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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections  (Read 26038 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« on: July 30, 2007, 08:26:57 PM »

I've donated $100 to the Thomas Mulcair campaign. That means he'll lose for sure, since whenever I donate money, the candidate loses.

Fool! Angry
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2007, 01:58:07 PM »

I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

IIRC the NDP were actually leading in the polls in Quebec at the time; the by-election happend during that strange period between Nationalists falling out of love with the PC's and the formation of the BQ. Edmondston was (and presumably is) a Nat.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2007, 02:13:58 PM »

Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism,

Of course, if Montreal Jews are anything like Jews over here, then they won't be swung away from their usual voting patterns (whatever they might be) and head off into the land of block-voting because of baseless allegations of anti-semitism or any such gimmicks.

If the allegations were (or in this case; are) true, things would likely be different o/c.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2007, 03:26:32 PM »

The PQ won the seat provincially, so it will be a really uphill battle for the Conservatives despite their good showing last time.

The Saguenay/Lac-Saint-Jean area is one part of Quebec where federal and provincial voting patterns are very different; the federal Tory vote is based on the votes of people who vote for the PLQ as much as the ADQ.

Still, a 4pt swing to the governing party in a by-election seems to be asking a lot. But Quebec can be strange.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2007, 04:06:33 PM »

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few.

Sign wars tend to be completely meaningless as a way of reading how a given seat is going to go.

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I would like to believe that. But it could just mean that the Liberals, dominant in the area since the '30's IIRC (or before then maybe?), don't see the need to advertise their existence in the way that the NDP does.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2007, 11:45:52 AM »

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.

Sometimes it doesn't but every so often... someone who I know quite well made an observation about the very strange sign-war in the Ealing Southall by-election, pointing out that while most small businesses in the Southall end of the constituency (and there are a hell of a lot of those; apparently its done to avoid upsetting potential customers) had signs up for at least three parties (usually four), the biggest sign was almost always the Labour one.

On the subject of signs in general, something Plaid do up here in low turnout (Assembly, Euro, Local) elections is to encourage their supporters to put up as many signs as possible in strong Plaid wards, but not to put any up in wards where they're weaker. Not sure how effective a tactic it is though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2007, 03:56:08 PM »

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before.

There's certainly some truth to that. I think much depends on why the dominant party is/was as strong in the area as it is/was; machine seats are much less likely to fall than seats won almost by default.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2007, 03:52:14 PM »

Any news?
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2007, 03:59:25 PM »

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

Tony Lit is heading for a landslide!!!!11

Grin
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2007, 04:01:18 PM »

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2007, 09:02:04 AM »

Polls close at 8:30pm...  I'm assuming that's 1:30 am in the UK for Al.

Actually, this time round I'm planning to wake up very early rather than go to bed very late. But thanks anyway Smiley

Btw, time for a prediction contest.

a) predict the winners of each by-election

b) predict their majorities (er... pluralities? victory margins? thee knoweth what I mean...)

c) predict which candidate will come third in each by-election

And as a tiebreaker: predict who'll get blamed for bad results for the Liberals and/or BQ. If the results are not bad for those two parties, predict how the NDP/Tories will attempt to spin their way to moral "victory".
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2007, 01:53:11 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2007, 03:49:46 AM by Dic Penderyn »

Outremont

NDP 47.5%
Lib 29.0%
BQ 10.9%
Con  8.6%
Green 2.2%
Oths.  1.8%

NDP maj. 18.5%

NDP gain from Liberal

Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean

Con  59.4%
BQ    27.0%
Lib     9.6%
NDP   2.3%
Green 1.7%

Con maj. 32.4%

Conservative gain from Bloc Quebecois

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot

BQ  42.1%
Con 37.5%
NDP  7.9%
Lib    7.4%
Green 3.7%
Oths.  1.6%

BQ maj. 4.6%

Bloc Quebecois hold
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