Possible Biden withdrawal megathread (please use for all related news/speculation)

[Banana Republican]

A lot of the Harris skepticism I heard in the black voter focus groups was more around her electability. It’s the same stuff I heard around 2007 with Obama and the community. They’re hardest on their own.

Yep, there is no question that the support would be there for Harris if she is the nominee. The concerns about her from African American voters are all of the pragmatic "I don't know if she can win" and "I am not sure she has done enough and I haven't seen her much" variety.

That's why - while Harris probably does have some potential weaknesses with swing voters compared to other potential candidates, she could well turn out to be very much electable.

There were similar doubts about Barack Obama himself, back in 2008. He did lose some votes due to his race, but he also got unprecedented African American support - and, more importantly, TURNOUT.

Harris could well turn out to be similar. If she proves herself against other candidates, Harris could well be a formidable Democratic nominee, and this is why she has a good chance of beating Trump, even if it might be a bit lower than some other candidates might have. I would guess Her main weakness is really her closer association with Biden and the Biden administration record than other candidates would have, rather than her race/gender.

[Banana Republican]

the problem of harris will be to win in the rust belt.

She probably can, though it's not a gimme and will be tough. Black turnout was not great in 2020, and would likely be better with Harris, which does make a difference in all 3 of MI/PA/WI.

However, the stronger bet to win those states may be to run Whitmer or Shapiro or possibly some other candidate like Beshear or Kelly or Moore instead of Harris.

We'll have to see how it goes.

[Banana Republican]

https://www.twitter.com/weijia/status/1814036047820431457

NEW: Two senior House Democrats tell @MajorCBS
 they expect the question of Biden’s candidacy to be resolved in 3-5 days. Each day of indecision will lead to more public calls for him to step aside.

Of course the caveat is — and has always been— that the choice is totally up to Biden.

The best will be if Biden announces it tonight right after Trump finishes his convention speech, so then all the talk and media attention afterwards will be taken away from Trump's big speech and will focus on the excitement of figuring out who will be on the Democratic ticket and what they will offer to the country.

[Banana Republican]

https://www.twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1814041697086513267

Fox News @BretBaier has talked to Trump and has preview of tonight's speech: 'There will not be the use of one word in the speech, and that is the name 'Biden.' He will not say the name 'Biden' in the speech.'

Trump knows at this point that Biden will not be the nominee. It puts him in a difficult situation, because he is not quite sure who he needs to attack.

That's a good thing for Democrats, because we could get a bunch of candidates out there all grabbing media attention and all attacking Trump, and he would not really know who to hit back against.

Democrats have a golden opportunity to be disruptors and change agents, and hog the media spotlight for their attacks against Trump and to present their plans for a positive future for America.

[Can't Bear]

https://www.twitter.com/weijia/status/1814036047820431457

NEW: Two senior House Democrats tell @MajorCBS
 they expect the question of Biden’s candidacy to be resolved in 3-5 days. Each day of indecision will lead to more public calls for him to step aside.

Of course the caveat is — and has always been— that the choice is totally up to Biden.

The best will be if Biden announces it tonight right after Trump finishes his convention speech, so then all the talk and media attention afterwards will be taken away from Trump's big speech and will focus on the excitement of figuring out who will be on the Democratic ticket and what they will offer to the country.

Like, it will be really hilarious, if it happened today (fun-wise), but you, guys, started to care about flashy things even more than Trump. Do you think, it really will matter on Nov 5th?

[wbrocks67]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

Source?

Yep, still waiting. People do not post stuff in this thread without a source, especially when you're using terms like "Biden campaign" - there are many people who work in the campaign. Who are you talking about?

[Banana Republican]

Not sure if I missed it, but when I was scanning through previous posts, I don't think anyone posted the Raskin letter to Biden. Here it is:

https://www.twitter.com/yashar/status/1814037053077946408

The New York Times has obtained a four page letter that Congressman Jamie Raskin sent to President Biden on July 6.

In the letter, Raskin compares Biden to a tiring baseball pitcher and urges him to consult with Democrats about whether he should continue his campaign.

Raskin has confirmed the authenticity of the letter to the NYT and given them a new statement as well.

Full Story: https://bit.ly/3W93Kl0

It's time to take a breather for the sake of the team, Mr. President. The Democratic party has a fantastic stable of relief pitchers at the ready.

[wbrocks67]

Morgan being out is a big deal. Even after the debate and the preceding weeks, he was one of Biden's biggest proponents to stay in.

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/1814021604269019490

[wbrocks67]

NYT: President Biden is appearing to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November, according to people close to him.

Just got the notification

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the other Ds are losing to Trump Biden is the strongest challenge, they need to chill out.

[TechbroMBA]

Not sure if I missed it, but when I was scanning through previous posts, I don't think anyone posted the Raskin letter to Biden. Here it is:

https://www.twitter.com/yashar/status/1814037053077946408

The New York Times has obtained a four page letter that Congressman Jamie Raskin sent to President Biden on July 6.

