Canadian by-elections

[Harry Hayfield]

Outremont: NDP 48% (+30%) Lib 29% (-6%) BQ 11% (-18%) Con 9% (-4%) Green 2% (-3%) Others 2% (+2%). NDP GAIN from Lib on a swing of 18% from Lib to NDP

Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 59% (+22%) BQ 27% (-18%) Lib 10% (+2%) NDP 2% (-4%) Green 2% (-2%) Con GAIN from Bloc on a swing of 20% from Bloc to Con

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: BQ 42% (-14%) Con 38% (+13%) NDP 8% (+3%) Lib 7% (-3%)  Green 4% (n/c) Others 2% (+2%) Bloc HOLD on a swing of 13.5% from Bloc to Con

This reminds me rather a lot of the Blaenau Gwent / Bromley by-election results. One incredible result and one that staggered belief! Overall, what I think we can tell is that the Bloc are losing support to the Conservatives and given that the Conservatives need 30 gains for an overall majority and that on these swings 31 Bloc seats would go down, I think that the Conservative PM must fancy his chances at an election (but do you really think Canada would appreciate another winter election?)

[Harry Hayfield]

Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)

As Peter Snow would say "This is just a bit of fun". Forecast House of Commons based on those three by-elections.

Con 191 (+61)
Lib 62 (-40)
NDP 29 (n/c)
Bloc 25 (-26)
Ind 1 (n/c)
Con majority of 74

[Harry Hayfield]

That's a bit extended, basing results in 308 constituencies based on 3 seats is ... you know

True, but it's what the BBC did after every by-election between 1992 and 1996 (most famously in Dudley West where the swing to Lab was so big, no Conservative MP's would have been elected so they had to add a Conservative MP for the computer model to work!)

[Harry Hayfield]

Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)

Quebec only Forecast:

Con GAIN from Bloc: Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean, Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Saint-Maurice--Champlain, Québec, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, Trois-Rivières, Richmond--Arthabaska, Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia, Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord, Berthier--Maskinongé, Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, Brome--Missisquoi, Shefford, Compton--Stanstead, Brossard--La Prairie, Beauharnois--Salaberry, Gatineau, Alfred-Pellan, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques, Saint-Lambert, Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Laval, Ahuntsic,
Joliette, Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup, Drummond

Con +30
Lib n/c
Bloc -29
NDP n/c
Ind -1