Canadian by-elections

[Verily]

Outremont, QC
2006:
Jean Lapierre (LIB): 35.13%
Jacques Leonard (BQ): 28.81%
Leo-Paul Lauzon (NDP): 17.13%
Daniel Fournier (CON): 12.84%
Francois Pilon (GRN): 4.79%
Linda Sullivan (M-L): 0.43%
Phillip Paynter (PCN): 0.25%
Various Independents: 0.62%, total


Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, QC
2006:
Yvan Loubier (BQ): 56.0%
Huguette Guilhamon (CON): 24.8%
Stephane Deschenes (LIB): 9.8%
Joelle Chevrier (NDP): 5.5%
Jacques Tetreault (GRN): 3.9%


Toronto Centre, ON
2006:
Bill Graham (LIB): 52.2%
Michael Shapcott (NDP): 23.74%
Lewis Reford (CON): 18.21%
Chris Tindal (GRN): 5.21%
Johan Boyden (COM): 0.20%
Michel Prairie (IND): 0.17%
Liz White (AAEVP): 0.12%
Philip Fernandez (M-L): 0.11%


Willowdale, ON
Jim Peterson (LIB): 55.3%
Jovan Boseovski (CON): 29.2%
Rochelle Carnegie (NDP): 11.4%
Sharolyn Vettese (GRN): 4.1%




The only seriously contested of these will be Outremont, where the NDP is running former provincial Liberal Thomas Mulcair, a former Minister in Charest's government. I would go so far as to say that the NDP is probably favored to take the seat despite historically poor NDP showings in Quebec. (They've only ever won a single seat there, in a by-election in 1990, and their MP was a strong Quebec nationalist pre-BQ, which is most of the reason he won.)

The others are mostly interesting for second place. The Conservatives will want to show that they can pull closer to the BQ in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot, closer to the Liberals in Willowdale and ahead of the NDP in Toronto Centre; if they can't do any of these, it is highly unlikely that they will manage a majority at the next election. The NDP will want to improve its position in Toronto Centre, as will the Greens, who may manage to break into double digits in the riding given their national polling.

[Verily]

Jim Peterson (Willowdale) resigned yesterday. I had already included him.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River will also have a by-election at some point, as Gary Merasty has announced his intent to resign in August. Vancouver Quadra will become vacant on July 27 (so will probably take place on the same day as the current vacancies). I've heard nothing about Gauthier planning to resign from Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean before the next election.

[Verily]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

[Verily]

Duguay as the Conservative candidate has to have them down, too. The Conservatives will peel off a lot of Liberal voters, I suspect. The Bloc is likely to collapse completely, with a lot of their votes simply disappearing into the realm of apathy and most of the rest going NDP or Conservative (not Liberal). At one time, the Bloc might have stood a chance of winning this seat in a by-election; it's a sign of the times that they haven't even chosen a candidate yet.

Yes they have. However, he's not very notable in the least. He's a psychoanalyst. Jean-Paul Gilson
http://www.blocquebecois.org/fr/Dossiers/partielles2007/outremont.asp

When did that happen? They hadn't chosen one last I checked. Oh well, an irrelevant candidate in a sea of strong candidates (well, Mulcair and Duguay at least, but the Conservatives can't actually win).

[Verily]

The Greens will presumably run a candidate; they withdrew from Repentigny so as to focus all of their efforts on London North Centre, but May won't be running for a seat this time. I don't expect much from the Greens, especially since school is out and the NDP will be serious contenders.

[Verily]

I agree it will be an uphill battle, but I do like what I am hearing. The Bloc candidate's a dud, the Liberal candidate was hand picked and controversial... Outremont is the NDP's best Quebec riding even though the NDP candidate barely campaigned in 2006 while Mulcair is working very hard... Jack Layton is the most popular leader in Montreal... and the NDP is the only party gaining in Quebec while the Liberals and the Bloc have dropped.  Certainly good signs that change may be coming. I wonder what factors existed that got Phil Edmondston elected?

Edmonston was really a Bloquiste in NDP clothing. He was very strongly pro-independence and was elected mostly on a Quebec nationalist platform. The reason he refused to stand for reelection in 1993 was the NDP's official hardline federalist stance.

[Verily]

Interesting tidbit about Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: The Bloc candidate, going by her name (Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac), is Thai. That would make her only the second Asian candidate to run for the Bloc (May Chiu, who ran against Paul Martin in 2006, was the first), and she's very likely to be elected.

[Verily]

The PQ won the seat provincially, so it will be a really uphill battle for the Conservatives despite their good showing last time.

[Verily]

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

I think you're completely misreading this by-election. The NDP has come out of the gate extremely strong. The Liberals haven't really been fighting very hard, and the Bloc is invisible. Mulcair will draw a lot of voters directly away from the Liberals, and the recent decline of the Bloc leaves a lot of their voters up for grabs, many of whom, especially in a young riding like Outremont, are more left-wing protest voters than true separatists.

As for the Conservatives, they may win ~5000 votes, but they're irrelevant in Outremont and can't hope for better than a fairly distant fourth. If the Greens get their act together, the Conservatives could even slide into fifth. (Remember, the ADQ came in fifth provincially here, behind both the PVQ and QS. BQ/PQ voters may be willing to switch to the Conservatives in most of Quebec, but not in Outremont.)