In the letter, Raskin compares Biden to a tiring baseball pitcher and urges him to consult with Democrats about whether he should continue his campaign.

Raskin has confirmed the authenticity of the letter to the NYT and given them a new statement as well.

Full Story: https://bit.ly/3W93Kl0

It's time to take a breather for the sake of the team, Mr. President. The Democratic party has a fantastic stable of relief pitchers at the ready.

Jesus, get an editor Raskin!

[Banana Republican]

https://www.twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1814046237428998558

Dawg this is a new low

Among voters who say they currently aren't voting or leaning towards voting for Biden

95% say they never would

Joe Biden has basically no room to improve his abysmal polling numbers. 95% of the people who are not already saying they support Biden will just not even consider voting for him, ever.

Another Democratic candidate, whether it be Harris or anyone else, will have MUCH more room for growth and can pull into the lead against Trump.

But for Biden, it's just not gonna happen. Way too many people have already just totally ruled Biden out. Which is why he must drop out.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Biden is so weak he is leading all the candidates against Trump, gimme a break wishful thinking.

Fox news are gonna attack whom ever Ds nominated

[wbrocks67]

Ugh can we just not post umichvoter. He's become nothing but a desperate clickbait engagement farm account lol

[Paleobrazilian]

Dana Bash now says Biden claims he's yet to see a poll that proves he has no path to victory.

[Banana Republican]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

Source?

Yep, still waiting. People do not post stuff in this thread without a source, especially when you're using terms like "Biden campaign" - there are many people who work in the campaign. Who are you talking about?

Matty should of course post a source, but FWIW I did also see it earlier. Can't find the source now though. But I am pretty sure saw that too FWIW.

[wbrocks67]

Dana Bash now says Biden claims he's yet to see a poll that proves he has no path to victory.

Clearly he has:

Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party.

One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that “reality is setting in” and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-election-drop-out.html

[wbrocks67]

Feels like a big deal that we are still getting these leaks as well, given that his inner circle has been tightened up. To me, that feels like the picture we're getting is likely more accurate since it's coming from the ones that remain close to him.

[Banana Republican]

Reuters: Once defiant, Biden is now 'soul searching' about dropping out of race, source says

"His soul searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact," said one of the sources, who requested anonymity. "He's thinking about this very seriously."

...

Another of the sources, a Democratic congressional aide, said the writing appeared to be on the wall for the president after lawmakers including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly urged him to drop out of the race. "It feels like it's a matter of ... when, not if," the aide said. ... Another source, a Biden campaign official, said the opposite. "Yes, it's over. Just a matter of time."

Biden campaign official says it is Joever. We have come a long way to get to that point.

The soul "searching language" is new.

It is understandably a tough decision for Biden. But there is only one right decision.

[Slick Willie]

Per NYT:

People close to Biden say he appears to accept he may have to leave the race.

Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party.

One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that “reality is setting in” and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

[wbrocks67]

Reuters: Once defiant, Biden is now 'soul searching' about dropping out of race, source says

"His soul searching is actually happening, I know that for a fact," said one of the sources, who requested anonymity. "He's thinking about this very seriously."

...

Another of the sources, a Democratic congressional aide, said the writing appeared to be on the wall for the president after lawmakers including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reportedly urged him to drop out of the race. "It feels like it's a matter of ... when, not if," the aide said. ... Another source, a Biden campaign official, said the opposite. "Yes, it's over. Just a matter of time."

Biden campaign official says it is Joever. We have come a long way to get to that point.

The soul "searching language" is new.

It is understandably a tough decision for Biden. But there is only one right decision.

This is why I thought it was wrong for people to say he's the same as Trump, an egomaniac, etc. Yes, Joe Biden is stubborn and proud. But when push comes to shove, I still expect him to do what he thinks is ultimately the right thing for the country. Yes, he had to be pushed hard, but anyone in his position would have to be given his legacy and his past.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

A Kennedy running, DNC is in Chicago, an (attempted) assassination, and the constitutionally eligible incumbent potentially dropping out.

Are we just redoing 1968?

[Paleobrazilian]

Listening to Chris Coons on CNN, well... even he seems to realize it's joever.

[Banana Republican]

Feels like a big deal that we are still getting these leaks as well, given that his inner circle has been tightened up. To me, that feels like the picture we're getting is likely more accurate since it's coming from the ones that remain close to him.

When Biden has made the decision to step aside and has informed Dem leadership, that is likely when the leaks stop.

So as soon as we stop getting these constant leaks, that is when we will know it is truly Joever.

However, the word for "no more leaking" may take a bit of time to get out from the leadership to filter down to all the lower level Dem staffers. And at that time some leaks will already have happened but reporters will be in the process of halfway through writing their stories.

[Redban]

Hang in there Joe. We on the other side need you