Who wins Gen Z white men?

[Spectator]

Just for clarification, Gen Z White women =/= Gen Z women.

Still, though. In a competitive election, I see Gen Z probably being similar to millennials, about 60-40.
For Millennials, I can see white men being 60-40 R and white women being 60-40D. It' probably more like 35-65 R and 65-35 D for white gen Zers. For non-white gen zers, I could see something like 55-45 D for men and like 80-20 D for non-white women.

If Harris loses anything other than white men for voters under 44, she will lose.

Gen Z males are more conservative than Millenial males? I guess I could see it, just weird lol. That goes aganist the demographics narrative of the last 20 years

I’d be shocked if Republicans got more than 5% among non-white female Gen Zers

They certainly get above 5% - my guess would be more like 80D - 15R in a normal election.

Hmm idk, black women are 99% D or something and Hispanic women when they vote are basically the entire reason Hispanics lean solidly D.

On another note, our original bet is off now that Biden dropped out, but I’m happy to bet on Trump winning NC-01 by over 5% if you are willing to take that replacement offer. $20?

Gen Z Hispanics + Asians pretty heavily outnumber Gen Z blacks. Let's just say for argument's sake Gen Z black women vote 100% Dem, then even if Hispanic/Asian Gen Z women vote 80% Dem, that would even out to like 88% Dem at best.

As for the bet let me sleep on it - also for NY-17 would you be willing to do an over/under Kamala + 2 or something?

I’d be good with that. Not confident at all on NY, but NC-01 should give me a buffer.

[TML]

According to CNN's 2020 exit polls, which has some group filters, Biden won men under 30 by 52-41, but Trump won Whites under 30 by 53-44. My best guess is that Trump won white men under 30 in 2020, so it is likely that he would win young white men again in 2024.

[LabourJersey]

According to National Election Pool's exit polling from 2020 (found via Wikipedia), Trump won whites under 30 years old by nine points - 53% to 44%.

This suggests that Trump won white men under 30 by a decent amount, according for the gender gap.

Based on that, he'll almost certainly win this demographic again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just for clarification, Gen Z White women =/= Gen Z women.

Still, though. In a competitive election, I see Gen Z probably being similar to millennials, about 60-40.
For Millennials, I can see white men being 60-40 R and white women being 60-40D. It' probably more like 35-65 R and 65-35 D for white gen Zers. For non-white gen zers, I could see something like 55-45 D for men and like 80-20 D for non-white women.

If Harris loses anything other than white men for voters under 44, she will lose.

Gen Z males are more conservative than Millenial males? I guess I could see it, just weird lol. That goes aganist the demographics narrative of the last 20 years

I’d be shocked if Republicans got more than 5% among non-white female Gen Zers

They certainly get above 5% - my guess would be more like 80D - 15R in a normal election.

Hmm idk, black women are 99% D or something and Hispanic women when they vote are basically the entire reason Hispanics lean solidly D.

On another note, our original bet is off now that Biden dropped out, but I’m happy to bet on Trump winning NC-01 by over 5% if you are willing to take that replacement offer. $20?

Gen Z Hispanics + Asians pretty heavily outnumber Gen Z blacks. Let's just say for argument's sake Gen Z black women vote 100% Dem, then even if Hispanic/Asian Gen Z women vote 80% Dem, that would even out to like 88% Dem at best.

As for the bet let me sleep on it - also for NY-17 would you be willing to do an over/under Kamala + 2 or something?

I’d be good with that. Not confident at all on NY, but NC-01 should give me a buffer.

Ok deal, NC-01 is over/under Trump + 5, NY-17 over/under Harris + 2, for $20 each.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just for clarification, Gen Z White women =/= Gen Z women.

Still, though. In a competitive election, I see Gen Z probably being similar to millennials, about 60-40.
For Millennials, I can see white men being 60-40 R and white women being 60-40D. It' probably more like 35-65 R and 65-35 D for white gen Zers. For non-white gen zers, I could see something like 55-45 D for men and like 80-20 D for non-white women.

If Harris loses anything other than white men for voters under 44, she will lose.

Gen Z males are more conservative than Millenial males? I guess I could see it, just weird lol. That goes aganist the demographics narrative of the last 20 years

I’d be shocked if Republicans got more than 5% among non-white female Gen Zers

They certainly get above 5% - my guess would be more like 80D - 15R in a normal election.

Hmm idk, black women are 99% D or something and Hispanic women when they vote are basically the entire reason Hispanics lean solidly D.

On another note, our original bet is off now that Biden dropped out, but I’m happy to bet on Trump winning NC-01 by over 5% if you are willing to take that replacement offer. $20?

Gen Z Hispanics + Asians pretty heavily outnumber Gen Z blacks. Let's just say for argument's sake Gen Z black women vote 100% Dem, then even if Hispanic/Asian Gen Z women vote 80% Dem, that would even out to like 88% Dem at best.

As for the bet let me sleep on it - also for NY-17 would you be willing to do an over/under Kamala + 2 or something?

I’d be good with that. Not confident at all on NY, but NC-01 should give me a buffer.

In the end, looks like you won the NY-17 bet while I won the NC-01 bet so they cancel out and neither of us owes anything