Canadian by-elections

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

It is also of note that the initial NDP breakthrough was a result of separatism, and that Edmonston was a staunch separatist who refused to run for reelection precisely because the NDP's official line was the most hard-line federalist of all the parties. This time the situation is very different; the NDP appears to be winning on its actual ideology rather than dislike of the governing party. (Duceppe also won in 1990.)

I suppose my point is that an NDP victory here could change the dynamics of races in Montreal. Yes, in this election, the NDP is picking up mostly disaffected Bloquistes (though, given the low Conservative numbers, there must be some Liberal-to-NDP transfers as well). However, if the staunch Liberal voters of West Montreal decide that there is another federalist party worth considering, the NDP could suddenly gain quite a bit of ground. Part of the reason they are shunted to the side in Montreal is that most people who might consider voting for them see them as irrelevant.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

Dion will hold on to the next election, and if he doesn't win, he's toast. Although, rumours have it that digruntled Ignatieffites are trying to sabotage the campaign in Outremont.

[Verily]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

Dion will hold on to the next election, and if he doesn't win, he's toast. Although, rumours have it that digruntled Ignatieffites are trying to sabotage the campaign in Outremont.

That's really stupid of them. The only potential Liberal leader who'd do worse in Montreal than Dion is Ignatieff (though at least he's reneged on some of his neoconservative views).

Unfortunately, if Dion gets pushed out it won't be in favor of Kennedy, who will be saddled with having engineered Dion's victory. Unfortunate because Kennedy is, IMO, the only one who can really revive the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls close at 8:30pm...  I'm assuming that's 1:30 am in the UK for Al.

[Verily]

Lapierre (the former MP who resigned in Outremont) is blaming Dion for screwing up the by-election and defending Ignatieff. Sounds like the Liberals have given up before the first vote is cast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls close at 8:30pm...  I'm assuming that's 1:30 am in the UK for Al.

Actually, this time round I'm planning to wake up very early rather than go to bed very late. But thanks anyway

Btw, time for a prediction contest.

a) predict the winners of each by-election

b) predict their majorities (er... pluralities? victory margins? thee knoweth what I mean...)

c) predict which candidate will come third in each by-election

And as a tiebreaker: predict who'll get blamed for bad results for the Liberals and/or BQ. If the results are not bad for those two parties, predict how the NDP/Tories will attempt to spin their way to moral "victory".

[Verily]

Outremont:
NDP wins
1,500-vote margin over Liberals
Bloc in third

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot:
Bloc wins
5,000-vote margin over Conservatives
NDP in third

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean
Conservatives win
200-vote margin over Bloc
Liberals in third

Dion will be blamed for the dismal Liberal results (losing Outremont, fifth place in Saint-Hyacinthe), and calls will increase for him to step down as leader of the Liberals, though he will not fall for at least the next few weeks. The Bloc will be upset with its results (third in Outremont and losing Roberval by a hair), but will not experience any sort of internal trauma nor blame anyone in particular (other than imperialist anglo-Canada).

[Hatman 🍁]

a) predict the winners of each by-election
Outremont: NDP
Roberval-LSJ: Cons
St Hyacinthe-Bagot: BQ

b) predict their majorities
Mulcair will win by 1000 votes
Cons will also win by 1000 votes in RLSJ
Bloc win win by 6000 votes in SHB

c) predict which candidate will come third in each by-election
BQ in Outremont
Liberal in RLSJ
and NDP in SHB

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Dion will get blamed for a Liberal loss obviously. The Bloc wont get blamed as much, but who knows... The NDP will spin a close race to indicate the Liberals are faltering in Quebec and the NDP is making a gain, even though they lost. The tories will say the same.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well this sucks. My cable's out, so I can't watch anything on TV. GREAT! The greatest thing to happen to the NDP in my memory, and I wont be able to watch it. grrrr

[Hatman 🍁]

One can watch CPAC on the internet though, http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&section_id=22&template_id=22&lang=e

[Hash]

Poor you. And I need to be in bed

[Hatman 🍁]

Cable's back!

You'll be in bed Hashemite? WTF

[Hash]

Cable's back!

You'll be in bed Hashemite? WTF

School tommorow.

But got an extension. RDI has good coverage.

Go Green

[StateBoiler]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

[ag]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

[StateBoiler]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

Sorry I missed that one.

Why's the Bloc going down? General discontent with them? I understand that ADQ does not exist on the federal scene, but do their members run as Bloc candidates in federal elections?

[ag]

So the general consensus prediction is one Tory win, one NDP win, and one Bloc win?

With the only change being from Bloc to Tory in Roberval.

You don't think that a change from LPC to NDP (NDP! in Quebec!) is a real change?

Sorry I missed that one.

Why's the Bloc going down? General discontent with them? I understand that ADQ does not exist on the federal scene, but do their members run as BQ candidates in federal elections?

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

[Verily]

NDP leads in very early returns from Outremont. The Conservatives have a big lead in Roberval with 80/194 reporting. Bloc ahead about 10% in Saint-Hyacinthe with only a few polls reporting.

[StateBoiler]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

[Verily]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late, and the Bloc is feeling the pressure. There are a lot of soft nationalists in Quebec, especially the North, who are easily wooed away from the Bloc by platitudes.

[ag]

So far, NDP is leading in Outremont, Con in Roberval and PQ in St. Hyacinthe. Outremont barely started counting, though.

[Verily]

It looks like the Conservatives have won Roberval. Their lead is enormous with about half reporting. I suppose it could be mostly Conservative-leaning polls (which would explain the abnormally low NDP and Green votes), but still...

[ag]

Roberval seems done - 57% w/ over half reporting. The suspense of the night (if any) will be Outremont.

[StateBoiler]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late...

Isn't that kind of "William Gladstone and Ireland" to play that card.

[Verily]

You mean PQ.  ADQ would be closer to PC (though, of course, no direct relation).

So the Conservatives winning a seat from Bloc does not necessarily mean that support for Quebec sovereignty in that district is declining (although the Conservatives will probably claim otherwise)?

Sort of. The Conservatives have certainly tried to play up their "Quebec is a nation" credentials of late...

Isn't that kind of "William Gladstone and Ireland" to play that card.

The Conservatives may very well be shooting themselves in the foot long-term.

Personally, I'd rather see an indignant but mostly harmless Bloc MP than a Conservative MP, but apparently the other non-Conservative-supporters don't see it that way.