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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2007, 03:26:32 PM »

The PQ won the seat provincially, so it will be a really uphill battle for the Conservatives despite their good showing last time.

The Saguenay/Lac-Saint-Jean area is one part of Quebec where federal and provincial voting patterns are very different; the federal Tory vote is based on the votes of people who vote for the PLQ as much as the ADQ.

Still, a 4pt swing to the governing party in a by-election seems to be asking a lot. But Quebec can be strange.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #51 on: August 16, 2007, 03:35:12 PM »

My predictions in Quebec:

Outremont: Liberal HOLD with NDP second

If the NDP is finishing 2nd, where are all the BQ votes going? Certainly not the Liberals!
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« Reply #52 on: August 16, 2007, 04:28:14 PM »

I'd say some NDP and Con, but the Bloc maintains a decent score, most likely over 20%
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cp
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« Reply #53 on: August 17, 2007, 10:54:21 AM »

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.
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« Reply #54 on: August 17, 2007, 11:02:40 AM »

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

Agreed, BQ should be third, Conservatives fourth.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #55 on: August 17, 2007, 12:49:16 PM »

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

The media has identified this as a race between the NDP and the Liberals. Far be it for me to trust the media, but considering how bad a rap the NDP gets in the media, I have a hard time not believing them when they do have something good to say.
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Verily
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« Reply #56 on: August 17, 2007, 10:43:59 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2007, 10:57:27 PM by Verily »

If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

I think you're completely misreading this by-election. The NDP has come out of the gate extremely strong. The Liberals haven't really been fighting very hard, and the Bloc is invisible. Mulcair will draw a lot of voters directly away from the Liberals, and the recent decline of the Bloc leaves a lot of their voters up for grabs, many of whom, especially in a young riding like Outremont, are more left-wing protest voters than true separatists.

As for the Conservatives, they may win ~5000 votes, but they're irrelevant in Outremont and can't hope for better than a fairly distant fourth. If the Greens get their act together, the Conservatives could even slide into fifth. (Remember, the ADQ came in fifth provincially here, behind both the PVQ and QS. BQ/PQ voters may be willing to switch to the Conservatives in most of Quebec, but not in Outremont.)

I would be shocked if the NDP did worse than a reasonably close second place, and I think they have around even odds at winning.
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cp
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« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2007, 10:00:38 AM »

I must disagree.

The Liberals are fighting tooth and nail for this riding. The party is dedicated to keeping the seat to avoid looking weak anywhere, particularly in Quebec where they feel their fortunes are most threatened by the Conservatives. Liberals, to their credit, have recognized the real threat that the NDP poses to them in that riding and are diverting their resources there - not that they'd do much good in the other by-elections, mind you.

You're also mistaken about Outremont's demographics. The U de M crowd is definitely young and lefty, but they're also quite dedicated to the separatist cause. It's 'cool' among the uni-aged students, for some reason. Nevertheless, most of the Bloc support comes from the aging, well-off, francophone boomers who live in the fancy homes and flats west of Ave du Parc. They don't lean any particular way and vote Bloc out of political and linguistic solidarity (I'm speculating) and could split to either the Liberals or the Conservatives.

This is the nut the NDP would have to crack to really change the outcome, but unfortunately it's the toughest one. Despite Jack Layton, the issues, and the Liberal misfortunes of late, the NDP doesn't have much credibility in Quebec. Mulclair is the best candidate to combat this image of 'anglo boyscouts', but it's a long road and I don't think he's traveled far enough on it, despite the good press.
The NDP has a good shot here, but it's nowhere close to even odds. Maybe 2:1. Take a look at EarlAW's map from a few posts ago and you'll see why the NDP has a tough road ahead. The areas they won last election are in the sliver of Outremont that covers the Plateau, which bears little resemblence to the rest of the riding.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2007, 02:42:55 PM »

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few. That proves that the Liberal's are so far more disorganized than the NDP is.

I'm not going to give any odds right now, as I see this race is very unpredictable. I can easily see either party winning.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #59 on: August 18, 2007, 04:06:33 PM »

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few.

Sign wars tend to be completely meaningless as a way of reading how a given seat is going to go.

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I would like to believe that. But it could just mean that the Liberals, dominant in the area since the '30's IIRC (or before then maybe?), don't see the need to advertise their existence in the way that the NDP does.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #60 on: August 18, 2007, 06:36:54 PM »

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few.

Sign wars tend to be completely meaningless as a way of reading how a given seat is going to go.

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I would like to believe that. But it could just mean that the Liberals, dominant in the area since the '30's IIRC (or before then maybe?), don't see the need to advertise their existence in the way that the NDP does.

Well, if the Liberals were as desperate to keep this seat as everyone says they are, you think they'd put up more signs. And, I know they're pretty meaningless in terms of actual votes, but they probably do say something about organization.
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cp
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« Reply #61 on: August 20, 2007, 11:36:51 AM »

I doubt they could find many places to put up more! I'm in a cafe in Outremont right now; having completed a survey of a few neighbourhoods I counted 25 posters for the Tories, 35 for the Bloc, 38 for the Liberals and 71 for the NDP, albeit the NDP's signs are the 6X12" variety whereas the other parties use the larger traditional signs (24X30" I believe).

I did notice that well over half of the NDP's signs are concentrated in the Plateau area of Outremont, dotting almost every side street. The other parties' posters tend to be on major thoroughfares and more evenly distributed between the Plateau, Mile End, Queen Mary, Villray, and Snowdon.

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #62 on: August 20, 2007, 11:45:52 AM »

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.

