2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

Ah, an interesting tidbit from a pollster...
The discussion about cooperation etc with the Left does not directly hurt the SPD in the sense of voters going over from it to the CDU. But it did help the CDU win voters - elderly Working Class Tories mostly, to use the British phrase - who might otherwise have stayed home. Although it's hard to tell apart disgust at the SPD for perhaps contemplating governing with "communists", and disgust at the German people in general for voting for "communists".

[Franzl]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

KPÖ 88.4
Greens 82.1
SPÖ 65.2
BZÖ 38.7
ÖVP 33.8
FPÖ 31.9

I´m interested in how some of the US guys on here would vote in Austria. I spent half an hour translating the questions and (nearly) nobody bothers to take the test ...

I took the test at the original website. don't remember the exact numbers, but the order was:

BZÖ
FPÖ
ÖVP
SPÖ
Grüne
KPÖ

[Franzl]

The 25 questions are:

Children, Youth and Education

1 - Do you support creating a seperate subject "Political Education" in Lower Austrian schools (instead of being a part of History classes) ? YES

2 - Do you support the introduction of a comprehensive school system in Lower Austria (instead of various types of schools, where parents/children decide to go) ? NO

3 - Do you support that the state government pays for tuition fees to increase the share of students ? NO

4 - Do you support the promotion of child day care centers to support single parents and working parents ? YES

5 - Do you support tougher penalties for criminal juveniles ? YES

Welfare and Community

6 - Do you support expanding the construction/benefits of apartments for people who cannot afford it ? NO

7- Do you support a statewide basic income ? ABSOLUTELY NO

State Security, Integration and Migration

8 - Do you think the state should demand more police officers and personell from the federal Ministry of Interior to tackle local crime ? YES

9 - Do you think that asylum seekers should receive a labor permit immediately ? NO

10 - Do you think the state should allow illegal foreigners who already lived here for quite some time and who are fully integrated in society to stay for humanitarian reasons ? NO

11 - Do you support releasing criminal records of asylum seekers to the public ? YES

Economy

12 - Do you think the state should support indebted companies with taxpayers' money ? NO

13 - Do you think the state energy company (EVN) should be fully privatized (the state should sell its current shares in the company) ? YES

14 - Do you think the penalties for clandestine employment should be raised ? YES

Democracy and State Constitution

15 - Do you think the current proportional election system should be replaced with a majority voting system ? well, kind of, I guess YES

16 - Do you think that foreigners without citizenship should get active and passive statewide voting rights after a period of time ? ABSOLUTELY NO

17 - Do you think that accepted religious communities should get the same financial benefits as the Christian community ? NO

Environment, Mobility and Infrastructure

18 - Do you think that biological agriculture subsidies should be increased by the state ? NO

19 - Do you think that alternative energy benefits should be increased by the state ? NO

20 - Do you think that on days with high particulate matter emmissions, speed limits should be implemented ? living in Germany, I value high speeds, so NO

21 - Do you think prices for public transport systems should be based on the income of passengers ? NO, NO and NO

Society, Culture and Media

22 - Do you think homosexual couples should be allowed to become foster parents ? NO

23 - Do you think abortion costs should be covered by universal health care ? I think abortion should be illegal, so NO

24 - Do you support that more qualified women than men should be accepted into the state civil servants sector to achieve a higher share of women in that sector (affirmative action) ? NO!!

25 - Do you think alternative arts should be funded by state government ? NO

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hesse: Chances for a SPD/Green minority government, which would be tolerated by the Left, have increased. It's now sort of a official back-up plan. For the time being, the SPD still seeks a coalition with the Greens and the FDP or with the CDU... let's see for how long.

Hamburg: CDU prefers a coalition with the Greens. However, the Greens seem to be somewhat reluctant. If this fails, the most likely outcome would be a Grand coalition (a cooperation between the SPD and the Left in Hamburg is far less likely than in Hesse).


Ah, and I will take that Austria test as soon as I have the time.

[Bono]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

KPÖ 88.4
Greens 82.1
SPÖ 65.2
BZÖ 38.7
ÖVP 33.8
FPÖ 31.9

I´m interested in how some of the US guys on here would vote in Austria. I spent half an hour translating the questions and (nearly) nobody bothers to take the test ...

Fear not, here are my results and answers:

Children, Youth and Education

1 - Do you support creating a seperate subject "Political Education" in Lower Austrian schools (instead of being a part of History classes) ? Frankly, I could care less, so I was tempted to answer I don't know, but since it most likely will be an indoctrination attempt I'll vote no with low priority.

2 - Do you support the introduction of a comprehensive school system in Lower Austria (instead of various types of schools, where parents/children decide to go) ? No

3 - Do you support that the state government pays for tuition fees to increase the share of students ? I'm not sure I understand this, but if it's about higher eduication, then no.

