Day 4: Rockingham County, NH
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Day 4: Rockingham County, NH		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Day 4: Rockingham County, NH  (Read 644 times)
Fascism Must Be Defeated
Sol
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« on: August 13, 2024, 12:36:42 PM »
link to the previous topic

This is one of New Hampshire's more populated counties along the border with Massachusetts. It's fairly polarized between Portsmouth, which is an ex-industrial and increasingly gentrified small city along the coast, and the interior, which is largely right-leaning Boston exurbia. Biden was the first Dem to win it on the presidential level since Obama in 2008.
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TuberMan
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2024, 03:05:01 PM »
I think Trump would've won it against Biden, but Harris will carry it now.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2024, 10:50:39 PM »
Sticks with Harris and would probably rate as Lean D - a lot is going wrong for federal Republicans here under Trump - migration is increasingly favorable to Dems, you have a high college attainment rate, relatively secular. This also is a place where the Dem base tends to be pretty reliable about turning out. Would honestly be pretty surprised if it flips back to Trump.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2024, 10:52:10 PM »
Lean Harris.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2024, 07:03:30 AM »
Safe Harris. Dread it, run from it, safe D NH arrives all the same
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Rhode Islander First, American Second
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2024, 11:08:23 PM »
I think the NH county that is the biggest question mark is Sullivan or maybe Carroll.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2024, 10:11:18 PM »
Trump flipped this county back after all.
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インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2024, 10:14:35 PM »
Quote from: Thunder98 on December 05, 2024, 10:11:18 PM
Trump flipped this county back after all.
Wow. It even was won by Trump by a bigger margin than it was won by Biden in 2020.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2024, 10:15:58 PM »
Quote from: Thunder98 on December 05, 2024, 10:11:18 PM
Trump flipped this county back after all.

Definitely a surpise (I rated it as Lean D earlier in this thread) - not out of palce given the rest of the northeast results though.

Looking at precinct level results, it seems like Trump got his strongest swings in precincts along the MA border interestingly enough. I wonder if "fear of Massachusetts" marginally helped Trump here.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2024, 10:19:39 PM »
NH being anti-incumbency might be a true theory for the Presidential level at least.
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He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few
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« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2024, 10:24:36 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on December 05, 2024, 10:15:58 PM
Quote from: Thunder98 on December 05, 2024, 10:11:18 PM
Trump flipped this county back after all.

Definitely a surpise (I rated it as Lean D earlier in this thread) - not out of palce given the rest of the northeast results though.

Looking at precinct level results, it seems like Trump got his strongest swings in precincts along the MA border interestingly enough. I wonder if "fear of Massachusetts" marginally helped Trump here.

Quote from: Remain in hell without despair on November 30, 2024, 11:32:07 PM
Well, a lot of New Hampshire Republicans are Massachusetts, but they think it's a meaningful identity category to hate "Taxachusetts" and not wear motorcycle helmets.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2024, 02:13:26 AM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on December 05, 2024, 10:19:39 PM
NH being anti-incumbency might be a true theory for the Presidential level at least.

I would honestly be willing to buy this except that Harris did p decently. NH still trended Dem + Harris held onto both CD's.
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