Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

The by-elections will not be on July 28; they have to be called before July 28.

FYI, there'll be by-elections in Willowdale, Vancouver Quadra and Roberval this year as well, except their members haven't actually resigned yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jim Peterson (Willowdale) resigned yesterday. I had already included him.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River will also have a by-election at some point, as Gary Merasty has announced his intent to resign in August. Vancouver Quadra will become vacant on July 27 (so will probably take place on the same day as the current vacancies). I've heard nothing about Gauthier planning to resign from Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean before the next election.

I've heard Gauthier plans on resigning. If he does, the Conservatives will try and target his seat as they were within 8% there in 2006.

AAEVP?

Anyway I hope to see the Green Party (AKA the Satan Party (C)Earl Andrew Washburn 2007) do well in their by-elections. And the conservatives to be humiliated royally. That is all.

I doubt they will; none of the ridings mentioned seem to be very Green worthy. Hopefuly the Greens are kept down in Outremont so as not to split off the NDP vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Article about the Environics poll that showed Layton on top in Montreal:

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=7c26ad7b-23b7-4afb-a0b8-68b7db5a4400&k=84891

And, can you blame them?

BTW, the AAEVP is this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Alliance_Environment_Voters_Party_of_Canada

[Hatman 🍁]

If the elections have to be called by July 28th, by which date will they have to be held?

I think there needs to be a 36 day campaign, so we're looking at the beginning of September at the earliest.

Oddly enough, the Green Party has started sending out calls for donations and volunteers for all the byelections. I think they were hoping it would occur during the summer so there would be a lot of students available for the campaigns, but that didn't stop them in London last year.

Unfortunately for the NDP, Outremont is probably the most likely place for Green Party rallying and support. The riding is squeezed between McGill University and the Plateau, both of them renowned for their lefty, greeny leanings.

I thought you were a Liberal? Now you're receiving calls from the Green Party?

It's true the Greens are polling well in Quebec, and it could be a factor in Outremont. How much of a factor remains to be seen. Of course, the Greens don't mind a Liberal victory one bit since their one in the same these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh you adorably myopic politico: I'm a member of 5 political parties and receive updates from all of them! I guess you could say I'm doing comparative shopping. Unfortunately no party has offered any worthwhile products lately.

Well, I don't know about the other parties, but if you're a member of the NDP (which I doubt you are), then you can't be a member of another party as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's an odd thing, only two parties in the Canadian political spectrum have rules about exclusive membership: the NDP and the Conservatives. Discuss.

Neither party has a provincial party in Quebec, either. Surely if you're from Quebec, they'll let you join a provincial part as well. I think many tories are also adequistes. A friend of mine is a member of both the NDP and the ADQ

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There's now a map of Outremont from the 2006 election in the gallery. Enjoy I should make one of Toronto Centre as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great map!

Just some observations on it:

The intense Liberal support in the north is from two neighbourhoods: Queen Mary (or TMR, depending on the boundary) and Parc Extension. Both are lower/middle class and increasingly immigrant populated, particularly Lebanese and Vietnamese. Parc Extension is also where a large contingent of Portugese live; however, 'Little Portugal' is located further south in the riding in the Plateau. That area is around where the NDP support shows up. The NDP support there is from the anglo student and artist communities in Mile End.

The Bloc support in Outremont (arrondissement, not riding) isn't surprising. It peters out towards the East where Parc Avenue starts and the Hassidic Jewish population begins to rise; that's where those three lone, light pink districts are shown. UdM and McGill districts are predictably Bloc and Liberal strongholds. The two districts won by the Conservatives are literally adjacent to the railroad tracks. I can't think why they'd have won those and not the similar areas adjacent and further west.

The Conservative areas were weird. I didn't expect them to win any polls, so I didn't have their key on the map to begin with.

I must say, the partisan hack I am; it was nice to see the NDP win so many polls. Unfortunately, most of it was concentrated in Mile End, but there were pockets of NDP support further south in the riding. 

Also, the amount of polls the Bloc won surprised me. I also made a map of Hull-Aylmer not too long ago, and the amount of polls the Bloc won there also surprised me.

[Hatman 🍁]

September 17th has been set as the date for Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Outremont.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

Fool!