4 - Do you support the promotion of child day care centers to support single parents and working parents ? No

5 - Do you support tougher penalties for criminal juveniles ? YES!!

Welfare and Community

6 - Do you support expanding the construction/benefits of apartments for people who cannot afford it ? No

7- Do you support a statewide basic income ? NO!!!

State Security, Integration and Migration

8 - Do you think the state should demand more police officers and personell from the federal Ministry of Interior to tackle local crime ? Unsure, since I don't know how the crime situation there is/b]

9 - Do you think that asylum seekers should receive a labor permit immediately ? Unsureb]

10 - Do you think the state should allow illegal foreigners who already lived here for quite some time and who are fully integrated in society to stay for humanitarian reasons ? No

11 - Do you support releasing criminal records of asylum seekers to the public ? Unsure

Economy

12 - Do you think the state should support indebted companies with taxpayers' money ? NO!!

13 - Do you think the state energy company (EVN) should be fully privatized (the state should sell its current shares in the company) ? YES!!

14 - Do you think the penalties for clandestine employment should be raised ? No

Democracy and State Constitution

15 - Do you think the current proportional election system should be replaced with a majority voting system ? Yep

16 - Do you think that foreigners without citizenship should get active and passive statewide voting rights after a period of time ? Nop, though I don't know what passive voting rights are

17 - Do you think that accepted religious communities should get the same financial benefits as the Christian community ? Yes

Environment, Mobility and Infrastructure

18 - Do you think that biological agriculture subsidies should be increased by the state ? No

19 - Do you think that alternative energy benefits should be increased by the state ? No

20 - Do you think that on days with high particulate matter emmissions, speed limits should be implemented ? No

21 - Do you think prices for public transport systems should be based on the income of passengers ? Absolutely not

Society, Culture and Media

22 - Do you think homosexual couples should be allowed to become foster parents ? Unsure

23 - Do you think abortion costs should be covered by universal health care ? NO

24 - Do you support that more qualified women than men should be accepted into the state civil servants sector to achieve a higher share of women in that sector (affirmative action) ? NO WAY!

25 - Do you think alternative arts should be funded by state government ? Nop, but neither should mainstream arts

FPÖ: 57.5%
BZÖ: 54.2%
ÖVP: 42.0%
KPÖ: 15.2%
Greens: 9.3%
SPÖ: 7.1%

Can you clear up what the symbols in the analysis section mean?

[Verily]

I'm a Communist

KPO: 56.6%     
Green: 54.9%    
SDP: 54.2%    
OVP: 46.3%    
FPO: 37.5%    
BZO: 37.3%

But I don't have any strong preference for any of them, as you can see. And I wasn't sure I was understanding some of the questions.

[Jens]

Hesse: Chances for a SPD/Green minority government, which would be tolerated by the Left, have increased. It's now sort of a official back-up plan. For the time being, the SPD still seeks a coalition with the Greens and the FDP or with the CDU... let's see for how long.

Hamburg: CDU prefers a coalition with the Greens. However, the Greens seem to be somewhat reluctant. If this fails, the most likely outcome would be a Grand coalition (a cooperation between the SPD and the Left in Hamburg is far less likely than in Hesse).


Ah, and I will take that Austria test as soon as I have the time.

humm, the Danish comments I have read are pretty sure that the Greens will coorporate with CDU - They basically think that SPD, Linke and Greens can't work together (I personally don't know why not!)

[minionofmidas]

Hesse: Chances for a SPD/Green minority government, which would be tolerated by the Left, have increased. It's now sort of a official back-up plan. For the time being, the SPD still seeks a coalition with the Greens and the FDP or with the CDU... let's see for how long.

Hamburg: CDU prefers a coalition with the Greens. However, the Greens seem to be somewhat reluctant. If this fails, the most likely outcome would be a Grand coalition (a cooperation between the SPD and the Left in Hamburg is far less likely than in Hesse).


Ah, and I will take that Austria test as soon as I have the time.

humm, the Danish comments I have read are pretty sure that the Greens will coorporate with CDU - They basically think that SPD, Linke and Greens can't work together (I personally don't know why not!)

There's a strong popular perception of the CDU having won the election in Hamburg. And as late as ten years ago, cooperating with the Greens was a hard sell to parts of the Hamburg SPD (and vice versa - which doesn't bode too well for Black-Green either.)
Basically, the media and the CDU are saying it'll be Black-Green, because neither the media nor the CDU want yet another Grand Coalition. The Greens' opinions are not, at this point, taken into account.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Map of Communist-occupied territory in Germany :

[Jens]

Map of Communist-occupied territory in Germany :

And Saarland is next. I wonder how well Linke wil do there, given it is Lafontaine's home area.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Saarland is next. I wonder how well Linke wil do there, given it is Lafontaine's home area.

