Canadian by-elections (user search)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections  (Read 26045 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« on: July 13, 2007, 03:17:31 PM »

If the elections have to be called by July 28th, by which date will they have to be held?
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2007, 03:32:24 AM »

Glory now, Dippers all!
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2007, 01:00:23 PM »

That's a bit extended, basing results in 308 constituencies based on 3 seats is ... you know Tongue

True, but it's what the BBC did after every by-election between 1992 and 1996 (most famously in Dudley West where the swing to Lab was so big, no Conservative MP's would have been elected so they had to add a Conservative MP for the computer model to work!)
Cheesy

I think they did it before 92 as well... although maybe only where there was a major swing. I recall reading that for the 86 Fulham by-election, it showed Labour one seat short of a majority.

Re Harry - what's the distribution just for Quebec?
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2007, 05:45:27 AM »

No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.

The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)

Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?

No, but it might be good evidence of the tactical voting that would be the additional kick to the Conservative Crotch in 1997

Which is sort of the point, although, unlike Labour tactical voters in Britain in 1993, Green tactical voters in Canada would probably split more or less evenly between the NDP and Liberals (though Mulcair's green credentials and green campaign probably won him most of the Green votes in this case).
Ah, but on these figures tactically refraining from voting green makes sense virtually everywhere except in rural Alberta.
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