Ha! But, I'm not supersticious. Plus, I reckon $100 is equivelant to about 50 votes. That can do a lot.

A lot of New Democrats are pumped about this election; I dont feel that from the Liberals, despite Dion's legitimacy hanging on this race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

[Hatman 🍁]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

When did that happen? They hadn't chosen one last I checked. Oh well, an irrelevant candidate in a sea of strong candidates (well, Mulcair and Duguay at least, but the Conservatives can't actually win).

Well, Coulon, Duguay are both high profile candidates. Mulcair is- at least from the NDP stand point a "star candidate", and is higher then the other two no matter how you look at it. Gilson is neither.

I believe Gilson was picked last week or perhaps the week before, although it wasn't big news since he's your typical Bloc candidate- not very high profile. Of course, they typical Bloc candidate usually wins, as they hold most of the seats in Quebec, but I don't think it will help them in Outremont.

To make matters worse for the Liberals, Coulon has angered the Jewish population of the riding (which is at 10%) due to anti-semetic comments he has made in the past.  While these Jews wont vote for the NDP so much, they will probably vote Conservative, helping us out. The winning party may barely get over 30% in this one!

[Hatman 🍁]

Are the Greens running anyone in anything?

Probably, but they are irrelevant

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens will presumably run a candidate; they withdrew from Repentigny so as to focus all of their efforts on London North Centre, but May won't be running for a seat this time. I don't expect much from the Greens, especially since school is out and the NDP will be serious contenders.

School wont be out when the election happens in September. School  will very much be in.

Not to me, since I'm not supporting any of the Big 4 candidates in Outremont.

Have fun with that.

Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

Yeah, I'd like to see the NDP go away too.

Well, we certainly don't need two Liberal Parties either. Actually, we could do without either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

As I recall, the same predictions were made about the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party in the late 80s, when both were startup grassroots organizations that hadn't won any seats yet. The Reform Party, for their part, went through 3 federal elections fielding candidates without winning a single seat until 1993; 15 years later they had obliterated their closest ideological opponent and formed the government.

With all that in mind, I sincerely hope your impressions of the Green Party are accurate.

Correction: The Reform Party did not field candidates before 1988.

The Green Party is not the Reform or Bloc parties. The Greens have been around, and they have missed their chance to get elected. Their biggest problem is their support is too spread out, and well the NDP is preventing them from getting enough votes in an area to win.

Getting back to the bi-elections . . .

Normal Spector had a column in the Globe today about the Outremont race. I can't get the link for lack of a paid online subscription - sorry. He argued that it would hinge on Afghanistan, but politely skirted the issue of who's the front-runner. He did acknowledge that the NDP and the Conservatives would do best to team up against the Liberals in the hopes that one of them might be able to climb on top from the sides if the centrist Liberal vote was sufficiently depressed.

As far as things in Outremont go (I live there), I don't think anyone has noticed yet. There aren't many signs up and there have been no calls for donations or invitations to events for any of the parties. I doubt there will be until the last couple weeks of August. Most of the voters are probably on vacation now, so even fundraisers would be poorly attended.

Two things to keep in mind about the race:
1. It will change drastically around the first week of September. That's when all the McGill/Concordia/UQAM/U de M students will return. You can bet one of the 'frosh events' will be cavassing duties.

2. This is still very much Liberal/Bloc country. The NDP may be doing well in Quebec historically, but it's still below the threshold of a single seat. The Bloc and the Liberals both *need* a strong showing in Quebec to stave off disaster - so you can bet they'll be pulling all the stops. Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism, the riding is still predominantly weathy Francophones and second-generation immigrant families. These demographic groups have been reliable Bloc and Liberal bastions, respectively, for decades - even through the 2006 election that turned everything upside down in Quebec. The Conservatives and the NDP would be wise to remember that it's an uphill battle for both of them. The Greens are regrettably off the map as far as this election goes. If it's close enough, they may end up being spoilers for one party or another, but it would be by a couple thousand votes at most.

