of for Vice President would have been Senator Thruston B Morton, age 57, of Kentucky.  He had been a member of the House of Representatives 1947-1953, and a U.S. Senator since 1957.  He was a moderate Republican who voted for the Civil Rights Rights Act of 1964. 

I am not sure, however, that either of these two Senators would have accepted the Vice Presidential nomination, surely knowing they would be headed for a big defeat in the election.

Actually, in my humble opinion, I believe that Senator John J Williams of Delaware would have been a good pick for Vice President for Richard Nixon in 1960.  There has been much discussion that Henry Cabot Lodge was not the best pick Nixon could have made in 1960, although Nixon believed in 1960 that the Republicans could only win the Presidential election if the election was fought on foreign policy, not domestic policy, and Lodge had been a U.S. Senator and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. 1953-60. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Humphrey/Morse: 458
Goldwater/Miller: 80

[gorkay]

I don't think there would have been much if any difference in the EV with Humphrey running in '64. He would have gotten the same Kennedy sympathy vote that LBJ did. I also question whether, by 1964, he would have been seen as being much if any more liberal than Johnson.

The question of who Humphrey would have picked as a running mate is an interesting one. I don't think it would have been Morse... he was too much of a maverick, and I think he may already have been voicing disagreement with administration foreign policy. The only region in which Humphrey looked to be weak was the south, so perhaps he would have chosen a moderate southerner... Symington, maybe?

Lodge and Miller, IMO, were both poor choices. I think Goldwater was afraid that if he picked Scranton, there would be too much talk about how divergent his views were from Goldwater's, and of the criticisms they leveled at each other during the nomination campaign. I'm not sure Goldwater was too wild about Scranton stepping in at the eleventh hour to try and get the nomination, either. Another possible factor: one of the only logical reasons Scranton would have set himself up for direct involvement in the 1964 Republican debacle was to prove his party loyalty and thus set himself up for future campaigns. Could be that Goldwater didn't want to give him that kind of aid.

I've read that the only thing Miller did during the campaign was drink with the press corps on the bus.

[glm15jul]

You were mentioning that everything stays the same as in real time except that JFK selects Senator Humphrey in 1960 instead of LBJ.   Generally, Humphrey, being on the democratic ticket,  would still win the 1964 election with the main reason being a contiuation of President Kennedy's policies, just like it happened in real time.  But... you mentioned that JFK still dies. The question is "Does he?".   With Humphrey as his vice president since January 20, 1961, there would be no need for Kennedy to go to Texas and try to attempt to "mend the democratic fences in Texas", as he had to do with LBJ on the ticket.  Senator Johnson would still be majority leader in the Senate, and seeing that it was difficult for President Kennedy to get any of his agenda passed in Congress, it still would be with Johnson still in the Senate.  With Humphrey as vice president, President Kennedy would not have been in Texas on November 22, 1963 and that date would not be a historical one today.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

You were mentioning that everything stays the same as in real time except that JFK selects Senator Humphrey in 1960 instead of LBJ.   Generally, Humphrey, being on the democratic ticket,  would still win the 1964 election with the main reason being a contiuation of President Kennedy's policies, just like it happened in real time.  But... you mentioned that JFK still dies. The question is "Does he?".   With Humphrey as his vice president since January 20, 1961, there would be no need for Kennedy to go to Texas and try to attempt to "mend the democratic fences in Texas", as he had to do with LBJ on the ticket.  Senator Johnson would still be majority leader in the Senate, and seeing that it was difficult for President Kennedy to get any of his agenda passed in Congress, it still would be with Johnson still in the Senate.  With Humphrey as vice president, President Kennedy would not have been in Texas on November 22, 1963 and that date would not be a historical one today.

For these scenarios, you shouldn't think too deeply into them. Let's just say that Kennedy is assassinated in 1963.

[glm15jul]

You were mentioning that everything stays the same as in real time except that JFK selects Senator Humphrey in 1960 instead of LBJ.   Generally, Humphrey, being on the democratic ticket,  would still win the 1964 election with the main reason being a contiuation of President Kennedy's policies, just like it happened in real time.  But... you mentioned that JFK still dies. The question is "Does he?".   With Humphrey as his vice president since January 20, 1961, there would be no need for Kennedy to go to Texas and try to attempt to "mend the democratic fences in Texas", as he had to do with LBJ on the ticket.  Senator Johnson would still be majority leader in the Senate, and seeing that it was difficult for President Kennedy to get any of his agenda passed in Congress, it still would be with Johnson still in the Senate.  With Humphrey as vice president, President Kennedy would not have been in Texas on November 22, 1963 and that date would not be a historical one today.

For these scenarios, you shouldn't think too deeply into them. Let's just say that Kennedy is assassinated in 1963.

  Thank you for commenting the other night on my thoughts concerning RFK vs. Nixon in 1968 by saying it was "an interesting thread."  I appreciate that. In answer to this post, I thank you again.  I am thinking too deep, at times, and promise to "lighten up".    I am working on a JFK timeline that he serves two terms (1961-1969), and lists his accomplishments and shortcomings, but do it in such a way that it actually happened in real time, but then ask the question "what if he was assassinated prior to the 1964 election.  I hope you will read what I will write and comment on this.  Thank you.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I'm always looking for new timelines to read and hope that the one you're working on will be interesting.

[glm15jul]

I'm always looking for new timelines to read and hope that the one you're working on will be interesting.

Thank you.  I will start releasing the segments tonight.