WA-Governor-08: Gregoire (D) ahead of Rossi (R)
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  WA-Governor-08: Gregoire (D) ahead of Rossi (R)
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Author Topic: WA-Governor-08: Gregoire (D) ahead of Rossi (R)  (Read 3242 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 20, 2007, 01:14:09 AM »

The 2004 Washington gubernatorial race was so close the winner wasn't determined until the all the ballots were counted three times. Gov. Chris Gregoire won by 133 votes out of almost 3 million cast. Angry Republicans went to court, unsuccessfully claiming their man Dino Rossi was robbed.

The expected 2008 Gregoire/Rossi rematch is one of next year's most anticipated races. Can round two be as close as round one? The state Republican party is touting a poll that suggests it can.

A survey condcuted last week by Moore Information found:

*47 percent for Gregoire.
*43 percent for Rossi.
*10 percent undecided.

The poll of 500 voters has a margin of error of 4 percent, which means Gregoire and Rossi are essentially tied. A similary survey in February had nearly identical results (Gregoire 46, Rossi 43, Undecided 10).

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/118355.asp
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2007, 01:24:50 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2007, 01:31:11 AM by Tender Branson »

Note that this is a Republican firm too.

I think if Rossi couldnīt beat her in 2004, he wonīt be able to do it in 2008 either ...

Her latest approval ratings are 54 (approve) - 39 - 7 in the July 2007 SUSA poll.

My Prediction:

Gregoire: 50-51%
Rossi: 47-48%
Other: 2%
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Aizen
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2007, 02:09:13 AM »

Yeah, Dino won't get as close as he did last time. Gregoire seems to be slowly, but surely increasing her approval rating
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2007, 02:34:22 AM »

I would expect Governor Gregiore to win re-election probably over Dino Rossi. If he does win the Republican primary, it'll just be a campaign to stay that the Washington Governorship was robbed from him the last time. And now he want's to get what's really his.

Ron Sims, King County Executive, is planning to challenge Governor Gregiore for the Democratic Gubernatorial primary. I highly doubt he'd win. However, he could spark a liberal leaning Independent candidacy, but this probably wouldn't damage the Gregiore campaign.

My prediction:

Gregoire (D) 53%
Rossi (R) 45%
Others 2%
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2007, 05:49:12 AM »

I would expect Governor Gregiore to win re-election probably over Dino Rossi. If he does win the Republican primary, it'll just be a campaign to stay that the Washington Governorship was robbed from him the last time. And now he want's to get what's really his.

Ron Sims, King County Executive, is planning to challenge Governor Gregiore for the Democratic Gubernatorial primary. I highly doubt he'd win. However, he could spark a liberal leaning Independent candidacy, but this probably wouldn't damage the Gregiore campaign.

My prediction:

Gregoire (D) 53%
Rossi (R) 45%
Others 2%


A Primary challenge would damage her in the general election though.  What does Sims think he's doing?!  Does he want Rossi to win after all?
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2007, 01:58:54 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2007, 02:03:09 PM by Alcon »

A Primary challenge would damage her in the general election though.  What does Sims think he's doing?!  Does he want Rossi to win after all?

He also challenged her last time.  It was not particularly bloody.  Gregoire killed Sims, 66-30%.  His best showing was a paltry 38% in King County.  He succeeded in keeping Gregoire under 60% there, but not much else.
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2007, 04:42:19 PM »

Ron Sims is running again? I haven't heard anything about that.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2007, 01:45:56 AM »

Ron Sims is running again? I haven't heard anything about that.

According to Wikipedia's page on the 2008 Washington Gubernatorial race.
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2007, 02:28:00 AM »

Ron Sims is running again? I haven't heard anything about that.

According to Wikipedia's page on the 2008 Washington Gubernatorial race.

I can't find anything else on the matter.  Maybe they copied the 2004 template and forgot to remove him.
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bgwah
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2007, 03:22:42 AM »

I looked on Wikipedia and it does list him as a possible candiate, along with Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi.

While Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi have given many hints suggesting that they will indeed be running, I don't think Ron Sims has given any. I highly doubt he will be challenging Gregoire.

After all, he'll be busy rigging the election for the woman he thinks is a racist and who humiliatingly defeated him in 2004.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2007, 09:28:14 PM »

Rossi's chances are much, much lower. Washington's climate has shifted much more to the left since 2004, basically 2004 was the republicans only chance for a good long while, especially because Gregoire has decent approvals. Though I will admit that Rossi should at least be able to make the race competitive.
At the moment my prediction:
Gregoire: 51%
Rossi: 46%
Other: 3%
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ottermax
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2007, 12:03:56 AM »

I hope Gregoire wins. I'm slightly concerned over some of the Survery USA polls which had Giuliani leading Clinton. Could it be a sign of a swing toward the Republicans in Washington? I think my state is way too polarized to vote for a Republican governor, but maybe people are just tired of having a Democratic governor for so long.

Does anyone know where Washington stands in the longest states to have the governorship in a single party? I know we aren't first, but we must be up there somewhere.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2007, 12:09:52 AM »

I'm slightly concerned over some of the Survey USA polls which had Giuliani leading Clinton. Could it be a sign of a swing toward the Republicans in Washington?

I donīt think so. WA state was a reliably Dem. state in 2004 and even more in 2006, when Cantwell was elected by close to 20%. Giuliani could be the only one who can make it "close" in any way. There were even some polls in mid-2004 which showed Kerry tied with Bush, but Kerry won by 7% later, so donīt worry too much.

Plus: the latest Washington SurveyUSA poll (July 2007) has Clinton up by 8 over Giuliani:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f69f9ed-4d23-4943-bca9-81e51dbeab45
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2007, 12:16:07 AM »


Where'd you get that and are there any others of those?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2007, 12:19:33 AM »


Itīs that way:

All 16 states are updated by SUSA at the end of a month and have a tracking page (like this). The states are posted on pollster.com:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_16_giuliani_vs.php

So far, only Washington has been updated for July, but I expect the other states to follow either today or next week Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2007, 12:37:37 AM »

Awesome.  Thanks Wink
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2007, 05:18:31 PM »

Iowa elected only Republican Governors from 1968 to 1998 or something like that.  Obviously most Southern states only began electing Republican Governors comparatively recently - Georgia did not elect any in the twentieth century (apart from the contested 1966 race).  In this case, my prediction:

WASHINGTON GOVERNOR
Gregoire (D) 52%
Rossi (R) 45%


WASHINGTON PRESIDENT
Clinton (D) 54%
Thompson (R) 43%
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