Canadian by-elections
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cp
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« Reply #75 on: August 21, 2007, 11:44:06 AM »

 . . . the frightening comment about Canadian democracy that is aside, I guess you're right.

Getting past the survey and back to the election now, I have a question for anyone fluent in french here. I've been scanning the Quebec french media for weeks looking for information and so far I've come up short. Opinion articles occasionally make reference to the by-elections, but only obliquely and in reference to another point. They haven't seemed to pick up on Mulclair's status (whether as an interloper, a shining star, a turncoat, a saviour, or whatever) or about the fortunes of the Liberal party, both of which have been delved into deeply by the ROC media.

Is there any explanation for this? Are there articles I've missed?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #76 on: August 21, 2007, 12:02:18 PM »

I have Le Devoir here, but not La Presse and there's miserably few articles on the by-elections, I remember 1 a few days ago on the Neorhino running candidates, but that's all there was (maybe i missed a few)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2007, 12:18:20 PM »

. . . the frightening comment about Canadian democracy that is aside, I guess you're right.

Getting past the survey and back to the election now, I have a question for anyone fluent in french here. I've been scanning the Quebec french media for weeks looking for information and so far I've come up short. Opinion articles occasionally make reference to the by-elections, but only obliquely and in reference to another point. They haven't seemed to pick up on Mulclair's status (whether as an interloper, a shining star, a turncoat, a saviour, or whatever) or about the fortunes of the Liberal party, both of which have been delved into deeply by the ROC media.

Is there any explanation for this? Are there articles I've missed?

I know there's been plenty in the English media, from what I've read.
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cp
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« Reply #78 on: August 21, 2007, 03:18:20 PM »

The Gazette's doing a reasonable job, but there's very little journalism taking place. They mostly just copy stories from elsewhere.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #79 on: August 28, 2007, 02:16:34 PM »

There are now 12 candidates in the field, including 5 independents (one of them being John Turmel Smiley ). In addition to the five major parties, the Canadian Action Party is running as is the newly registered "neorhino.ca".
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Verily
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« Reply #80 on: August 28, 2007, 05:23:58 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2007, 05:27:45 PM by Verily »

Shouldn't Turmel have joined the CAP a long time ago?

Also, what's the record number of candidates in a by-election in Canada?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #81 on: August 28, 2007, 08:01:58 PM »

Probably Hamilton East in 1996. There were 12 candidates:

COPPS, Sheila    Lib         12,268     
MARSTON, Wayne    N.D.P.    retired Bell technician     6,941     
TOMASIC, Angie    P.C.    bank manager     3,662     
SWECK, Andy    Ref.    supervisor     2,750     
CAMPBELL, Ken    Ind.    clergyman     287     
AMBAS, George    Ind.    retail business     160     
PRIESNITZ, Wendy    G.P.    publisher     152     
MALCOLM, Glenn    Ind.    consultant     113     
EMMANUEL, Tristan Alexander    C.H.P.    trucking     78     
KNIGHT, Victor    Ind.    teacher     70     
AMOS, Bill    N.L.P.    business consultant     64     
OLITO, Charles    C.P.    retired     52     
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #82 on: August 28, 2007, 08:06:08 PM »

Actually, there were 13 candidates. For some reason, the parliament website ommitted John C. Turmel's vote total; he received 21 votes.
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« Reply #83 on: August 31, 2007, 03:30:37 PM »

Might as well post this poll here.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/17059
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Verily
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« Reply #84 on: August 31, 2007, 03:35:11 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2007, 03:37:33 PM by Verily »

Angus-Reid's been very favorable to the Conservatives, so only a four-point Conservative lead is actually quite good for the Liberals.

Still no polls on the by-elections, but the Liberals have reportedly finally started making an effort in Outremont. It's really quite late for what should be a well-oiled machine revving up.

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before. That may be a good part of the Outremont Liberals' problem. I'm still predicting a Mulcair and NDP victory.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #85 on: August 31, 2007, 03:56:08 PM »

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before.

