Possible Biden withdrawal megathread (please use for all related news/speculation)

[Compuzled_One]

I must say, since Biden seems likely to go, I think there will be a big plunge for the new nominee in polling, up to 5%-less people will know them, they won't be an incumbent, and many of the rabid Bidenites won't be happy their vote got nullified (which Trump will use against the new nominee). The new candidate will need to make up that deficit. Some will be easy, some not so much.

There are no "rabid Bidenites" except perhaps for people who work for the administration.
Have you met a single person since the debate who plans to vote for Biden but has said they won't vote Democratic if he withdraws?

There's a good dozen people online that I've seen who think the fake news elite media and pollsters want to get him or whatever. Many of them will see the new nominee as an agent and at least be extremely ambivalent. This'd be a slightly less bad version of what Nikki Haley would be facing if she got nominated.

I've seen some of them too, but I'm wondering if they'll switch gears if Biden drops out and give Harris a strong endorsement.

Some might, but many will either ditch the ticket or be on the knives edge in my eyes. Hopefully they come back.

[Can't Bear]

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50102-trump-lead-biden-age-harris-vance-conventions-july-13-16-2024-economist-yougov-poll


Harris and Vance

• 79% of Democrats would approve of Kamala Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee if Biden steps aside
• But there's no consensus among Democrats that Harris would be a better nominee than Biden: 28% say Harris would be more likely than Biden to beat Trump while 24% say she'd be less likely to win and 32% they'd have about equal chances against Trump
• Americans are slightly less likely to say they'd support Harris over Trump than they are to support Biden over Trump: Trump leads Biden by 2 points and Harris by 5

• Among Democrats, Biden leads Trump by 87 points while Harris leads by 81 points
• Harris's net favorability among Americans is better than Biden's but worse than Trump's and that of Trump's pick for running mate, J.D. Vance: -9 for both Trump and Vance, -15 for Harris, -20 for Biden
• Vance's net favorability is +29 among Republicans, -46 among Democrats, and -8 among Independents
• Among registered voters who are not sure who they will vote for or say they will not vote, Trump's net favorability is -64 while Vance's is -8

[super6646]

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

“ Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.”

We shall see.

I’ve been skeptical, but if that campaign finance stat is true, I think he’s done.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I must say, since Biden seems likely to go, I think there will be a big plunge for the new nominee in polling, up to 5%-less people will know them, they won't be an incumbent, and many of the rabid Bidenites won't be happy their vote got nullified (which Trump will use against the new nominee). The new candidate will need to make up that deficit. Some will be easy, some not so much.

There are no "rabid Bidenites" except perhaps for people who work for the administration.
Have you met a single person since the debate who plans to vote for Biden but has said they won't vote Democratic if he withdraws?

I'm guessing these people are like the Cuomo truthers who would vote for him but not Hochul, aka nearly non-existant but visible on Twitter.

[PeteB]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

[MillennialModerate]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

The best to ticket is Shapiro/Whitmer. Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Next to zero chance we get that ticket but still….

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1813987331029778814

And yet there are tons of blueMAGA people on Twitter saying “we’ll do it without them! We don’t need those elites!” I have no idea why they are so devoted to the oldest and most boring dude ever but okay then.

Also pretending this is because of “one bad debate” is so disingenuous that it’s actually quite frustrating. 

I mean, I was of the opinion that he wasn’t up to the task long before the debate, but it’s hard to deny that the debate opened up many people’s eyes to just how poorly he is able to communicate and present himself at this stage. For whatever reason, maybe just the side-by-side comparison with Trump, it finally clicked with the media, Dem establishment, and many voters that four more years of this would be tenuous at best.

So I think it was “one bad debate” that began the snowball of all of this but it grew bigger and bigger  by his appearances since then and the media narrative.

[MillennialModerate]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

The best ticket is Shapiro/Whitmer. Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Next to zero chance we get that ticket but still….

[DrScholl]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

I would like that ticket, but unfortunately a lot of voters aren't prepared for an all woman ticket.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1813987331029778814

This is again just the bigger point, that it's untenable. Even if he wanted to continue on, he won't be able to run the campaign they need to in the end.

[wbrocks67]

Also if that one tweet where Whitmer put Kamala before Biden is any indication, she's on board for a Harris ticket (in general, not necessarily to be on it lol)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GregTSargent/status/1814012984588399087

[TechbroMBA]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

[PeteB]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

I would like that ticket, but unfortunately a lot of voters aren't prepared for an all woman ticket.

