Canadian by-elections

[ag]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

[ag]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

Sorry I missed that one.

Why's the Bloc going down? General discontent with them? I understand that ADQ does not exist on the federal scene, but do their members run as BQ candidates in federal elections?

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

[ag]

So far, NDP is leading in Outremont, Con in Roberval and PQ in St. Hyacinthe. Outremont barely started counting, though.

[ag]

Roberval seems done - 57% w/ over half reporting. The suspense of the night (if any) will be Outremont.

[ag]

Outremont seems to go very slow (10/168 precincts so far reported). For an urban riding with educated voters, this is very slow. Do they have to report in French (would explain it   )?

[ag]

Ain't looking good for Libs in Outremont - w/ 12/168 reportng NDP has almost double their vote.

[ag]

CTV declared Roberval for Con - w/ 130/194 reporting they have 58.4% to 28.6% for Bloc.

[ag]

The NDP is still going up. 50.7%. This might end up looking like Hamilton East.

I don't think this will be overturned.  It's a big enough sample for a single riding and the margin is big.  Well, NDP looks like making history.

[ag]

Actually, NDP has gone down to 47.5 and Libs up to 29.5 w/ 19/68 reporting. Still, I think it's NDP.

[ag]

Green's seem to be losing all deposits (is it 5% in Canada?)

[ag]

3 people voted for John Turmel. LOL

4, as we speak. The real gap is shrinking though.

[ag]

Liberals are rallying. Perhaps we spoke too soon. Interesting battle for third in Saint-Hyacinthe, too.

True. And Roberval is a landslide - Cons briefly touched 59% a few minutes ago.

[ag]

I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives beating the Bloc in Outremont, so we may be looking at heavily Liberal/federalist polls coming in now. The NDP/Bloc/soft nationalist polls might be later.

NDP rebounds somewhat.

Hey, this is Outremont. They don't even know enough French to report on time.  Con can beat BQ, why not?

[ag]

Just to note: a new batch of polls increased the NDP advantage over Libs, but also the Con advantage over BQ.

[ag]

I find it hard to imagine the Conservatives beating the Bloc in Outremont, so we may be looking at heavily Liberal/federalist polls coming in now. The NDP/Bloc/soft nationalist polls might be later.

NDP rebounds somewhat.

Hey, this is Outremont. They don't even know enough French to report on time.  Con can beat BQ, why not?

Actually, you are right - 43 thousand francophones, 36 thousand - others, 13 thousand anglophones, 3 thousand "multiple mother tongues".  For some reason, I got the impression there it was a lot less French.

There are quite a few francophones in Outremont, more than half I think. The problem for the Bloc is that (under normal circumstances) only about 2/3 of francophones vote for them while essentially no anglophones do.

[ag]

Ick. The Conservatives are catching up in Saint-Hyacinthe.

That's just what I wanted to note.

[ag]

I have a feeling, the throne speach is going to be bold

Should we start Canada 2008 thread already?
 

[ag]

NDP just shy of 50% again, this time with over 1/3 reporting. This is over. Big NDP victory, and a good night for the Conservatives, too.

And you were right - Con is loosing to BQ in Outremont (though, it's pretty close!)

But St. Hyacinthe is still worth wathching - it's been close all night, so far.

[ag]

St. Hyacinthe gap is closing - it's just over 6% now (43.0% to 36.8%) and most polls are still to report.  So, this is where the night will be long.