Possible Biden withdrawal megathread (please use for all related news/speculation)

[Slick Willie]

Per NYT:

Al Sharpton says he told Biden that staying in the race could imperil his legacy.

[Spectator]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President. If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has an existential feeling to it.

1) You don't get a leg up for being a losing VP nominee. Just ask subsequent nominees Tim Kaine, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Hell, of those only Edwards made some noise and he was 3rd before the wheels came off.

2) If you win, there's almost no chance of becoming President. You think the Dems will get four consecutive terms? Or you think Harris will lose and then somehow as a losing 1 term VP you will be a shoe-in to win nomination?

If you want to think like a sociopath whose only goal is the White House, you look at what Gavin Newsom does. Quietly position yourself as the candidate in waiting, and if it looks like it's Kamala's turn then be a loyal soldier and hope she crashes and burns with you not in the wreckage.

Exactly. It’s not in Whitmer’s interest to be on the losing ticket. She’s one of the fromtrunners in 2028 if/when Harris loses this year. Cooper running and losing for VP would severely taint his odds of winning the Senate seat that he pretty obviously wants in 2026. Shapiro has reelection to worry about if he lost, though he’d probably win reelection. Beshear is the only one that has nothing to lose from being on the ticket. It’d probably be a big boost to his national profile, and he has nowhere else to go.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Per NYT:

Al Sharpton says he told Biden that staying in the race could imperil his legacy.

Well, Biden has already said that he doesn't care about that lol.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I have no doubt actual Blue MAGA Biden or Bust types exist, but I would bet actual money that 95% of people who post things like this are MAGA guys pretending to be Democrats or bots and trolls from the Internet Research Agency.

Eh, these were mostly women (and a few men) aged 40 and up. I clicked on some of their profiles; they're not bots.

[TechbroMBA]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President. If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has an existential feeling to it.

1) You don't get a leg up for being a losing VP nominee. Just ask subsequent nominees Tim Kaine, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Hell, of those only Edwards made some noise and he was 3rd before the wheels came off.

2) If you win, there's almost no chance of becoming President. You think the Dems will get four consecutive terms? Or you think Harris will lose and then somehow as a losing 1 term VP you will be a shoe-in to win nomination?

If you want to think like a sociopath whose only goal is the White House, you look at what Gavin Newsom does. Quietly position yourself as the candidate in waiting, and if it looks like it's Kamala's turn then be a loyal soldier and hope she crashes and burns with you not in the wreckage.

Exactly. It’s not in Whitmer’s interest to be on the losing ticket. She’s one of the fromtrunners in 2028 if/when Harris loses this year. Cooper running and losing for VP would severely taint his odds of winning the Senate seat that he pretty obviously wants in 2026. Shapiro has reelection to worry about if he lost, though he’d probably win reelection. Beshear is the only one that has nothing to lose from being on the ticket. It’d probably be a big boost to his national profile, and he has nowhere else to go.

Wouldn't Beshear basically be lame duck by the time he'd need to jump into 2028 primaries? He's only one year offset from Whitmer, Newsom and Pritzker. I don't see why his calculus is that different.

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1814017991794639077

lol Poor Joe. Even though I want him to ultimately step aside, I kind of hope he tells these people to f**k off for just a little longer.  

[Compuzled_One]

Per NYT:

Al Sharpton says he told Biden that staying in the race could imperil his legacy.

Damn, he was on his side at one point.

[Can't Bear]

I have no doubt actual Blue MAGA Biden or Bust types exist, but I would bet actual money that 95% of people who post things like this are MAGA guys pretending to be Democrats or bots and trolls from the Internet Research Agency.

Eh, these were mostly women (and a few men) aged 40 and up. I clicked on some of their profiles; they're not bots.

1% of the electorate is using twitter actively. They totally non-representative.

[Spectator]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President. If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has an existential feeling to it.

1) You don't get a leg up for being a losing VP nominee. Just ask subsequent nominees Tim Kaine, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Hell, of those only Edwards made some noise and he was 3rd before the wheels came off.

2) If you win, there's almost no chance of becoming President. You think the Dems will get four consecutive terms? Or you think Harris will lose and then somehow as a losing 1 term VP you will be a shoe-in to win nomination?

If you want to think like a sociopath whose only goal is the White House, you look at what Gavin Newsom does. Quietly position yourself as the candidate in waiting, and if it looks like it's Kamala's turn then be a loyal soldier and hope she crashes and burns with you not in the wreckage.

