UK General Discussion: The Toolmaker's Son.

[Coldstream]

Usual caveats about GB News, although I’d expect them to accurately report at least what Farage wants to happen.

Seems to suggest that Sunak & Dowden will resign soon after the new Tory leader is chosen, and a third MP will resign and defect to fight a by-election for Reform.

The identity of this third MP isn’t revealed, Braverman is the obvious choice but I’ve a hard time seeing her having the guts to call a by-election. Although defecting during the announcement of the next Tory leader certainly sounds like her.

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/nigel-farage-rishi-sunak-seat-high-profile-candidate-reform-uk

[Alcibiades]

The identity of this third MP isn’t revealed, Braverman is the obvious choice but I’ve a hard time seeing her having the guts to call a by-election. Although defecting during the announcement of the next Tory leader certainly sounds like her.

It would also be an extremely hard defence for her; Reform finished fourth in her constituency at the general election (and I suspect she doesn’t exactly have a massive personal vote).

[joevsimp]

Though an "NHS for Pets" has been campaigned for by some people going back several decades now.

I'm sure DEFRA would love to be lumbered with running that!

[CumbrianLefty]

At a meeting of the PLP, Streeting told MPs he’ll vote against the assisted dying bill - citing the absence of a “fair choice” due to issues with NHS palliative care, and saying his experience at the Health Dept. has reversed his previous stance (having voted for assisted dying in 2015).

Quite possibly influenced by his own cancer diagnosis as well.

[Coldstream]

The identity of this third MP isn’t revealed, Braverman is the obvious choice but I’ve a hard time seeing her having the guts to call a by-election. Although defecting during the announcement of the next Tory leader certainly sounds like her.

It would also be an extremely hard defence for her; Reform finished fourth in her constituency at the general election (and I suspect she doesn’t exactly have a massive personal vote).

She may not, but it’s possible the Reform party can pull out some by-election big swings like the Lib Dem’s do. Also realistically the winner would only need perhaps 33% of the vote, which I think is doable. Though I still think it’s unlikely she stands down.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, certainly wouldn't rule out Reform winning a byelection in the right circumstances (like UKIP did)

[Alcibiades]

Yes, certainly wouldn't rule out Reform winning a byelection in the right circumstances (like UKIP did)

Yes, but UKIP’s two by-elections wins were in some of the naturally most fertile territory for them in the entire country; Reform only slightly outperformed their national average in Fareham and Waterlooville.

Of course stranger things have happened in by-elections, but this is really not one of the better Tory seats in which to try and pull this stunt.

[Tintrlvr]

The identity of this third MP isn’t revealed, Braverman is the obvious choice but I’ve a hard time seeing her having the guts to call a by-election. Although defecting during the announcement of the next Tory leader certainly sounds like her.

It would also be an extremely hard defence for her; Reform finished fourth in her constituency at the general election (and I suspect she doesn’t exactly have a massive personal vote).

Only because she was the Tory candidate and clearly had a "personal vote" of a sort with the hard right where those voters didn't defect to Reform (but would have if the Tory candidate were wetter, as it were). Fareham and Waterlooville was modeled as one of the better Reform seats nationally.

It's an awkward by-election either way. The Lib Dems surely would run a serious campaign as well given that they got 19%, one of their best results in a seat where they weren't competitive, and there is also a large Labour vote (Labour were in second but it's hard to see them seriously contesting).

[Alcibiades]

Only because she was the Tory candidate and clearly had a "personal vote" of a sort with the hard right where those voters didn't defect to Reform (but would have if the Tory candidate were "wetter", as it were). Fareham and Waterlooville was modeled as one of the better Reform seats nationally.

While I don’t think anyone’s produced estimates for the new boundaries, looking at its predecessor seats, the Leave vote share in Fareham and Waterlooville was probably only in the low-to-mid 50s, so the 18% that Reform actually got in June is probably not far off their ‘natural’ vote share once any special hard-right appeal Braverman had is discounted.

I do agree that the virtual three-way tie for second place would make it an unpredictable one though.

[JimJamUK]

At a meeting of the PLP, Streeting told MPs he’ll vote against the assisted dying bill - citing the absence of a “fair choice” due to issues with NHS palliative care, and saying his experience at the Health Dept. has reversed his previous stance (having voted for assisted dying in 2015).

Does make the whole thing look shakier, if you have the Health Sec voting it down at second reading, and using a justification tailor-made to be leaked and give MPs a "protect the elderly and our NHS" permission structure to vote against.

If he supports it in principle but not currently in practice, it begs the question of what he’s doing to get palliative care into an acceptable state and therefore when will he change his mind to support it again?

[YL]

Only because she was the Tory candidate and clearly had a "personal vote" of a sort with the hard right where those voters didn't defect to Reform (but would have if the Tory candidate were "wetter", as it were). Fareham and Waterlooville was modeled as one of the better Reform seats nationally.

While I don’t think anyone’s produced estimates for the new boundaries, looking at its predecessor seats, the Leave vote share in Fareham and Waterlooville was probably only in the low-to-mid 50s, so the 18% that Reform actually got in June is probably not far off their ‘natural’ vote share once any special hard-right appeal Braverman had is discounted.

I do agree that the virtual three-way tie for second place would make it an unpredictable one though.

Electoral Calculus have estimates; they may not be that accurate, but for Fareham & Waterlooville the estimate is 57% Leave. So indeed it isn't a natural Reform stronghold, though the dynamics in a post-defection by-election might give them a chance.