I agree it will be an uphill battle, but I do like what I am hearing. The Bloc candidate's a dud, the Liberal candidate was hand picked and controversial... Outremont is the NDP's best Quebec riding even though the NDP candidate barely campaigned in 2006 while Mulcair is working very hard... Jack Layton is the most popular leader in Montreal... and the NDP is the only party gaining in Quebec while the Liberals and the Bloc have dropped.  Certainly good signs that change may be coming. I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

IIRC the NDP were actually leading in the polls in Quebec at the time; the by-election happend during that strange period between Nationalists falling out of love with the PC's and the formation of the BQ. Edmondston was (and presumably is) a Nat.

While Mulcair is no separatist, I do see a "falling out of love" with the Bloc these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Coulon's statements are hardly more controversial than any of the stands taken by Mulclair on the same issue, or anything else he's happen to have done or said. The 'controversy' over Coulon stems from a single group that lodged a single protest - it's worth noting that no other Jewish groups have followed suit, nor have any Palestinian groups rushed to back Coulon. In short, the NDP's desire to make this a magic bullet that depresses Liberal support (which would be the only way the NDP could have a chance of coming close to winning) is bunk.

The NDP is playing up this issue? That's news to me. It's been discussed perhaps, but as I said, the NDP's only chance to gain on this is by Liberals losing votes rather than the NDP gaining.

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How many former environment ministers do they have running in this by-election?

Antother thing that should be mentioned is that recent polls indicate the Quebec Liberals are now in third place, indicating the unpopularity of Jean Charest. Mulcair rebelling against them can only help.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's equally likely that people will remember Mulclair for his time in the Liberal government and hold it against him. Keep in mind that the image of the NDP is less well-defined in Quebec; this is not to say that switching to the NDP will be completely overlooked, but they may see the switch the same way lefties see people who switch from/to the Liberals to/from the Conservatives: same sh**t, different pile.

Kinda hard to "switch" to the NDP when it doesn't exist on the provincial level. I'm sure most people will not blame him for that. Many NDPers in Quebec probably vote Liberal on a provincial level anyways... whilst holding their noses.

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Remember, this is a by-election and they are known for their earth shattering changes in votes. I can come up with numerous examples of this, but I am sure you are aware. I think the foundations for a huge change are being set in this by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think we're down to splitting hairs here.

Yes, you're very right that there are lots of by-elections that have produced upsets. But as you're no doubt aware, there are countless *other* by-elections that produced the status quo.

Whether or not these by-elections fall into the former or the latter category remains to be seen. There are definitely certain factors at play in Quebec and Canada that did not exist in 2006 and no doubt will influence the election, but without polls there's no way to tell how they're playing out on the ground. It's possible that there could be an upset - in any direction (Conservative landslide, anyone? *shudder*), but there have been similar conditions for potential change that never materialized. Look at the 1997 federal election, the 1999 Ontario provincial election, or the way that the 2006 election played out in places like PEI or BC.

All this to say that at the very least, you and I will be watching this election with the closest vision and god willing, one of us will be able to gloat over the other at the end of it (the alternative to that scenario, of course, being unthinkable).

Don't worry; the Conservatives wont win Outremont! Plus, I hate gloating, so can we agree not to do so?

We don't have any polls, but since you live in Outremont you will have a pretty good grasp of what's going on. Although, you're a tad biased, so I take what you say with a grain (well, maybe a few pounds- let's give you the benefit of the doubt) of salt

As for the other by-election, I don't see anything major there. None of the parties will be focusing any of their attention there except maybe the BQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting tidbit about Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: The Bloc candidate, going by her name (Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac), is Thai. That would make her only the second Asian candidate to run for the Bloc (May Chiu, who ran against Paul Martin in 2006, was the first), and she's very likely to be elected.

Her name sounds Vietnamese to me. And, the Bloc already has an Asian MP, Meili Faille.

[Hatman 🍁]

There will also be a by-election on the same day in Roberval-Lac Saint Jean where the tories lost by 8% in 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions in Quebec:

Outremont: Liberal HOLD with NDP second

If the NDP is finishing 2nd, where are all the BQ votes going? Certainly not the Liberals!

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

The media has identified this as a race between the NDP and the Liberals. Far be it for me to trust the media, but considering how bad a rap the NDP gets in the media, I have a hard time not believing them when they do have something good to say.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few. That proves that the Liberal's are so far more disorganized than the NDP is.

I'm not going to give any odds right now, as I see this race is very unpredictable. I can easily see either party winning.