WA-Governor-08: Gregoire (D) ahead of Rossi (R)

[Tender Branson]

The 2004 Washington gubernatorial race was so close the winner wasn't determined until the all the ballots were counted three times. Gov. Chris Gregoire won by 133 votes out of almost 3 million cast. Angry Republicans went to court, unsuccessfully claiming their man Dino Rossi was robbed.

The expected 2008 Gregoire/Rossi rematch is one of next year's most anticipated races. Can round two be as close as round one? The state Republican party is touting a poll that suggests it can.

A survey condcuted last week by Moore Information found:

*47 percent for Gregoire.
*43 percent for Rossi.
*10 percent undecided.

The poll of 500 voters has a margin of error of 4 percent, which means Gregoire and Rossi are essentially tied. A similary survey in February had nearly identical results (Gregoire 46, Rossi 43, Undecided 10).

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/118355.asp

[Tender Branson]

Note that this is a Republican firm too.

I think if Rossi couldn´t beat her in 2004, he won´t be able to do it in 2008 either ...

Her latest approval ratings are 54 (approve) - 39 - 7 in the July 2007 SUSA poll.

My Prediction:

Gregoire: 50-51%
Rossi: 47-48%
Other: 2%

[Tender Branson]

I'm slightly concerned over some of the Survey USA polls which had Giuliani leading Clinton. Could it be a sign of a swing toward the Republicans in Washington?

I don´t think so. WA state was a reliably Dem. state in 2004 and even more in 2006, when Cantwell was elected by close to 20%. Giuliani could be the only one who can make it "close" in any way. There were even some polls in mid-2004 which showed Kerry tied with Bush, but Kerry won by 7% later, so don´t worry too much.

Plus: the latest Washington SurveyUSA poll (July 2007) has Clinton up by 8 over Giuliani:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f69f9ed-4d23-4943-bca9-81e51dbeab45

[Tender Branson]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=2f69f9ed-4d23-4943-bca9-81e51dbeab45

Where'd you get that and are there any others of those?

It´s that way:

All 16 states are updated by SUSA at the end of a month and have a tracking page (like this). The states are posted on pollster.com:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_16_giuliani_vs.php

So far, only Washington has been updated for July, but I expect the other states to follow either today or next week