There's certainly some truth to that. I think much depends on why the dominant party is/was as strong in the area as it is/was; machine seats are much less likely to fall than seats won almost by default.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #86 on: August 31, 2007, 04:24:28 PM »

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before.

There's certainly some truth to that. I think much depends on why the dominant party is/was as strong in the area as it is/was; machine seats are much less likely to fall than seats won almost by default.

Yes, I definitely live in a machine seat, which goes by the name "McGuinty".
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« Reply #87 on: August 31, 2007, 08:15:13 PM »

Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #88 on: August 31, 2007, 09:39:00 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2007, 12:53:19 AM by Senator EarlAW »

Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.

Ottawa-Vanier is certainly trending NDP thanks very much to Rick Dagenais. It's also home to one of the most left wing neighbourhoods in the city, Sandy Hill.  Alex Munter's vote there is proof of that.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #89 on: August 31, 2007, 09:49:20 PM »

From another forum,

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Hashemite
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« Reply #90 on: September 01, 2007, 08:49:19 AM »

Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.

Ottawa-Vanier is certainly trending NDP thanks very much to Rick Dagenais. It's also home to one of the most left wing neighbourhoods in the city, Sany Hill.  Alex Munter's vote there is proof of that.

I certainly agree, in fact the 2004 Conservative vote here was lower than the combined 2000 CA+PC vote!
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Verily
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« Reply #91 on: September 02, 2007, 11:22:45 PM »

Can't be trending NDP too strongly; they got the same result in 2006 as in 1984, and it still wasn't good for second.
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« Reply #92 on: September 03, 2007, 08:35:31 AM »

Can't be trending NDP too strongly; they got the same result in 2006 as in 1984, and it still wasn't good for second.

Of course, the NDP can't hope gaining Ottawa-Vanier for the next election, but the NDP vote is getting some high scores compared to those in the 90s and 80s (except 84) and 70s. And with the Liberals not getting a majority of votes anymore, it shows some minor trend to NDP.
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cp
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« Reply #93 on: September 03, 2007, 03:37:56 PM »

The NDP vote would have to be doing better than it did in the 90s; the NDP was very nearly wiped out in 1993 and 2000.

Trends as small as the ones in Ottawa-Vanier can be ascribed to personality and local popularity. It doesn't show an aggregate shift.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #94 on: September 03, 2007, 03:55:16 PM »

The NDP vote would have to be doing better than it did in the 90s; the NDP was very nearly wiped out in 1993 and 2000.

Trends as small as the ones in Ottawa-Vanier can be ascribed to personality and local popularity. It doesn't show an aggregate shift.

Rick Dagenais = the NDP in Ottawa Vanier. When I say the riding is trending NDP, I never said I didn't mean trending towards Dagenais.
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« Reply #95 on: September 03, 2007, 04:43:38 PM »

I wonder where the NDP vote comes from in Vanier.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #96 on: September 03, 2007, 04:54:26 PM »


What, the riding? I told you, Sandy Hill. Plus, there's some support in Lower Town and Lindenlea. There's little support in Vanier itself though.
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« Reply #97 on: September 03, 2007, 05:05:28 PM »

I noticed the area where Montreal Rd. becomes Rideau after the bridge is quite poor and lots of immigrants there- is that Sandy Hills there?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #98 on: September 03, 2007, 06:00:07 PM »

I noticed the area where Montreal Rd. becomes Rideau after the bridge is quite poor and lots of immigrants there- is that Sandy Hills there?

Sort of. Rideau Street is the border between Sandy Hill (no S) and Lower Town. Sandy Hill is towards the south, and has many university students/university graduates. Lower Town, which is north of Rideau Street has always been a traditionally lower class neighbourhood. While it may be lower class, Lower Town has a lot of character and is home to most of Ottawa's night life (the famous ByWard market is in Lower Town).
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
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« Reply #99 on: September 03, 2007, 06:45:06 PM »

Godless liberals of course.
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