Exactly. It’s not in Whitmer’s interest to be on the losing ticket. She’s one of the fromtrunners in 2028 if/when Harris loses this year. Cooper running and losing for VP would severely taint his odds of winning the Senate seat that he pretty obviously wants in 2026. Shapiro has reelection to worry about if he lost, though he’d probably win reelection. Beshear is the only one that has nothing to lose from being on the ticket. It’d probably be a big boost to his national profile, and he has nowhere else to go.

Wouldn't Beshear basically be lame duck by the time he'd need to jump into 2028 primaries? He's only one year offset from Whitmer, Newsom and Pritzker. I don't see why his calculus is that different.

Beshear is term-limited and can’t win a Senate seat in Kentucky. As for why his situation is different from Newsom or Whitmer, they have much higher national prominence heading into 2028. Beshear being the losing VP nominee and acquitting himself well might be the one situation where he could put himself on the map for 2028 without being blamed for losing to Trump/Vance.

[Matty]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I must say, since Biden seems likely to go, I think there will be a big plunge for the new nominee in polling, up to 5%-less people will know them, they won't be an incumbent, and many of the rabid Bidenites won't be happy their vote got nullified (which Trump will use against the new nominee). The new candidate will need to make up that deficit. Some will be easy, some not so much.

There are no "rabid Bidenites" except perhaps for people who work for the administration.
Have you met a single person since the debate who plans to vote for Biden but has said they won't vote Democratic if he withdraws?

So you essentially saying that candidate doesn't matter, that nothing really matters, cause there is not "a single person since the debate who plans to vote for Biden but has said they won't vote Democratic if he withdraws"?

Of course, there are such voters. Now, these will likely cancel out (and more!) by the voters who left because of mental unfitness, but they do exist.

I didn’t say candidates don’t matter, or that nothing matters.  I’m not sure how you got that from my post at all.

I’m saying there are almost no voters who will refuse to vote Democratic if Biden isn’t on the ticket.

I -don’t- believe this is true the other way around.

There are many voters who won’t vote for Biden, but would vote for another Democrat.
And there are probably a number of voters who would vote for Biden but might not vote for a specific other Democrat (e.g. if the Dems nominated AOC).
There are just very, very few voters for whom Biden is the -only- Democrat they would vote for.

[windjammer]

It appears I'm one of the few forum Biden loyalists who think replacing him is a Bad idea.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It appears I'm one of the few forum Biden loyalists who think replacing him is a Bad idea.

Who are you going to vote for if he withdraws?

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/GregTSargent/status/1814028321669427547

Did not expect a Grady Little reference, but I’m here for it.

[LostInOhio]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

So he'd have higher margins with Black voters than VP HARRIS? Are you kidding me? They are completely delusional.

[Eraserhead]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

A collapse with what will most likely be a black nominee?

Yeah, I don't think so...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

Source?

[DrScholl]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

This is quite suspect. Where did you read this?

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

Source?

[windjammer]

It appears I'm one of the few forum Biden loyalists who think replacing him is a Bad idea.

Who are you going to vote for if he withdraws?

I can't vote I'm not american but I would be obviously voting for Harris

[Banana Republican]

Supposedly the Biden campaign is telling lawmakers that there will be a collapse in black turnout if Biden leaves race.  Biden is being told by staff that he is the only democrat who can maintain necessary margins with black voters.

That's so hilariously cute.

Even if Biden were outright telling people to vote for Trump (which he obviously won't be doing), the Barockstar will be telling people to get out there and vote for the youthful Democratic replacement ticket.

Who're they gonna listen to - the first black President, or old man Joe who is only President in the first place because of his past association with Barockstar Obama as his VP. I think we all know the answer to that one.

No great mystery here.

[Trends Are Fake]

Color me extremely skeptical that Harris can't get Biden levels of black turnout.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Color me extremely skeptical that Harris can't get Biden levels of black turnout.

Seriously. The first viable black woman for president… you think there’s not going to be great black turnout?

A lot of the Harris skepticism I heard in the black voter focus groups was more around her electability. It’s the same stuff I heard around 2007 with Obama and the community. They’re hardest on their own.

[Illiniwek]

I don't believe in the myth of Blue MAGA at large, but perhaps within "Team Biden".....

[Umengus]

the problem of harris will be to win in the rust belt.