[Coldstream]

Only because she was the Tory candidate and clearly had a "personal vote" of a sort with the hard right where those voters didn't defect to Reform (but would have if the Tory candidate were "wetter", as it were). Fareham and Waterlooville was modeled as one of the better Reform seats nationally.

While I don’t think anyone’s produced estimates for the new boundaries, looking at its predecessor seats, the Leave vote share in Fareham and Waterlooville was probably only in the low-to-mid 50s, so the 18% that Reform actually got in June is probably not far off their ‘natural’ vote share once any special hard-right appeal Braverman had is discounted.

I do agree that the virtual three-way tie for second place would make it an unpredictable one though.

Electoral Calculus have estimates; they may not be that accurate, but for Fareham & Waterlooville the estimate is 57% Leave. So indeed it isn't a natural Reform stronghold, though the dynamics in a post-defection by-election might give them a chance.

It may not be ideal, but south coast elderly retirement people sounds like the sort of place Reform will start to do well in *if* they can convincingly replace the Tories as the party of the right. Which having the former Home Secretary defect would assist with.

[Chickpeas]

Seems to suggest that Sunak & Dowden will resign soon after the new Tory leader is chosen, and a third MP will resign and defect to fight a by-election for Reform.

Wonder if any of the old faces such as Mordaunt or Shapps will be tempted to try and return. Although the Tories might be better off mustering fresh candidates rather than relics of the previous government.

[YL]

Seems to suggest that Sunak & Dowden will resign soon after the new Tory leader is chosen, and a third MP will resign and defect to fight a by-election for Reform.

Wonder if any of the old faces such as Mordaunt or Shapps will be tempted to try and return. Although the Tories might be better off mustering fresh candidates rather than relics of the previous government.

There has certainly been speculation about Shapps and the speculated Hertsmere vacancy.

[Coldstream]

Seems to suggest that Sunak & Dowden will resign soon after the new Tory leader is chosen, and a third MP will resign and defect to fight a by-election for Reform.

Wonder if any of the old faces such as Mordaunt or Shapps will be tempted to try and return. Although the Tories might be better off mustering fresh candidates rather than relics of the previous government.

Both have been suggested, Mordaunt would be a decent choice, but I suspect Shapps would be a drag -  particularly against Reform.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The identity of this third MP isn’t revealed, Braverman is the obvious choice but I’ve a hard time seeing her having the guts to call a by-election. Although defecting during the announcement of the next Tory leader certainly sounds like her.

It would also be an extremely hard defence for her; Reform finished fourth in her constituency at the general election (and I suspect she doesn’t exactly have a massive personal vote).

Only because she was the Tory candidate and clearly had a "personal vote" of a sort with the hard right where those voters didn't defect to Reform (but would have if the Tory candidate were wetter, as it were). Fareham and Waterlooville was modeled as one of the better Reform seats nationally.

It's an awkward by-election either way. The Lib Dems surely would run a serious campaign as well given that they got 19%, one of their best results in a seat where they weren't competitive, and there is also a large Labour vote (Labour were in second but it's hard to see them seriously contesting).

Reform finished 4% above their nationwide share and Braverman's vote fell by more than the national average (and in a place where their vote should have been much stickier than elsewhere.) So I don't think it's that poor a seat for Reform, but equally I don't think you can convincingly demonstrate a personal vote.

[Pericles]

It would be hilarious if a Tory MP defects to Reform and that hands their seat to the LibDems instead.

[Cassius]

I’m not convinced that Braverman does defect and I’m not actually sure that Farage would want her in any case (contrary to the general consensus that any party containing Farage must inevitably be wracked by splits, I think that the present Reform contingent in parliament are actually a reasonably tight five, but I think that throwing Braverman into the mix would be combustible). I think it’s far more likely to be some no-name backbencher that crosses the floor, but we shall see.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would be hilarious if a Tory MP defects to Reform and that hands their seat to the LibDems instead.

On one level, it is pretty hard to see the Tories losing any seat won by them to in July - but of course they did manage this in the 1997-2001 parliament, so we will have to wait and see.

[Coldstream]

I’m not convinced that Braverman does defect and I’m not actually sure that Farage would want her in any case (contrary to the general consensus that any party containing Farage must inevitably be wracked by splits, I think that the present Reform contingent in parliament are actually a reasonably tight five, but I think that throwing Braverman into the mix would be combustible). I think it’s far more likely to be some no-name backbencher that crosses the floor, but we shall see.

I think he probably wouldn’t want her, but he may not be able to refuse her if she offers. In theory I’d agree on a random backbencher, but I sort of think if you stayed running with the Tories in the 2024 election you must have some level of personal loyalty to the party (unless you’re someone like Braverman who’s just been thwarted and humiliated).

[seeking mystical annihilation]

People should stop calling her "Bad Enoch" because every time I see it written like that I feel like they have to be talking about some spa town in the Schwarzwald I haven't heard of

[Zinneke]

People should stop calling her "Bad Enoch" because every time I see it written like that I feel like they have to be talking about some spa town in the Schwarzwald I haven't heard of

Yes call her a bitch instead.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

People should stop calling her "Bad Enoch" because every time I see it written like that I feel like they have to be talking about some spa town in the Schwarzwald I haven't heard of

The real Bad Enoch in the leadership election was Tom Tugendhat anyway (afflicted by a bad case of incurable Orientalism, military service as intelligence, probably should have chosen a career outside of politics).

[CumbrianLefty]

The latest poll has Bad Enoch improving her position, barring a major upset it looks like she has this.

[Coldstream]

Reform will be polling above the Tories by years end.