Sometimes it doesn't but every so often... someone who I know quite well made an observation about the very strange sign-war in the Ealing Southall by-election, pointing out that while most small businesses in the Southall end of the constituency (and there are a hell of a lot of those; apparently its done to avoid upsetting potential customers) had signs up for at least three parties (usually four), the biggest sign was almost always the Labour one.

On the subject of signs in general, something Plaid do up here in low turnout (Assembly, Euro, Local) elections is to encourage their supporters to put up as many signs as possible in strong Plaid wards, but not to put any up in wards where they're weaker. Not sure how effective a tactic it is though.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #63 on: August 20, 2007, 11:51:35 AM »

I doubt they could find many places to put up more! I'm in a cafe in Outremont right now; having completed a survey of a few neighbourhoods I counted 25 posters for the Tories, 35 for the Bloc, 38 for the Liberals and 71 for the NDP, albeit the NDP's signs are the 6X12" variety whereas the other parties use the larger traditional signs (24X30" I believe).

I did notice that well over half of the NDP's signs are concentrated in the Plateau area of Outremont, dotting almost every side street. The other parties' posters tend to be on major thoroughfares and more evenly distributed between the Plateau, Mile End, Queen Mary, Villray, and Snowdon.

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.

What about signs on private property?
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cp
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« Reply #64 on: August 20, 2007, 02:11:09 PM »

Basically none, but that's not saying much. Most of Outremont is low-rise apartment buildings where the lawnspace is public, and generally off-limits as a sign of respect - it's an unofficial rule. That said, I didn't see any signs in the windows facing the streets in either commercial or residential areas.

Another probably useless observation I just made is that of vandalism. In the Plateau area the Bloc signs are almost always defaced or destroyed - Hitler mustaches are quite popular, as are swastikas in Gilles Duceppes dreamy blue eyes. By contrast, in the U de M area it's the NDP that's getting the brunt of the blow. Mulclair's beard precludes the aforementioned trope, but blotted out eyes, devil horns, and various crude speech bubbles are common. Liberal and Conservative signs are pristine by comparison, although I've noticed they tend to be placed higher and in less accessible areas (highway medians, for example).

I conducted an unofficial survey of people I bumped into on the street and stood in lines with today. The results were troubling. Out of 25 people, few were aware that an election was upcoming ("Oh, so THAT's what all those signs are for!"). When pressed, the voting intentions were surprising. The Bloc has been wiped off the map, getting only 1 vote. The NDP garnered 2. The Liberals have 10 and the Tories 5. The other 7 vowed not to vote or insisted they'd decide a few seconds in advance and no earlier.

So much for our keen prediction skills.
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« Reply #65 on: August 20, 2007, 02:50:25 PM »

That small sample won't give accurate results though.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #66 on: August 20, 2007, 03:51:54 PM »

That small sample won't give accurate results though.

No kidding. Where was this informal survey taken?

I wonder why Mulcair's signs are getting defaced.
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cp
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« Reply #67 on: August 20, 2007, 08:32:52 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2007, 09:03:00 PM by cp »

I really didn't intend for my survey to be either scientific or reliable. More of a joke, but still interesting.

As for the NDP signs, I can't really explain it. There's no reason for any antipathy against the NDP like there is for the Bloc or the Liberals. Perhaps it's just the signs that stood out when I was scanning things from the street/bus.

I conducted the survey as I was running errands around Outremont. I talked to 5 people along Cote-Sainte-Cathrine near U de M, another 5 at the corner of Cote-Sainte-Cathrine and Cote-des-Neiges and the last 15 along Boul. St. Laurent between Bernard and des Pins. I think I hit 4 or 5 different neighbourhoods depending on how you draw the lines; the U de M areas were/are hardcore Bloc and I brushed the one district that the Tories won in 2006. But like I said, there's really no reason to take any of these results seriously - although they're probably the best polling that's been done so far Tongue.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #68 on: August 20, 2007, 09:14:41 PM »

It'd be nice to see some actual polls. I know they did one in Outremont for the 2006 election.
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cp
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« Reply #69 on: August 20, 2007, 09:40:48 PM »

Well, that was a general election after all.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some polling closer to the election date. That in and of itself could be quite interesting. If it shows one party doing well, it may give it momentum. Whether it's the NDP or the Liberals it could upset things in a jiffy.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #70 on: August 20, 2007, 11:05:16 PM »

Well, that was a general election after all.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some polling closer to the election date. That in and of itself could be quite interesting. If it shows one party doing well, it may give it momentum. Whether it's the NDP or the Liberals it could upset things in a jiffy.

Of course, there's probably internal polling. Unfortunately, I don't have any internal polling sources like I once had. 
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Verily
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« Reply #71 on: August 20, 2007, 11:27:52 PM »

That small sample won't give accurate results though.

No kidding. Where was this informal survey taken?

I wonder why Mulcair's signs are getting defaced.

Probably because the most hardcore Bloquistes are also hardcore Pequistes, and hate even former Pelquistes like Mulcair. That said, I do expect some "silent" crossover votes from leftist sovereigntists for Mulcair, but not from the rabid ones.
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« Reply #72 on: August 21, 2007, 07:15:11 AM »

If we take your poll seriously, the results are:

Liberal 40%
Conservative 20%
NDP 8%
Bloc 4%
Undecided 28%

Divide 28 undecided by 5 (number of candidates) and get +5.6% for each party

Liberal 45.6%
Conservative 25.6%
NDP 13.6%
Bloc 9.6%


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cp
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« Reply #73 on: August 21, 2007, 11:03:44 AM »

Please, I beg of you, do not take my survey seriously.
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« Reply #74 on: August 21, 2007, 11:06:55 AM »

It's your survey or nothing Tongue
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