London 2008

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Harry Hayfield]

And don't forget the list either:

Conservatives 533,696
Labour 468,247
Liberal Democrats 316,218
Greens 160,445
UK Independence Party 156,780
(No other parties polled more than 5%)

Seats in order of election
Liberal Democrats win the first seat: Lynne Featherstone ELECTED
Greens win the second seat: Jenny Jones ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the third seat: Graham Tope ELECTED
UKIP win the fourth seat: Damian Hockney ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the fifth seat: Sally Hamwee ELECTED
Greens win the sixth seat: Darren Johnson ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the seventh seat: Michael Tuffrey ELECTED
UKIP win the eighth seat: Peter Cross ELECTED
Labour win the ninth seat: Felicia Gavron ELECTED
Labour win the tenth seat: Murad Qureshi ELECTED
Liberal Democrats win the eleventh seat: Dee Doocey ELECTED

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Singh is none other than Gurcharan Singh. Labour's candidate this year is another Southall machine politician, but not Gurcharan Singh (obviously). Anyway, note the huge margins in Southall and the underpeforming in whiter areas (both Northolt wards, for instance, voted Labour on the list).

[Harry Hayfield]

New London Mayor and Assembly Poll
Commissioned by: The London Evening Standard
Conducted by: You Gov
Date of sample: 20th - 25th March 2008
Size of Sample: 1,051

Mayoral Election
First Preferences
Boris Johnson (Con) 47%
Ken Livingston (Lab) 37%
Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) 10%
Sian Berry (Green) 2%
Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) 1%
Matt O'Connor (English Democrats) 1%
All other candidates less than 1%

Second Preferences
Brian Paddick (Lib Dem) 43% (50% Con 53% Lab)
Boris Johnson (Con) 18% (19% Lab 39% Lib Dem)
Ken Livingston (Lab) 14% (28% Con 37% Lib Dem)
Sian Berry (Green) 10% (6% Con 19% Lab 8% Lib Dem)
Alan Craig (Christian People's Alliance) 2%
Gerard Batten (UKIP) 2%
Chris Prior (Stop Congestion Charging) 2%
Richard Barnbrook (British National Party) 2%
Lindsey German (Respect) 1%
Matt O'Connor (English Democrats) 1%

Assembly Constituency Vote
Conservatives 42% (+10% on 2004)
Labour 37% (+12% on 2004)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-3% on 2004)
Greens 3% (-5% on 2004)
BNP 2% (+2% on 2004)
Independents 1% (+1% on 2004)
UKIP 1% (-9% on 2004)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As much as I'd love to see a swing *to* Labour in the GLA (some of Labour's candidates in marginal seats are pretty good compared to those from 2004) I don't think it's especially likely. Interesting to see that Livingstone is apparently no longer running ahead of the rest of Labour. Numbers for both main parties still look too high.

[afleitch]

As much as I'd love to see a swing *to* Labour in the GLA (some of Labour's candidates in marginal seats are pretty good compared to those from 2004) I don't think it's especially likely. Interesting to see that Livingstone is apparently no longer running ahead of the rest of Labour. Numbers for both main parties still look too high.

True. It appears Livingstone's personal vote has taken a hit (and Boris seems to have a personal vote of his own - either that or 'anyone but Livingstone')

Good to see UKIP down, but that was expected after a fairly strong performance that year nationwide. I anticipate the BNP vote will be higher, though YouGov has fairly acceptable methodology for encouraging shy voters to express their preferences. Not perfect of course. I'd forgotten about the CPA - i'll look forward to seeing the voting patterns for that shower.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True. It appears Livingstone's personal vote has taken a hit

Considering that a lot of his personal vote came from the idea that he was somehow representative of "good government" that's not really a surprise. His numbers will probably crash in SW London.

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I would guess a mixture of both; the lolBorisasMayor!!!11 vote probably won't turn out, but Livingstone has been hated in some of the suburbs for decades.

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The BNP are only running in one constituency (City and East) so they won't poll higher than that. On the constituency vote anyway. They are also running on the list and will certainly poll higher than that (high enough to win a seat as well. Urgh).

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Want some maps from last time?

[JohnFKennedy]

If I end up with Boris Johnson as Mayor I will NOT be happy.

[afleitch]

I would guess a mixture of both; the lolBorisasMayor!!!11 vote probably won't turn out, but Livingstone has been hated in some of the suburbs for decades.

