What the 2003 elections (Ca. Miss. Ky. & La) mean for 2004 (user search)
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  What the 2003 elections (Ca. Miss. Ky. & La) mean for 2004 (search mode)
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Author Topic: What the 2003 elections (Ca. Miss. Ky. & La) mean for 2004  (Read 20134 times)
Nym90
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« on: November 18, 2003, 02:25:18 AM »

As for those 2 trump cards, I believe that number 1 would only marginally play in the GOP's favor, and number 2 would be no advantage at all, possibly a loss for the GOP. I know it's just a matter of opinion and it's been discussed many times before, but I just don't see swing voters flocking to Bush over banning gay marriage. Even if swing voters may be uneasy about the idea of legalized gay marriage, Bush needs to be very careful not to be viewed as anti-gay, which would turn off swing voters and hurt the inclusive image the GOP is trying to cultivate. I think the Dems can be successful on this issue with the position that it should be left up to the individual states to decide for themselves. Even Dean, who is supposedly far left on this issue, takes that stance. None of the candidates is proposing forcing gay marriage to be performed nationally. And Bush hasn't endorsed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage either, so I don't see Bush's position necessarily firing up GOP activists. If Bush thought that was a winning position, I think he would have adopted it. He knows he has to appear inclusive.
As for the possibility of a SCOTUS retirement, the religious right would demand a very conservative nominee, especially on abortion. This would also hurt Bush with swing voters. Nominating a Hispanic isn't going to overcome that, and cause swing voters and Hispanics to ignore the person's position simply because of their race. Again, it's just my opinion, and no one knows for sure what would happen. I know you're convinced that large numbers of Hispanics will base their vote solely on the issue of a Hispanic nominee to the SCOTUS, even if he doesn't agree with their views, but I just don't see the evidence for it. If Bush nominated a moderate Hispanic like Alberto Gonzales (not a conservative like Miguel Estrada) then it would play marginally in Bush's favor, (since the nomination would be popular across the board) but the Dems would also almost certainly approve Gonzales nearly unanimously so that would minimize any political damage.
The Dems don't have the reigns of power, but it doesn't mean they don't have issues they can use. What do you think of the WMD report that was issued the other day stating that the WMDs weren't moved out of Iraq? Maybe it was wrong, but I'd say Bush needs to find at least the WMDs or Saddam or Bin Laden, at least 1 and probably 2 of those 3 before the election, otherwise foreign policy is not going to be viewed as a strength for Bush. It also won't be a strength if the rate of deaths in Iraq doesn't start decreasing.
The budget deficit is also a big issue that can be used against Bush, and the economy needs a couple more quarters of strong growth before that becomes a real positive for Bush. Certainly, Bush could win 45 states...anything is possible, but I highly doubt that would happen. A 45 state victory for Bush would basically mean that he would have to win states like Connecticut (if Lieberman isn't the nominee), New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and California (add Vermont if Dean isn't the nominee). Right now Gallup has Bush's approval rating at 50 approve/47 disapprove, the lowest of his presidency (actually equal to where he was about 2 months ago). Certainly things could turn around, but until they actually do start turning around politically for Bush, it's a bit premature to suggest that he's going to win any kind of landslide reelection.
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