Canadian by-elections

[StateBoiler]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

[StateBoiler]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

Sorry I missed that one.

Why's the Bloc going down? General discontent with them? I understand that ADQ does not exist on the federal scene, but do their members run as Bloc candidates in federal elections?

[StateBoiler]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

[StateBoiler]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late...

Isn't that kind of "William Gladstone and Ireland" to play that card.

[StateBoiler]

Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.

Considering the Conservatives are operating as a minority government, why would the Liberals and the Bloc vote for the government to end if they're suffering? Harper would still need a majority of votes to support dissolution, right?