I get your POV, but imho, if there ever was an election year where this would play well, it is 2024.  We would already have a sitting President go out because of age, the main challenger who is a convicted felon and a VP pick who has criticised his boss in the past, but who is now more radical than him.  I think an all-women ticket would bring a refreshing change and fire up the anti-Trump voters.  Besides, Whitmer as the Governor of Michigan can directly talk to those voters in the rust belt swing states, and pretty much neutralize any potential advantage that Vance brings.  Of course, the male chauvinists in MAGA would never support it, but that is not whom this ticket would target.

[Mehmentum]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Which is why it should be Beshear.

[MillennialModerate]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President.
If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has
an existential feeling to it.

[DrScholl]

If I was a Democrat, this would be my preference for the ticket:

I would like that ticket, but unfortunately a lot of voters aren't prepared for an all woman ticket.

I get your POV, but imho, if there ever was an election year where this would play well, it is 2024.  We would already have a sitting President go out because of age, the main challenger who is a convicted felon and a VP pick who has criticised his boss in the past, but who is now more radical than him.  I think an all-women ticket would bring a refreshing change and fire up the anti-Trump voters.  Besides, Whitmer as the Governor of Michigan can directly talk to those voters in the rust belt swing states, and pretty much neutralize any potential advantage that Vance brings.  Of course, the male chauvinists in MAGA would never support it, but that is not whom this ticket would target.

That is possible. And post-Roe vs. Wade an all woman ticket might fire up women voters to turn out.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I never really believed that "Blue MAGA" was a thing but wow, the last few weeks have been eye-opening.

I've seen a few hardcore Biden supporters online say that the calls to replace him are "a coup like Jan. 6th,"  Dems that say Biden should step aside "must be primaried," and of course, "Democrats who want Biden gone are secret Trumpers/Republicans.".

While not as pervasive as actual MAGA, it's still crazy to see.

[Paleobrazilian]

I never really believed that "Blue MAGA" was a thing but wow, the last few weeks have been eye-opening.

I've seen a few hardcore Biden supporters online say that the calls to replace him are "a coup like Jan. 6th,"  Dems that say Biden should step aside "must be primaried," and of course, "Democrats who want Biden gone are secret Trumpers/Republicans.".

While not as pervasive as actual MAGA, it's still crazy to see.

Not saying it's all of them, but I already noticed a couple MAGA guys on Twitter disguising as Democrats and urging Biden to stay as the candidate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I never really believed that "Blue MAGA" was a thing but wow, the last few weeks have been eye-opening.

I've seen a few hardcore Biden supporters online say that the calls to replace him are "a coup like Jan. 6th,"  Dems that say Biden should step aside "must be primaried," and of course, "Democrats who want Biden gone are secret Trumpers/Republicans.".

While not as pervasive as actual MAGA, it's still crazy to see.

Not saying it's all of them, but I already noticed a couple MAGA guys on Twitter disguising as Democrats and urging Biden to stay as the candidate.

I have no doubt actual Blue MAGA Biden or Bust types exist, but I would bet actual money that 95% of people who post things like this are MAGA guys pretending to be Democrats or bots and trolls from the Internet Research Agency.

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/biden-health-election-drop-out.html

"Biden Says He’d Consider Dropping Out if a ‘Medical Condition’ Emerged"

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1814017991794639077

[Spectator]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President. If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has an existential feeling to it.

Being second fiddle on the losing ticket didn’t do anything to launch Tim Kaine into the conversation for a hypothetical 2020 campaign. And it arguably hurt Edwards in 2008 that he lost to Bush/Cheney. And Sarah Palin’s poll numbers took a dive after the 2008 loss.

It doesn’t do any good for Whitmer, Shapiro, or Cooper to be a part of a ticket they think will lose. Although if I’m Beshear I might take it since there’s nowhere else for him to go in Kentucky anymore.

[TechbroMBA]

Why do people think 2nd term governors who can serve out their term just in time to start the 2028 primaries want to be second banana on this ticket?

Because if they win they’re Vice President. If they don’t they have a leg up in 28.

AND this isn’t a normal election. This has an existential feeling to it.

1) You don't get a leg up for being a losing VP nominee. Just ask subsequent nominees Tim Kaine, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman. Hell, of those only Edwards made some noise and he was 3rd before the wheels came off.

2) If you win, there's almost no chance of becoming President. You think the Dems will get four consecutive terms? Or you think Harris will lose and then somehow as a losing 1 term VP you will be a shoe-in to win nomination?

If you want to think like a sociopath whose only goal is the White House, you look at what Gavin Newsom does. Quietly position yourself as the candidate in waiting, and if it looks like it's Kamala's turn then be a loyal soldier and hope she crashes and burns with you not in the wreckage.

[Woody]

from r/neoliberal:

Top comment: "Clyburns counter attack will save us"

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