What the 2003 elections (Ca. Miss. Ky. & La) mean for 2004

[Ryan]

Well its over, the four big elections of the year are done and its a GOP advantage 3 to 1.

How will it affect the race for the White House in 2004?? I'm sure there are as many opinions as members here so let start hearing em..........

[Ryan]

My take is that the results confirm that the nation is still close to being as evenly divided between the parties as 2000 (with perhaps a slight GOP improvement.)

Do the gubernatorial victories make up a good predictor of Presidential elections? Of course not!! State elections are primarily decided on state issues.

To decide upon indicators to the Presidential race, we need to look at how the White House and mention of the White House influenced trends.

In Kentucky and Mississippi, GWB campaigned for his party nominees and they moved up in the polls after each visit.

Even more useful, democratic strategy of tying GOP candidates to Bush failed to have the desired effect.
In Kentucky it was a clear case of pro-Bush (Fletcher) and anti-Bush (Chandler). You all know who won. Furthur more in all four states, democrats tried to campaign on opposition to the President (not so much in Miss.) and all four Republican candidates endorsed the President's leadership though they connected themselves to him to varying extents. In no case did these hurt republican candidates (the La. defeat had other factors)

To sum up, there is no evidence that GWB has lost any of the support he had in 2000 in his "base" states and if California is an indication, he is not as weak as made out to be in left-tending states. (Otherwise Arnold would not have done so well after clearly stating that he supported the President and in fact recd. a muted endorsement from him.)

[Ryan]

Wow aheckva lotta issues to address but I'm realllly pressed for time so I will mention only one.

Whoever mentioned that Hispanics would not support a conservative Hispanic nominee should have qualified that statement a bit. Unlike the black community, which is now (for the most part) solidly liberal and thus certain to oppose another Clarence Thomas, the Hispanic community is way to the right on social issues. I would guess that a clear majority is pro-life and pro-school prayer and would probably oppose gay marriage among others.

Where the Hispanic community tends left is on economic issues and most of those are not decided by SCOTUS.

There a few exceptions like Affirmative Action (most Hispanics in favor) and if Bush were able to find the "right" nominee, he can have best of both worlds- energize the religious right and attract a large segment of Hispanic voters who are socially conservative but still vote democratic!!

[Ryan]

Well ok maybe time for one more comment :-)

I also agree witht he sentiment expressed here that Democrats will not win on the back of Bush's faults. They have to have a clear (and acceptable) alternative vision and program.

Remember the 1972 election was not a blowout because Nixon was especially popular. There were also a huge number of mistakes and failings to point to, far more than Bush has now.
He won anyway becuase he was seen as an effective President and the democrats as a bunch of idealistic nutcases!!

If we dont see some sense in the Democratic party soon, look for History to repeat itself.

[Ryan]

Has Cheney bugged the DNC?

hahahahahah, Realpolitik U will take any excuse to justify a democratic defeat
Get over it buddy, sometimes they just run bad campaigns and lose. But don't feel bad, the GOP does it too, rem. 1964??

I'm don't know that it was the entire campaign plan that they got from the DNC headquarters but even if it was, so what?
Election campaigns are not military campaigns. It doesn't make that much of a difference that you know the opposing campaign strategy.
You can figure out upto 90% of it anyway if you have half a brain.

But just for fun can you expand on your thesis that McGovern would have won if Nixon didn't know what his "plan" was??

[Ryan]

Lol .......yeah generally does in both love and war

Only this kinda war its moot cause you can SEE what ur opponent is upto, no real need to bug him (doesnt hurt anyway tho)