No, they're going to landslide Bavaria first... well, not really.

A double-digit result in Saarland seems possible (if not likely) though.

[minionofmidas]

And Saarland is next. I wonder how well Linke wil do there, given it is Lafontaine's home area.

No, they're going to landslide Bavaria first... well, not really.

A double-digit result in Saarland seems possible (if not likely) though.

The correct wording is "likely (if not certain)", actually.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Saarland is next. I wonder how well Linke wil do there, given it is Lafontaine's home area.

No, they're going to landslide Bavaria first... well, not really.

A double-digit result in Saarland seems possible (if not likely) though.

The correct wording is "likely (if not certain)", actually.

[Tender Branson]

Don't you wish the FPO could collapse like the FN did in France?

Of course I would like to see that happening, but currently it´s very unlikely.

Rumors are that snap elections will now take place in the fall, after the EURO 2008. Both parties will likely run with new front-runners, because the current leaders have 20% approval ratings.

The ÖVP will likely choose Josef Pröll, currently Minister of Agriculture and nephew of popular Lower Austria governor Erwin Pröll as front-runner.

The Social Democrats are likely to ask the governor of Salzburg (where I live) - Gabriele Burgstaller - to run. I don´t know how likely this is, because she has said that she´ll stay in Salzburg for the 2009 state elections. But if she decides to enter federal politics, she would be a strong candidate.

I could see the following results if the parties are led by these 2 candidates:

SPÖ - 32%, ÖVP - 30%, Greens - 16%, FPÖ - 16%, BZÖ - 5%, KPÖ - 1%

It´s rumored that the ÖVP will call early elections for May 18, after a decisive Lower Austria state election win next Sunday. Both parties are deep into scandals right now and in a coalition stalemate. New polls show a big slump for the Conservatives and the Social Democrats.

New Gallup poll (change since Oct. 2006 election):
 
ÖVP: 31% (-3.5)
SPÖ: 29% (-6.5)
Greens: 17% (+6)
FPÖ: 15% (+4)
BZÖ: 6% (+2)
Others: 2% (-2)

http://www.oe24.at/zeitung/oesterreich/politik/article250136.ece

Also: Austrians want leadership change - in both parties. Josef Pröll for the ÖVP and the governor of my state, Gabriele Burgstaller, for the SPÖ.

If new elections will take place, I will once again vote for the Greens - currently the only sane party in Austria.

I also expect turnout to plunge to 70%, because most people are seriously pissed right now.

[Tender Branson]

And Saarland is next. I wonder how well Linke wil do there, given it is Lafontaine's home area.

6 new Emnid state polls + 1 poll for Germany's federal elections:

Saarland:

CDU: 40%
SPD: 25%
Left Party: 19%
Greens: 7%
FDP: 6%

Thuringia:

CDU: 36%
Left Party: 25%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 5%
Greens: 4%

Brandenburg:

SPD: 38%
Left Party: 26%
CDU: 22%
Greens: 4%
FDP: 4%
DVU: 1%

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Bavaria:

CSU: 51%
SPD: 19%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 6%
Left Party: 4%

North Rhine-Westphalia:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 32%
Left Party: 8%
Greens: 8%
FDP: 8%

Germany:

CDU: 36%
SPD: 27%
Left Party: 14%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 9%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And today are local elections in Bavaria.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

What headlines/poll?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

What headlines/poll?

Wasn't there that poll that had the NPD leading the SPD last autumn? I remember someone posting that here. I think.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

What headlines/poll?

Wasn't there that poll that had the NPD leading the SPD last autumn? I remember someone posting that here. I think.

Ah, that's right, I just looked it up. But I don't think it has anything to do with it.

That poll was something of an outlier anyway... well, it was from the Forsa, who drastically underpoll the SPD most of the time. Sort of a German version of ARG.   An Infratest poll released six days after that infamous Forsa poll had the SPD at 12% and the NPD at 6%... and a poll from the "Leipziger Institut für Marktforschung" released a week prior to the Forsa poll had very similar numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Saxony:

CDU: 41%
Left Party: 22%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
NPD: 4%

Anything to do with those headlines following that poll last year?

What headlines/poll?

Wasn't there that poll that had the NPD leading the SPD last autumn? I remember someone posting that here. I think.

What´s next ? Nazis 15% SPD 7% ... ?

Good to see it's the opposite way ...

[BenNebbich]

And today are local elections in Bavaria.

you can get the numbers of landshut first here on the forum.

[BenNebbich]

csu down 6 seats; greens up 3 seats in the city council.

well done landshut!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

csu down 6 seats; greens up 3 seats in the city council.

well done landshut!

Was this expected? And what's Landshut like?

[Hash]

Any site for Bavarian local election results?