I suspect that Livingstone believed Boris would 'defeat himself.' It's always Livingstone's arrogance that gets the better of him as may be the case in May.

The BNP are only running in one constituency (City and East) so they won't poll higher than that. On the constituency vote anyway. They are also running on the list and will certainly poll higher than that (high enough to win a seat as well. Urgh).

Which will of course be quite the coup. It will of course make them more of a legitimate threat, though might have idiots in the press saying how PR is terrible because it lets in the BNP in (ignoring the threshold in place)

Want some maps from last time?

If you've got them I've been keeping track of the vote shares of these sorts of parties in the UK. They often have different guises and public faces but have the same people, money and churches behind them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arbour managed to lose all three boroughs and still win. Some nasty racial voting in Hounslow, but given the Labour candidate's surname that counts as a given...

[afleitch]

Nice to see the voting pattern in Chiswick. I think my Chris might be a bit p-ed off though

--

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter.  I hope as many Londoners as possible turn out on May 1st to prevent the election of a BNP candidate.

[Harry Hayfield]

London Assembly Swingometer

10% from Con to Lab: Lab 11 Con 5 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
9% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
8% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
7% from Con to Lab: Lab 10 Con 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
6% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
5% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
4% from Con to Lab: Lab 9 Con 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
3% from Con to Lab: Lab 8 Con 8 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
2% from Con to Lab: Lab 8 Con 8 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
1% from Con to Lab: Con 9 Lab 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
No swing: Con 9 Lab 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
1% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 7 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
2% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
3% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
4% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
5% from Lab to Con: Con 10 Lab 6 Lib Dem 5 Green 2 UKIP 2
6% from Lab to Con: Con 12 Lab 5 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
7% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
8% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
9% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2
10% from Lab to Con: Con 13 Lab 4 Lib Dem 4 Green 2 UKIP 2

[minionofmidas]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

[afleitch]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

[minionofmidas]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

That much was obvious.

[afleitch]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

That much was obvious.

So whats the problem? Unless you think that Labour and the Tories shouldn't lance the boil by getting potential BNP voters to stick with the sane parties

[minionofmidas]

Boris Johnson says 'no thanks' to BNP support.

I utterly and unreservedly condemn the BNP and have no desire whatsoever to receive a single second preference vote from a BNP supporter. 

Didn't say anything about their first preferences so the headline is misleading.

He was responding specifically to the BNP requesting those who vote for them second preference Johnson.

That much was obvious.

So whats the problem? Unless you think that Labour and the Tories shouldn't lance the boil by getting potential BNP voters to stick with the sane parties

What else would he have said? This isn't news.
It would have been newsworthy (it would also have hurt his campaign, obviously) if he'd said, "That's great, we need every vote!" Of course, he's hoping to get those votes anyways.
It might also have been newsworthy (and raised a chuckle here. But again, would have hurt him electorally) if he'd gone even further and insulted them a little to make sure he really doesn't get their votes. But he wouldn't do that, would he? After all, he actually wants their votes - he just doesn't want to be seen as courting BNP votes.
Again, all of this is perfectly understandable and almost unavoidable. But it isn't commendable.

[Harry Hayfield]

New Mayoral Poll : April 2nd 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/livingstone.johnson

Johnson 51% vs Livingstone 49% (after second preferences)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Better than I'd been expecting. Livingstone needs to get his act together though. Anyway...

Gotta love the bitching:

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[Silent Hunter]

Speaking of the BNP:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7326987.stm

Glad he's gone.

[Serenity Now]

New Mayoral Poll : April 2nd 2008

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/02/livingstone.johnson

Johnson 51% vs Livingstone 49% (after second preferences)

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That's interesting as 29% was the non-white population at the time of that census in 2001 (28.85% to be precise) - I would imagine this figure to be reasonably higher now, which is bad for Boris, which is good, but also bad in how it reflects race-based voting patterns in much of London.

[Serenity Now]

Nice to see the voting pattern in Chiswick. I think my Chris might be a bit p-ed off though

Is he not a Tory like you are?

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of the BNP:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7326987.stm

Glad he's gone.

You seem not to realize quite how attached women are to their handbags.

[afleitch]

Nice to see the voting pattern in Chiswick. I think my Chris might be a bit p-ed off though

Is he not a Tory like you are?

No. But he wouldn't vote Labour if you paid him

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems I forgot to clip the key. Oh well. At least it shows the order of the candidates (which you wouldn't otherwise get as UKIP won no wards).