I would be shocked if the NDP did worse than a reasonably close second place, and I think they have around even odds at winning.

[Verily]

That small sample won't give accurate results though.

No kidding. Where was this informal survey taken?

I wonder why Mulcair's signs are getting defaced.

Probably because the most hardcore Bloquistes are also hardcore Pequistes, and hate even former Pelquistes like Mulcair. That said, I do expect some "silent" crossover votes from leftist sovereigntists for Mulcair, but not from the rabid ones.

[Verily]

Shouldn't Turmel have joined the CAP a long time ago?

Also, what's the record number of candidates in a by-election in Canada?

[Verily]

Angus-Reid's been very favorable to the Conservatives, so only a four-point Conservative lead is actually quite good for the Liberals.

Still no polls on the by-elections, but the Liberals have reportedly finally started making an effort in Outremont. It's really quite late for what should be a well-oiled machine revving up.

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before. That may be a good part of the Outremont Liberals' problem. I'm still predicting a Mulcair and NDP victory.

[Verily]

Can't be trending NDP too strongly; they got the same result in 2006 as in 1984, and it still wasn't good for second.

[Verily]

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign in Outremont. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

No one really cares about Roberval or St-Hyacinthe, which is probably bad for the Conservatives in Roberval.

[Verily]

Not a peep of "real" news, though I keep hearing anecdotal evidence that the NDP continues to dominate the campaign. (Whether this will translate into votes or not is something else.)

Tony Lit is heading for a landslide!!!!11

LOL, well, I think it's safe to say that the NDP will at least manage second place. Though it would be quite humiliating for them if they didn't.

Layton, McDonough and Broadbent were all campaigning in Outremont over the weekend; no current or former leaders of other parties have shown their faces. (Though this shouldn't be a surprise; Chretien, Martin or Dion would just energize strategic votes for the NDP, and the Bloc is ignoring Outremont and focusing on holding its own in Roberval.)

[Verily]

There really are the makings of an orange tidal wave in Quebec right now. The irony of a right-wing party breaking in at the provincial level and a left-wing party breaking in on the federal level would be all too typical.

[Verily]

Too bad it wasn't the Conservative candidate in Roberval, where they actually stand a chance.

[Verily]

Too bad about Roberval, but polls of individual ridings are notoriously poor.

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal? Clearly most of Quebec, Montreal especially, is left-leaning and might be inclined to support the NDP. Could we see many of the Montreal ridings where the Liberals normally win 60-80% of the vote suddenly become Liberal-NDP battlegrounds once the NDP can present itself as a viable alternative in Quebec?

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

It is also of note that the initial NDP breakthrough was a result of separatism, and that Edmonston was a staunch separatist who refused to run for reelection precisely because the NDP's official line was the most hard-line federalist of all the parties. This time the situation is very different; the NDP appears to be winning on its actual ideology rather than dislike of the governing party. (Duceppe also won in 1990.)

I suppose my point is that an NDP victory here could change the dynamics of races in Montreal. Yes, in this election, the NDP is picking up mostly disaffected Bloquistes (though, given the low Conservative numbers, there must be some Liberal-to-NDP transfers as well). However, if the staunch Liberal voters of West Montreal decide that there is another federalist party worth considering, the NDP could suddenly gain quite a bit of ground. Part of the reason they are shunted to the side in Montreal is that most people who might consider voting for them see them as irrelevant.

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

Dion will hold on to the next election, and if he doesn't win, he's toast. Although, rumours have it that digruntled Ignatieffites are trying to sabotage the campaign in Outremont.

That's really stupid of them. The only potential Liberal leader who'd do worse in Montreal than Dion is Ignatieff (though at least he's reneged on some of his neoconservative views).

Unfortunately, if Dion gets pushed out it won't be in favor of Kennedy, who will be saddled with having engineered Dion's victory. Unfortunate because Kennedy is, IMO, the only one who can really revive the Liberals.

[Verily]

Lapierre (the former MP who resigned in Outremont) is blaming Dion for screwing up the by-election and defending Ignatieff. Sounds like the Liberals have given up before the first vote is cast.

[Verily]

Outremont:
NDP wins
1,500-vote margin over Liberals
Bloc in third

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot:
Bloc wins
5,000-vote margin over Conservatives
NDP in third

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Conservatives win
200-vote margin over Bloc
Liberals in third

Dion will be blamed for the dismal Liberal results (losing Outremont, fifth place in Saint-Hyacinthe), and calls will increase for him to step down as leader of the Liberals, though he will not fall for at least the next few weeks. The Bloc will be upset with its results (third in Outremont and losing Roberval by a hair), but will not experience any sort of internal trauma nor blame anyone in particular (other than imperialist anglo-Canada).

[Verily]

NDP leads in very early returns from Outremont. The Conservatives have a big lead in Roberval with 80/194 reporting. Bloc ahead about 10% in Saint-Hyacinthe with only a few polls reporting.

[Verily]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late, and the Bloc is feeling the pressure. There are a lot of soft nationalists in Quebec, especially the North, who are easily wooed away from the Bloc by platitudes.